Wind Shares

The Call of Cthulhu

2012-01-24T22:38:00.000-08:00

Mr. Robert Jones sat alone in his vast but poorly-lit mansion in Spookysburg, R.I., reading the Prominent Citizen Gazette, when the telephone rang.

“Will you accept a collect call from Cthulhu?” said the speaker on the other end. The voice was mechanical and recorded-sounding, except for the last word, which sounded like a monkey choking to death on a human baby that was choking to death on the same monkey when the monkey was a baby (via time travel). Robert Jones was aghast: he had not become a prominent citizen by accepting a bunch of collect calls, not even from his kidnapped son. He answered, “No,” and hung up.

The phone immediately rang again. “Come on, bro,” said the cold, emotionless voice. “Accept the charges. You don’t know what it will be. It could turn out to be a live sex chat for all you know.”

“Everyone knows those chat lines are full of nothing but dudes,” Jones responded, and hung up again.

Hours later, the phone rang once more. “All right, you win,” said the speaker. “We can’t trick you into taking the call. You have to accept the call through your own free will—that’s how the rules of this thing work. And you’re clearly just too smart to fall for something like that. Would you agree that this is true?”

“Yes,” answered Mr. Jones. This response automatically caused the charges to be accepted, and upon hearing the call, Jones was driven instantly, permanently mad.

Word of Mr. Jones’s condition spread rapidly through the town. The news raised in the minds of many townspeople a fearful question: Had Jones been driven so mad that he pooped himself? It had been known to happen. When it arrived a few days later, the terse headlines in the local weekly paper—

ROB’T JONES DRIVEN

MAD, POOPS SELF

_____________________

Creepy Phone Call

To Blame.

___________________

DID WE MENTION

THE POOP

—simply raised more troubling questions: Why were madmen the only ones allowed to sit around in their own poop all day? Think of all the time and effort that would save. It probably wouldn't be as bad as everybody made it sound. But, no, that sort of thing wasn't for the likes of Joe Sane: it was a luxury strictly reserved for the 1% (lunatics). What a rip. And people's faith in the basic underpinnings of society slowly began to disintegrate, which had been Cthulhu's plan all along.

But a further shock was still to come. When the police traced the calls to Jones's house, they discovered that TELEPHONES HAD NOT BEEN INVENTED YET.

The Johnnys, and Their Methods

2012-01-17T09:57:00.001-08:00

The following had compiled from a series of interviews with "enforcers" for a sub-branch of the New York City Mafia.

Subject A, age 42: My gimmick, f'r instance, is fireworks. Y'know, like, puttin' guys' eyes out with sparklers, taping cherry bombs inside their mouths--let me tell you, word got around pretty quick that nobody had better fuck with Johnny Fireworks.

Why fireworks? Hey, yo, a guy’s gotta have a gimmick, am I right? Unless you’re like Johnny No-Gimmick over here. Yo, that guy’s the craziest one of all, ‘cause there ain’t no predictin’ what he’ll do. He never does the same thing twice. That’s his gimmick.

I mean, just the other day, I had t’ listen to complaints from Johnny Chainsaw and Johnny Nunchucks and Irish Johnny Chainsaw about how Johnny No-Gimmick was rippin’ off their gimmicks. And I had t’ tell them, ‘Look, this is just how he operates. But he’ll only do it once. By next week, he’ll be on to some other gimmick, and then I’ll probably have to be hearin’ this same thing from Johnny Deadly Nightshade.’ And then there’s Johnny Peanut Allergy: every week, when we get a new contract to kill some squealer, we’re at the weekly status meeting, looking over the guy’s medical records, like always, and Johnny Peanut Allergy’s like, ‘Yo, does dis guy got a peanut allergy?’ ‘No, Johnny Peanut Allergy, sorry.’ And then the next week, we got another target: ‘What about dis guy? Does dis guy got a peanut allergy?’ ‘No, Johnny Peanut Allergy, just penicillin and strawberries.’ ‘You’d tell me if any of dese guys had peanut allergies, right?’ ‘Yes, Johnny Peanut Allergy, I promise! You don’t even have to be here all the time—we’ll call you!’ (sighs) But he don’t listen.

Subject B, age 25: D’you know dat one out of every two hundred and fifty Americans has a severe peanut allergy? And dat number is growing every day. So statistically, one o’ dese guys is eventually gonna take money from da wrong people, or see somethin’ he shouldn’t have, and when dat day comes, I’m gonna be like, (taps chest proudly) ‘Yo. I got dis.’

Subject A: An’ t’ tell you the truth, even dealin’ wit’ these mooks is better than talkin’ to Johnny Radon Exposure. That guy…

Subject C, age 76: Look, I don’t wanna say nothin’ bad about this generation, but…people these days ain’t got no patience. It seems like, when they put out a hit on a guy, nobody’s willing to wait thirty-five years for him to develop lung cancer from radon exposure anymore. I mean, every week somebody’s asking me about some contract of mine or another: ‘Is he dead yet? Is he dead yet?’ (frustrated) No! All right, no! Not yet! But do you have any idea of the damage that’s being done to his mitochondrial DNA? You can’t put a price tag on that! (shakes head sadly) I tell you, this business just hasn’t been the same since Johnny Gunshot showed up.

“Monday Musings,” by Zombo the Conqueror

2011-12-27T09:08:00.000-08:00

I am called Zombo. Zombo the Conqueror. Or, to hear some tell it—Zombo the Mad.

Which, I gotta say, I don’t really think is fair. Sure, maybe the first time you hear that some guy’s got a plan to take over the world with an army of superpowered zombie cyborgs, you might consider it madness. I’m a rational guy. I get that. But once it’s been successfully put into action, once he’s conquered two-thirds of the globe, wouldn’t that make you reconsider? Wouldn’t that make you think, “Huh, I guess I was wrong. Well, it happens. I didn’t see Facebook coming either”? But, no, if you look at the flyers scattered by the rebellion, it’s still always “Zombo the Mad did this” or “Zombo the Mad said that” or “Zombo the Mad harvested the brain stems from more schoolchildren to feed his unholy army.” I mean, criticizing my policies is fair game, but ad hominem attacks like calling me “mad” aren’t going to get us anywhere. Sometimes I’ll stop by the house of one of my opponents, to try to have a rational discussion with them about the issues, to try to see where they’re coming from, but all I ever get is “You’re mad, you’re mad” and “Oh, God, these zombie cyborgs are ripping out my spinal column.” It’s frustrating.

My friend Steve tells me that I need to just let things like that go, that maybe those kinds of insecurities might be what drove me to want to conquer the world in the first place. And, I have to admit, he’s probably right. Steve’s very insightful about that kind of stuff. We’ve been trying to come up with some sort of title for Steve that properly reflects his contributions, but it’s harder than you might think. Our first idea was “Steve the Conqueror’s Friend,” but we realized that it would sound like there was some other guy named “Steve the Conqueror” and that Steve was his friend, and people would just get confused. I suggested “Zombo the Conqueror’s Friend Steve,” but Steve said that it was too long for everyday use, and besides, he kind of wanted a title that didn’t define him exclusively in relation to me. Normally if someone had displayed such insolence I’d immediately have him fed to the infra-sharks, but not Steve. Steve’s a really good guy. I remember going over to his house one night after I’d had a real tough day, when I’d gotten turned down three times for loans to finance my zombie cyborg army. I explained my idea to Steve, and he paused Zelda for a minute and told me, “Sounds like a good plan to me, bro,” and it really lifted my spirits. I later had all those loan officers vivisected, but I always wanted to reward Steve, and having his own title is the only thing he’s ever asked me for—and, let me tell you, when you’re an all-powerful conqueror, you come to learn how rare that is. Usually everybody wants something from you—I once had this cousin I hadn’t seen in years call me up out of the blue and ask for control over the Iberian Peninsula. (I had him vivisected—man, I was really into that for a while.) Anyway, Steve’s great. I hope all of you are lucky enough to have a friend like that.

Also, what’s the deal with airline food? I hate to deal in cliches here, but I'm genuinely curious. Somehow I just assumed it would get better after my reign began, but I was on a flight to Dallas a couple months ago and it was still terrible. When I got home, I held a meeting with the heads of catering for all the major airlines, and put them to the sword, and then I spent a few weeks sorting through resumes and holding interviews with chefs and reorganizing all the departments, and then after all that the next time I took a flight the food was just as bad as ever. All right, I’m probably not being entirely honest there, I guess it was a little better, I liked that they started using red onions on the sandwiches instead of white, but, still we’re talking about moving from a D to, like, a C+ here. And while all this was going on there was this uprising in Kamchatka that I probably could have put down in less than a week if I hadn’t had my hands full with all of that, so eventually I just had to give up and admit that I couldn’t micromanage everything—unless I wanted to spend my whole workday on this one problem, airline food wasn’t going to be something I could control any more than I could my mutant iguanas. It made me realize that, whatever frustrating situations we encounter in life, most people out there are just doing their best to make sure things run smoothly, but sometimes life gets in the way. It’s something you might want to think about next time you’re upset because you’re stuck in line at the grocery store, or being devoured by rampaging mutant iguanas. Little tips like that have really helped me learn patience.

Zombo the Conqueror can be contacted c/o the mind-probes implanted in your amygdala. Due to the volume of pleas received, individual responses cannot be provided.

Little-known holiday facts

2011-12-19T10:42:00.000-08:00

In the early part of the twentieth century, the Wienauer family of Milwaukee was one of the nation’s largest clothing retailers, with hundreds of shops throughout the country. After the family patriarch died, his children took over the business. However, the youngest son, Donald, eventually grew tired of the conservative and staid nature of the family business, and set out on his own. He later settled in San Francisco, where he opened the country’s first clothing store to specifically cater to the homosexual community. The store became a great success, and an institution in the city. Knowing how much the gay community prized large holiday celebrations, Donald began to hold huge sales before certain holidays, like Mardi Gras, Halloween and Christmas, and soon the store’s campy radio commercials, with specially written jingles for each holiday, became perhaps even more famous than the store itself. In fact, one of the Christmas jingles for the store became so popular that it’s still sung to this day, often by singers who don’t realize its origin, or recognize that it was originally an advertisement for the store referenced in its lyrics: Don Wienauer Gay Apparel.

----

Did you know that the children's singer Raffi, when he lived in America in the late ‘70s, worked as a clerk to John Paul Stevens? Apparently, in 1979, Raffi was in charge of supplying the refreshments for the Supreme Court’s annual Christmas party. It’s said that Potter Stewart walked into the party, took one look at the bowl of eggnog, and told him, “That’s the cheap, store-brand eggnog. It’s terrible. I want the real stuff.” Raffi replied, “You haven’t even tasted it yet. How do you know you won’t like it? What’s wrong with it?” Stewart responded, “I shall not further attempt to define poor nog, Raffi, but I know it when I see it.”

The Pocket Guide to Not-Quite-Legal Scenic Destinations

2011-12-12T10:39:00.001-08:00

Some of America's coolest, most beautiful destinations are, strictly speaking, barred to the public. But this handy guide shows how an intrepid traveler could, hypothetically, check some of them out for himself--not that we'd ever endorse breaking the law, of course!

Jerimoth Hill (Foster, RI)

The highest point in the state of Rhode Island at 812 feet, Jerimoth Hill sits on private property and is officially off-limits to hikers. But simply vault the fence at the unattended western edge of the property--especially on weekdays, nobody's likely to stop you.

Abandoned Subway Tunnels (Indianapolis, IN)

Construction began on these in the mid-1970s, but was abandoned when funding ran out. Now they're an urban spelunker's dream. The entrance to the only completed station (at 16th and Rankin) is gated and padlocked, but our sources tell us that this can be easily defeated with a common set of lockpicks. Be sure to take a buddy with you--these tunnels may not be as dangerous as the city will say they are, but there's still a risk from falling debris.

American Taxidermy Museum (Grand Rapids, MI)

One of the creepiest, campiest museum experiences in the country, this was another victim of a lack of funding, as it was shuttered "temporarily" in 2008 with all the exhibits still inside. Just chuck one of the many local rocks through one of the windows and crawl inside--I mean, it's an abandoned building. Who's gonna care?

Cimarron Observation Tower (Morton County, KS)

Officially intended for gathering meteorological data, this observation tower in the Cimarron National Grassland in southwestern Kansas is open to visitors during the day and offers some of the most astonishing views available in the notoriously flat Midwest. But bureaucratic decisions mean that it's closed after sunset, despite its prime location for uncluttered night-sky viewing. That's easy enough to get around, though--there's only one park ranger guarding the entrance to the tower at night, and a rag soaked in chloroform should keep him out of your hair. (We recommend Grunnet's Organic Chloroform--it's a little pricier, but packs just as much of a kick as the chloroforms you'll find in big-box stores, without any of the artificial additives.) He'll wake up a few hours later with a killer headache, but there'll be no troubling gaps in your memory when you look back on that night and some of the best star views you'll ever see. The Perseid meteor shower (late July and August) is a prime time to visit.

The Vogel Greenhouse (Kingman, AZ)

This backyard greenhouse tended by retired letter carrier Eugene Vogel and his wife Alberta has been cited by several national organizations as perhaps the best example of indoor gardening in North America. Unfortunately, the greenhouse can only be accessed through the Vogels' home at 114 Mohave Court, and the couple has chosen to restrict it to visitors in light of their advancing years and Eugene's struggle with bladder cancer. But don't worry--the Vogels keep a spare key under the flower pot on their front porch (so trusting!). Just come by one night after the Vogels have gone to bed (they won't hear you come in; their hearing isn't what it used to be) and sneak through the kitchen to the sliding doors leading to the greenhouse. Except...you forgot to check the TV listings, didn't you? You didn't know that NCIS got bumped an hour later than normal because of the Presidential address. So the Vogels are, uncharacteristically, still awake when you enter the kitchen. And they start screaming at you--Alberta yelling that she's going to call the police, Eugene saying that he's going to get his gun. You can't go to jail. You're still young. Your whole life is still ahead of you. Everything you've worked for would be ruined. And someone like you would never survive in prison. But these people--they're old. They've lived their lives. And if they hadn't been so selfish as to bar visitors from their greenhouse, you wouldn't be in this situation to begin with. You see a meat cleaver in the block on the kitchen counter. Right within arm's reach. It's practically a sign from the heavens. Or somewhere. You've got no connection to these people. You don't even live in this state. No one will ever suspect you. Do it. DO IT. Once you begin, it's easier than you would have thought it would be. Part of you thinks that maybe this is what you were meant for all along. But what you didn't count on was that the Vogels' daughter Claire sometimes stops by the house to drop off groceries on her way home from work (she works the evening shift at the hospital; how could you have known that?). She grows concerned when she finds the door unlocked. You both see each other simultaneously as she walks into the kitchen. Your eyes lock. The cleaver still in your hand. But once you start something like this, you have to see it through. Till the end. TIP: Don't leave without taking a whiff of Alberta's stand of rare, fragrant Balinese orchids--some of the best specimens you can find outside of the wild.

Death (Here. Now.)

Wondering what to do when you've run out of adventurous destinations to explore, and you're also haunted by memories of screams and blood that no amount of drink or drugs can blot out? Well, it was Peter Pan who said, "To die would be an awfully big adventure." After all, if you believe in a soul at all, you're pretty sure yours is already forfeit. And there must be some reason why you've kept that bloody meat cleaver even though all logic tells you to get rid of it. Will you find the cold maw of oblivion, or the eternal fires of Hell, or another dimension so far beyond human comprehension that even to contemplate it would drive mortal minds mad? Only one way to find out! (Download our FREE iPhone app for directions on how to make it count as a blood sacrifice!)

Published by Tesseract Publishing, Ltd., a division of the Black Church of Zog-Shoggoth.
Coming summer 2012: THE POCKET GUIDE TO EATING LOCALLY. If you bring an open mind to the table, there are a lot more dining options available than you might think.

Gross Wins Above Average - Active Leaders - 2011 update

2011-10-09T08:55:00.000-07:00

Alex Rodriguez 72.9
Manny Ramirez 63.9
Albert Pujols 63.2
Chipper Jones 55.3
Jim Thome 45.6
Derek Jeter 45.3
Vladimir Guerrero 41.9
Roy Halladay 37.6
Jason Giambi 35.1
Miguel Cabrera 35.1
Lance Berkman 34.3
Ivan Rodriguez 31.2
Mariano Rivera 30.3
Carlos Beltran 29.2
Todd Helton 29.0
David Ortiz 28.7
Jorge Posada 27.6
Scott Rolen 27.3
Tim Hudson 27.2
Bobby Abreu 26.7
Roy Oswalt 25.2
Matt Holliday 24.2
CC Sabathia 23.5
Joe Mauer 23.2
David Wright 23.1
Hanley Ramirez 23.1
Magglio Ordonez 22.8
Chase Utley 22.5
Carlos Zambrano 22.0
Ichiro Suzuki 21.7
Miguel Tejada 21.7
Ryan Braun 20.5

Wins Above Average leaders, 2011

2011-10-02T10:44:00.000-07:00

AL - 2011 NL - 2011

1. Cabrera (DET) 6.5 1. Kemp (LAD) 7.4
2. Bautista (TOR) 6.4 2. Braun (MIL) 6.5
3. Verlander (DET) 5.1 3. Reyes (NYM) 5.5
Ellsbury (BOS) 5.1 4. Kershaw (LAD) 4.6
5. Gonzalez (BOS) 4.6 Lee (PHI) 4.6
6. Gordon (KCR) 4.3 6. Ramirez (CHC) 4.5
7. Weaver (LAA) 4.1 Sandoval (SFG) 4.5
Wilson (TEX) 4.1 8. Berkman (STL) 4.4
9. Napoli (TEX) 3.9 Halladay (PHI) 4.4
10. Ortiz (BOS) 3.7 Fielder (MIL) 4.4
Avila (DET) 3.7

Let's Kill All the Belgians: Update!

2011-06-15T13:48:00.000-07:00

Belgian media coverage appears to have driven a lot of traffic here (much of it very, very angry), but unfortunately, Lulu has removed the book from its site (when has appeasement ever worked?), so for the moment, nobody can order it. (UPDATE: Lulu has reactivated the book! Now with a great big "SATIRE" tag! Probably a good idea!) And you can check out some of my other writing here--hopefully, that stuff is less likely to provoke an international incident.

For the record, the book is intended as a satire of ignorant American attitudes. But the response did cause me to learn quite a bit about what else Belgium has created. (Like French fries. Who knew? But, I gotta say, from a marketing standpoint, you guys could have done a little better job naming those.)

Swamp of the Dead

2011-04-05T12:18:00.000-07:00

“Holy shit,” observed Hillary. “Zombies.”

“Those aren’t zombies,” Brad said. “I think those are egrets.”

“Awk,” said one of the egrets.

“Let’s agree to disagree,” Hillary said. She pulled her sawed-off shotgun out of her bag and began firing into the clutch gathered on the swamp.

“I think those things are endangered,” Brad said, wincing at all the blood and feathers.

“Zombies aren’t endangered,” Hillary said matter-of-factly. “They’re everywhere.”

“Let me ask you something,” Brad said. “In all the time we’ve been doing this, how many times has it actually turned out to be zombies?”

“Twice,” Hillary replied. “At least twice.”

“We don’t know for sure that guy was a zombie,” Brad pointed out.

“We shot him in the head and he died, didn’t he?” Hillary explained. “That’s what zombies do. Ergo, he was a zombie.”

“Well, then, what about that other guy?” Brad asked. “The one in Detroit. What about him?”

“Let’s agree to disagree,” Hillary said.

“God!!” Brad yelped. “Stop saying that! When you say that, it just immediately cuts off any debate, and makes it impossible to— Do you have any idea how annoying that is?”

“Maybe you are a zombie,” Hillary said, slowly turning the shotgun towards him. But then she dropped the gun and smiled, a smile that did not reach her eyes. “Ha-ha. I am kidding,” she said joylessly. “I know you are not a zombie.” But with every night she spent awake staring at him and worrying, she was less and less sure.

“Can we go now?” Brad asked. “I’m hungry.”

“All right,” Hillary said. “I think we’ve done all we can here.” Hillary got back into the van. Brad started to climb into the passenger seat beside her, but she stopped him with a look.

“You know the rules,” she said. “Back seat. It’s safer.”

Brad rolled his eyes and groaned, “God, Mommmm…” He clambered into the van’s back seat and buckled his seatbelt.

As the van pulled away from the campsite, he noticed that the oak leaves were starting to yellow. “I bet the other kids are going back to school about now,” he said, half to himself.

“You know you can’t go back to school,” Hillary told him. “It’s full of zombies.”

Single-Franchise All-Star Teams

2011-02-27T10:16:00.000-08:00

Inspired by this post, I've put together All-Star teams for each of MLB's original sixteen franchises composed of players who spent their entire careers with the team. The lists are based mainly on Baseball-Reference's WAR, and, for the sake of simplicity, players are listed at the positions where they played the most career games. A couple of these players have moved on to new teams in 2011, but until the season actually starts, they still technically count.

YANKEES

C Bill Dickey
1B Lou Gehrig
2B Gil McDougald
3B Red Rolfe
SS Derek Jeter
LF Roy White
CF Mickey Mantle
RF Tommy Henrich
P Whitey Ford

RED SOX

C Jason Varitek
1B Kevin Youkilis
2B Bobby Doerr
3B Tim Naehring
SS Rico Petrocelli
LF Ted Williams
CF Dom DiMaggio
RF Olaf Henriksen
P Mel Parnell

ORIOLES/BROWNS

C Chris Hoiles
1B Guy Sturdy
2B Brian Roberts
3B Brooks Robinson
SS Cal Ripken
LF Nolan Reimold
CF Milt Byrnes
RF Nick Markakis
P Jim Palmer

TWINS/SENATORS

C Joe Mauer
1B Kent Hrbek
2B Ray Morgan
3B Ossie Bluege
SS Cecil Travis
LF Lew Ford
CF Kirby Puckett
RF Tony Oliva
P Walter Johnson

WHITE SOX

C Ron Karkovice
1B Deacon Jones
2B Gus Dundon
3B Lee Tannehill
SS Luke Appling
LF Guy Curtright
CF Johnny Mostil
RF Hank Steinbacher
P Ted Lyons

TIGERS

C Bill Freehan
1B Ron Cash
2B Charlie Gehringer
3B Brandon Inge
SS Alan Trammell
LF Bobby Higginson
CF Mickey Stanley
RF Al Kaline
P Tommy Bridges

INDIANS

C Harry Bemis
1B Luke Easter
2B Harry Hinchman
3B Al Rosen
SS Ray Chapman
LF Jack Graney
CF Grady Sizemore
RF Beau Allred
P Bob Feller

ATHLETICS

C Kurt Suzuki
1B Daric Barton
2B Mark Ellis
3B Eric Chavez
SS Cliff Pennington
LF Heinie Heitmuller
CF Harry Armbruster
RF Travis Buck
P Eddie Rommel

PHILLIES

C Carlos Ruiz
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
3B Mike Schmidt
SS Jimmy Rollins
LF Tony Longmire
CF Fred Osborn
RF Buzz Arlett
P Cole Hamels

BRAVES

C Brian McCann
1B Ken Smith
2B Martin Prado
3B Chipper Jones
SS Billy Urbanski
LF Joe Connolly
CF Red Massey
RF Jason Heyward
P Rick Camp

REDS

C Johnny Bench
1B Joey Votto
2B Bid McPhee
3B Rafael Almeida
SS Barry Larkin
LF Fred Odwell
CF Bug Holliday
RF Jay Bruce
P Mario Soto

CARDINALS

C Yadier Molina
1B Stan Musial
2B Skip Schumaker
3B Whitey Kurowski
SS Brendan Ryan
LF Ray Blades
CF Terry Moore
RF Augie Bergamo
P Bob Gibson

CUBS

C Geovany Soto
1B Ernie Banks
2B Don Johnson
3B Stan Hack
SS Charlie Hollocher
LF Denver Grigsby
CF Bill Lange
RF Kosuke Fukudome
P Carlos Zambrano

PIRATES

C Ryan Doumit
1B Jim Nealon
2B Bill Mazeroski
3B Pie Traynor
SS Gene Alley
LF Willie Stargell
CF Andrew McCutchen
RF Roberto Clemente
P Sam Leever

GIANTS

C Harry Danning
1B Bill Terry
2B Robby Thompson
3B Jim Davenport
SS Travis Jackson
LF Jo-Jo Moore
CF Marvin Benard
RF Mel Ott
P Carl Hubbell

DODGERS

C Roy Campanella
1B Wes Parker
2B Jackie Robinson
3B Don LeJohn
SS Pee Wee Reese
LF George Shuba
CF Johnny Frederick
RF Carl Furillo
P Sandy Koufax

The "Many Stalins" Theory of Quantum Digital Imaging

2011-02-12T10:22:00.001-08:00

Consider a computer monitor. Or the display on a cell phone or digital camera. Take the number of pixels in the display and raise it to the power of the number of discrete colors each pixel can show. That is the total number of distinct images the screen can display. It’s an incomprehensibly huge number, but it’s also finite. Every image that the screen can possibly show is included in that number, regardless of whether it’s ever existed or not. Anything you can imagine, no matter how beautiful or grotesque, is in that set. You having a threesome with Joseph Stalin and a mule? It’s in there. Just waiting for the right string of digital information to bring it to life.

But, of course, the overwhelming majority of those potential images will simply be random arrays of color, conveying no information at all. The percentage of those images that will be identifiable as real things is vanishingly tiny. Similar, perhaps, to the number of atoms that make up the human race in comparison to all the particles in the universe. And that Stalin image will be one of them. But, when you think about it, you’ll realize that you having a threesome with Stalin and a mule won’t just be one of the images—it will be billions. Every possible position and grouping, all the possible backgrounds and accessories—they’re all in there. And then imagine that the image shows your first-grade teacher standing next to you, watching the proceedings with a look of mild disgust. And then replace her with your second-grade teacher. And then replace her, in succession, with all of the other seven billion people on Earth. And then with Harpo Marx. And every other dead person. And then do it all over again with all these people displaying not disgust, but barely-contained enthusiasm. And replace them with Batman as drawn by Neal Adams. And then Batman as drawn by Frank Miller. And then repeat it with Stalin wearing a blue propeller beanie. And then an orange one. As a minute’s thought will make clear, the number of potential Stalin-mule threeways that can be depicted will exceed the number of humans who have ever lived by incalculable orders of magnitude. And then what if it’s not a mule at all, but a draft horse? And sometimes the draft horse has a white spot on his head?

You can see where this is going. Anyone can imagine the number of visible variations to the Stalin scenario that maintain the overall theme spiraling off to infinity. But, as we’ve already shown, there aren’t an infinite number of images that the screen can display. We’re working with a tiny percentage of an already finite number. So as the number of Stalin threesomes proliferates towards infinity, it seems that they would fill up all the available image slots that aren’t taken by random color. And thus, logically speaking, the only recognizable image that a computer screen could show would be you having sex with Joseph Stalin and a farm animal. So, in light of these facts, Mr. Thompson, it hardly seems reasonable to blame me for Photoshopping that picture of you and emailing it to everyone in the office, since their computers could never really have shown anything else. It’s simple mathematics. ... Yes, I did think that might work. ... No, I didn’t know that about your grandmother and the gulags; that’s very interesting. So do I have time to clean out my desk, or… Okay. Well, you can just ship everything to—Ow. All right, guys, I’m leaving. There’s no need to—Ow.

2011 MLB position-player projections

2011-01-10T12:51:00.000-08:00

This should be pretty self-explanatory by now. (Previous entries, with methodology: 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010.) As Sean Smith has stopped providing his defensive projections, I calculated my own for this year using his Total Zone data, which at least gives this list more of a raison d'etre. As always, all projections are in runs above average per 150 games/630 PAs.

name off pos def tot

Albert Pujols 68 -14 9 63
Joe Mauer 39 10 7 56
Evan Longoria 28 0 13 42
Troy Tulowitzki 17 8 12 38
Hanley Ramirez 33 8 -5 37
Shin-Soo Choo 36 -8 8 36
Carlos Beltran 22 2 12 36
Matt Holliday 38 -5 1 34
Chase Utley 25 2 7 34
Adrian Gonzalez 41 -14 6 33
Joey Votto 48 -14 -2 31
Angel Pagan 13 2 16 31
Miguel Cabrera 45 -14 -2 29
Kevin Youkilis 36 -14 6 29
Brian McCann 19 10 -1 28
Dustin Pedroia 17 2 9 28
Manny Ramirez 40 -5 -8 28
Chipper Jones 25 0 2 27
Andres Torres 15 2 9 26
Ryan Zimmerman 25 0 1 26
Nelson Cruz 27 -8 7 26
Ryan Braun 34 -5 -3 25
Robinson Cano 18 2 5 25
Josh Hamilton 36 -5 -6 25
Scott Rolen 15 0 10 25
Victor Martinez 18 10 -3 25
Justin Morneau 34 -14 3 23
Carl Crawford 21 -5 7 22
Ichiro Suzuki 21 -8 10 22
Rafael Furcal 13 8 2 22
Ian Kinsler 13 2 7 22
Jayson Werth 27 -8 3 21
Drew Stubbs 5 2 14 21
Jose Reyes 11 8 1 21
Mark Teixeira 27 -14 7 20
Adrian Beltre 15 0 6 20
Yunel Escobar 0 8 12 20
Kelly Johnson 12 2 5 19
Yadier Molina -3 10 12 19
Carlos Ruiz 4 10 5 19
Justin Upton 13 -8 13 18
Alex Rodriguez 25 0 -7 18
David Wright 25 0 -8 18
David DeJesus 13 -8 13 17
Casey Blake 6 0 11 17
Ben Zobrist 14 -8 10 16
Carlos Gonzalez 19 -5 2 16
Franklin Gutierrez -3 2 17 16
Geovany Soto 7 10 -1 16
J.D. Drew 15 -8 9 16
Martin Prado 16 2 -3 15
Jason Heyward 17 -8 5 15
Prince Fielder 34 -14 -5 14
Matt Kemp 11 2 1 14
Torii Hunter 17 2 -5 14
Andrew McCutchen 16 2 -5 13
Shane Victorino 8 2 3 13
Colby Rasmus 8 2 3 13
Grady Sizemore 11 2 0 13
Marco Scutaro -1 8 6 13
Pablo Sandoval 16 0 -3 13
Lance Berkman 25 -14 1 12
Jorge Posada 10 10 -8 12
Brett Gardner 0 -5 16 12
Stephen Drew 5 8 -1 11
B.J. Upton 0 2 9 11
Derek Jeter 8 8 -5 11
Mike Cameron 5 2 4 11
Jason Bartlett 5 8 -3 11
Casey McGehee 13 0 -2 10
Chase Headley 3 0 8 10
Coco Crisp 4 2 4 10
Dan Uggla 15 2 -7 10
Adam Jones 2 2 6 10
J.J. Hardy -3 8 5 10
Nick Markakis 17 -8 1 10
Andre Ethier 26 -8 -8 10
Ramon Santiago -7 8 8 9
Josh Willingham 17 -5 -3 9
Ryan Howard 22 -14 1 9
Ryan Raburn 10 -5 4 9
Miguel Montero 4 10 -5 9
Matt Wieters -5 10 4 9
Ramon Hernandez -1 10 0 9
Nick Swisher 10 -8 6 9
Kendry Morales 20 -14 2 9
Alberto Callaspo 1 0 8 8
Jimmy Rollins -3 8 4 8
Jamey Carroll -2 8 3 8
Craig Counsell -7 8 7 8
Marlon Byrd 7 2 0 8
Omar Infante 6 2 0 8
Curtis Granderson 5 2 1 8
Brendan Ryan -17 8 17 8
Asdrubal Cabrera 4 8 -4 8
Will Venable 5 -8 11 8
Howie Kendrick 3 2 2 8
Brian Roberts 12 2 -6 7
Russell Martin -4 10 1 7
Kelly Shoppach 1 10 -5 7
Austin Jackson 7 2 -3 7
Jose Bautista 19 -8 -5 6
Alexei Ramirez -4 8 2 6
Ryan Doumit 4 10 -8 6
Jason Bay 19 -5 -8 6
Orlando Hudson 3 2 1 6
Jose Lopez -6 0 12 6
Adam Dunn 25 -14 -5 6
Paul Konerko 22 -14 -2 6
Magglio Ordonez 18 -8 -4 6
Maicer Izturis -1 0 7 6
Mark Ellis -5 2 8 6
Miguel Olivo -5 10 1 5
Aaron Hill -4 2 7 5
Chris Iannetta -2 10 -3 5
Yorvit Torrealba -7 10 3 5
Matt Diaz 8 -5 2 5
Jay Bruce 7 -8 6 5
Juan Uribe -2 8 -2 5
Kurt Suzuki -8 10 3 5
Cliff Pennington -5 8 2 5
John Buck -2 10 -4 5
Milton Bradley 8 -5 1 4
Mike Aviles 6 2 -4 4
Vernon Wells 7 2 -5 4
Mike Young 9 0 -5 4
Gregg Zaun -4 10 -3 4
Raul Ibanez 15 -5 -7 4
Rickie Weeks 11 2 -10 3
Jack Wilson -16 8 11 3
Derrek Lee 14 -14 3 3
Michael Bourn -4 2 5 2
Corey Hart 9 -8 1 2
Ryan Ludwick 11 -8 -1 2
Rajai Davis 1 2 -1 2
Alexis Rios 2 2 -2 2
Rod Barajas -13 10 5 2
Aubrey Huff 16 -14 0 2
Jim Thome 23 -22 - 1
Lyle Overbay 5 -14 10 1
Seth Smith 2 -5 4 1
Juan Pierre -6 -5 12 1
Brian Schneider -10 10 2 1
Chris Coghlan 7 -5 -1 1
Alex Gonzalez -12 8 5 1
Billy Butler 20 -14 -5 1
John Baker -1 10 -8 1
Nick Hundley -6 10 -3 1
Scott Podsednik 0 -5 6 1
Ryan Sweeney 1 -8 8 1
Brandon Phillips 1 2 -3 1
Neil Walker 8 2 -9 1
Erick Aybar -6 8 -2 1
Aramis Ramirez 9 0 -8 1
Ronny Paulino -11 10 1 1
Felipe Lopez -2 0 2 0
Jacoby Ellsbury -1 2 -1 0
Carlos Guillen 2 2 -4 0
Chris Snyder -10 10 0 0
Nate McLouth 5 2 -7 0
Mike Napoli 13 -14 1 0
A.J. Pierzynski -8 10 -3 0
David Murphy 6 -5 -1 -1
Ivan Rodriguez -16 10 5 -1
Gerardo Parra -10 -5 14 -1
Jeff Keppinger -4 2 1 -1
Chris Young -2 2 0 -1
Starlin Castro 0 8 -9 -1
Placido Polanco -1 0 0 -1
Mark DeRosa 1 -5 3 -1
Eric Hinske 4 -5 0 -1
Ike Davis 10 -14 3 -1
Rick Ankiel -5 2 1 -1
Cody Ross 1 2 -4 -1
Jhonny Peralta -3 0 1 -1
Cristian Guzman -6 2 2 -2
Ian Desmond -3 8 -6 -2
Kosuke Fukudome -2 -8 8 -2
Alfonso Soriano 2 -5 1 -2
Ronnie Belliard 1 2 -5 -2
Humberto Quintero -21 10 9 -2
Elvis Andrus -13 8 2 -2
Pat Burrell 3 -5 0 -2
Kevin Kouzmanoff -5 0 2 -2
Nick Punto -16 0 13 -2
Adam Kennedy -5 2 1 -2
Freddy Sanchez -3 2 -1 -3
Mitch Maier -9 2 4 -3
Hunter Pence 9 -8 -4 -3
Nyjer Morgan -8 2 3 -3
Randy Winn -6 -8 11 -3
Bobby Abreu 14 -8 -9 -3
Brandon Inge -11 0 8 -3
Jerry Hairston -6 8 -5 -3
Felix Pie -5 -5 6 -4
Todd Helton 4 -14 7 -4
Ben Francisco 5 -5 -3 -4
Blake DeWitt -6 2 0 -4
Ian Stewart -5 0 1 -4
Gerald Laird -21 10 7 -4
Mark Reynolds 2 0 -6 -4
Brennan Boesch 1 -8 3 -4
Hideki Matsui 18 -22 - -4
Skip Schumaker -1 2 -5 -4
Daric Barton 3 -14 6 -4
Sean Rodriguez -6 2 -1 -5
Jason Kubel 11 -8 -8 -5
Dioner Navarro -19 10 4 -5
Xavier Nady 3 -14 6 -5
Adam LaRoche 12 -14 -3 -5
Reed Johnson -7 -5 7 -5
Carlos Quentin 12 -8 -10 -5
Juan Rivera 0 -5 -1 -5
Luke Scott 16 -22 - -6
Melvin Mora -3 0 -2 -6
Vladimir Guerrero 16 -22 - -6
Julio Borbon -7 2 0 -6
Edgar Renteria -14 8 0 -6
Jorge Cantu 0 0 -5 -6
Josh Wilson -20 8 6 -6
Alex Gordon -4 -5 3 -6
Fred Lewis -1 -5 0 -6
Jason Varitek -16 10 0 -6
Clint Barmes -16 2 8 -6
Chone Figgins -3 2 -5 -6
Russell Branyan 15 -22 - -7
Kasuo Matsui -11 2 2 -7
Johnny Damon 15 -22 - -7
Andruw Jones -6 -8 7 -7
Mike Lowell -1 -14 8 -7
Gabe Gross -13 -8 14 -8
David Eckstein -10 2 0 -8
Gregor Blanco -8 2 -2 -8
Scott Hairston -1 -5 -2 -8
Bengie Molina -12 10 -6 -8
Aaron Rowand -10 2 0 -8
Aaron Miles -14 2 4 -8
Conor Jackson -4 -5 1 -8
Denard Span 4 2 -14 -8
Carlos Gomez -16 2 6 -8
Carlos Lee 10 -5 -14 -9
Miguel Tejada -2 0 -7 -9
David Ortiz 13 -22 - -9
Carlos Pena 9 -14 -4 -10
Everth Cabrera -10 8 -8 -10
Mike Fontenot -7 2 -5 -10
Nate Schierholtz -9 -8 7 -10
Alcides Escobar -17 8 -1 -10
James Loney 3 -14 1 -10
Jason Kendall -19 10 -1 -10
Austin Kearns -9 -5 4 -10
Travis Hafner 12 -22 - -10
Ryan Theriot -13 2 1 -10
Troy Glaus 4 -14 -1 -10
Chris Getz -14 2 1 -10
Willie Harris -6 -5 0 -11
Cesar Izturis -26 8 7 -11
Orlando Cabrera -11 8 -7 -11
Yuniesky Betancourt -14 8 -5 -11
Jason Michaels -5 -5 -1 -11
Edwin Encarnacion -1 0 -10 -11
Ronny Cedeno -17 8 -3 -12
Gordon Beckham -6 2 -8 -12
Dexter Fowler -7 2 -7 -12
Jack Cust 10 -22 - -12
Geoff Blum -12 8 -8 -12
Adam Lind 10 -22 - -12
Delmon Young 6 -5 -13 -12
Akinori Iwamura -11 2 -3 -13
Garret Anderson -11 -5 3 -13
Alexi Casilla -11 8 -11 -13
Bill Hall -13 -5 5 -13
Jeremy Hermida -10 -5 1 -13
Pedro Feliz -22 0 8 -14
Julio Lugo -13 2 -3 -14
Gaby Sanchez 6 -14 -6 -14
Travis Ishikawa -6 -14 6 -14
Tony Gwynn -12 2 -5 -14
Luis Castillo -8 2 -8 -14
Ryan Church -8 -8 1 -14
Willy Taveras -24 -8 17 -14
Trevor Crowe -13 2 -4 -15
Nick Johnson 7 -22 - -15
Chad Tracy -15 0 0 -15
Brad Hawpe 9 -8 -17 -16
Michael Cuddyer 7 -14 -8 -16
Luis Valbuena -17 2 -1 -16
Bobby Crosby -21 8 -3 -16
Roger Bernadina -9 -8 1 -16
Jeff Francoeur -11 -8 3 -16
Andy LaRoche -19 0 3 -16
Casey Kotchman -9 -14 7 -16
Melky Cabrera -9 -5 -3 -16
Mark Teahen -6 0 -10 -17
Omar Vizquel -19 0 2 -17
Jonny Gomes 4 -5 -16 -17
Garrett Jones 6 -14 -9 -17
Matt LaPorta -6 -14 1 -19
Ryan Garko -3 -14 -4 -21
Wes Helms -18 0 -3 -21
Marcus Thames 1 -22 - -21
Ross Gload -5 -14 -2 -21
Jason Giambi 0 -14 -8 -22
Emilio Bonifacio -20 2 -4 -22
Brendan Harris -16 0 -6 -22
Lastings Milledge -5 -5 -12 -22
Jeff Mathis -30 10 -3 -23
Alex Cora -18 2 -7 -23
Ty Wigginton -2 -14 -9 -25
Brandon Moss -15 -8 -2 -25
Corey Patterson -16 -5 -4 -25
Chris Davis -7 -14 -5 -26
Jose Guillen -4 -22 - -26
Hank Blalock -5 -22 - -27
Gary Matthews -14 2 -16 -28
Willy Aybar -7 -22 - -29
Mike Jacobs -7 -14 -9 -30
Ken Griffey -9 -22 - -31
Garrett Atkins -15 -14 -3 -32
Mark Kotsay -11 -22 - -33

Gross Wins Above Average - Active Leaders

2010-10-13T10:12:00.000-07:00

As a companion to my recent Wins Above Average posts, I'm dusting off my old Gross Wins Above Average framework: these are the active leaders (through 2010) in WAA, with negative seasons zeroed out. Historically, the borderline for Hall of Fame worthiness seems to be around 30 wins.

Alex Rodriguez 71.6
Manny Ramirez 63.9
Albert Pujols 59.5
Ken Griffey 55.3
Chipper Jones 53.2
Derek Jeter 44.9
Jim Thome 44.8
Vladimir Guerrero 41.9
Jim Edmonds 37.1
Jason Giambi 34.5
Roy Halladay 33.2
Ivan Rodriguez 31.2
Lance Berkman 29.9
Todd Helton 29.0
Johan Santana 29.0
Mariano Rivera 28.7
Jorge Posada 28.6
Miguel Cabrera 28.5
Scott Rolen 27.3
Bobby Abreu 26.7
Tim Hudson 25.8
Carlos Beltran 25.7
David Ortiz 25.0
Roy Oswalt 24.9
Hanley Ramirez 22.8
Joe Mauer 22.8
Magglio Ordonez 22.8
Carlos Zambrano 22.0
David Wright 21.8
Ichiro Suzuki 21.7
Miguel Tejada 21.7
Chase Utley 21.5
Andy Pettitte 21.2
Billy Wagner 20.3
Matt Holliday 20.1
CC Sabathia 20.1

Wins Above Average leaders, 2010

2010-10-05T12:26:00.000-07:00

   AL - 2010 NL - 2010

1. Cabrera (DET) 6.7 1. Votto (CIN) 6.2
2. Hamilton (TEX) 6.6 2. Pujols (STL) 6.1
3. Hernandez (SEA) 5.0 3. Holliday (STL) 4.7
4. Longoria (TBR) 4.5 4. Halladay (PHI) 4.6
5. Beltre (BOS) 4.3 5. Wainwright (STL) 4.3
6. Bautista (TOR) 4.2 6. Jimenez (COL) 4.0
7. Konerko (CHW) 4.1 7. Gonzalez (COL) 3.9
8. Buchholz (BOS) 3.9 8. Werth (PHI) 3.8
   Morneau (MIN) 3.9 Johnson (FLA) 3.8
10. Cano (NYY) 3.8 10. Johnson (ARI) 3.7
   Mauer (MIN) 3.8

The Jerky

2010-10-01T09:47:00.001-07:00

“I love jerky,” the boy said, as he crammed another slab into his mouth.

“Jesus Christ, will you shut up?!” Walter screamed, clutching the steering wheel even tighter. Walter planned to murder the boy at the end of their trip. It had been fifty-three days since he had murdered anybody, and he was beginning to feel the lack like a fist closing around his heart.

“Jerky is good,” the boy said, by way of response. “It’s brown.”

The boy was about seventeen and very fat. Walter did not know his name. He had asked him this and other friendly questions to put the boy at ease when Walter had picked him up outside a gas station in Mountain City nearly four hours earlier, but the boy had talked of nothing but jerky. As the boy never made eye contact with him, Walter was not sure if the boy actually intended his opinions on jerky to be for Walter’s consumption, or if he just wanted to put them out into the world. After a while Walter stopped asking questions and sped up the car. His only concern now was to get to the clearing and get this over with. He desperately wished the car had a radio.

The boy had been eating jerky nonstop throughout the entire trip. Every time Walter decided that he couldn’t possibly have any more, he would somehow produce another chunk from somewhere on his person. Part of Walter had begun to believe that he was excreting it.

“Jerky,” the boy continued. “Jerky jerky jerky jerky.”

He was taking the boy to the same place he had taken the thirty-one before him. It was a small clearing in the woods some fifty miles farther down the road. No one in the world knew about it besides Walter. You could see nothing but trees in whatever direction you looked, and on clear nights he could watch the north star rise over the pines. He had no idea if it was really the north star or not. But it pleased him to imagine that it was.

“Jerky is made from meats,” the boy explained. “Meats give their lives to be jerky.”

Hitchhikers, as a rule, tend to be strange and unpleasant people. The exceptions were those whose car had broken down on the highway, who were usually friendlier, and smelled far better. Walter much preferred to pick these up for this reason. But even in the worst there was always something recognizably human. Walter had never encountered anything like this before.

“There are many kinds of jerky,” the boy said. “The best is all of them.”

Walter pulled over onto the shoulder and massaged his temples. There was a hot red spot of pain above his right eye. Just fifty more miles, he told himself. Just fifty more miles.

“I love jerky,” the boy said.

“The hell with it,” Walter said, and lunged across the seat. The boy evinced only mild surprise as Walter’s thumbs dug into the thick flesh above his trachea. When it was over, the boy slumped forward and jerky poured out of wherever he had been hiding it onto the floor and seat. The piece he had in his mouth remained stuck to Walter’s shirt when he pulled away.

Walter pulled the car back onto the highway. As soon as he did, he felt his chest tighten again. It had never started again this quickly. Usually it took weeks, at least. But this one had been singularly unsatisfying. It had been the only one that hadn’t happened in the clearing, on his terms. He needed to find someone else, quickly. But that was impossible as long as he had the boy’s corpse in his passenger seat. Maybe he would feel better after he got the body to the clearing and did what he needed to. Maybe he could still salvage something.

It would be better for him to get the boy out of sight somehow. He might even be able to pick someone else up. But the car was a two-seat hatchback, and there was no place anywhere he could move him. He knew that the car was completely unsuited to someone with his particular needs, but he could afford nothing else, and he had been unable to find a job that would allow him the necessary time off for his excursions. The irony was not lost on him.

Maybe he should apply for that trucking job again. He had applied for one three years earlier, but when he had come in for an interview they had made him answer pages and pages of questions that seemed to have nothing to do with trucking. The woman at the desk had smiled and said that they would call him, but no one ever had. He knew that it was a test, and he had failed somehow. But that had been years ago. Maybe there was another company that would not need to test him first.

Ahead of him he saw a woman standing on the side of the highway, next to a car with its hood open.

It had been seventeen months and eight days since he had brought a woman to the clearing. The overwhelming majority of hitchhikers were men. The woman was not pretty, exactly—her face was long and horsy—but she had dark red hair and was tall and fit. The last woman he had picked up had been fat and loathsome, with limp whitish hair that blended into her scalp.

She would have been perfect. If he had just left the boy at the gas station this afternoon, the woman would be in his car right now heading to the clearing with him and everything would be fine.

“This is all your fault,” he told the corpse. “You did this to me.”

Walter was already half a mile past the woman. He could feel his throat beginning to close up. There had to be something he could do. Maybe he could dump the boy somewhere by the side of the highway and then turn back around and pick her up. But there was nothing but bare dirt by the side of the highway and nowhere he could hide the corpse, and he knew that by the time he turned back the woman would probably already be gone. What few female hitchhikers there were never had to wait long.

He pounded his fist into the dashboard. And again, with mounting fury. The glove compartment popped open, spilling pencils and loose change onto the boy’s gut.

He had to know. At the least he had to get another look. He spun the car into a U-turn and headed back the way he had come.

Walter derived no satisfaction from learning that he was right. A man in a dark blue Lexus had pulled over and was chatting with the woman. He had glossy black hair and wore a suit the same color as the car. (Walter’s own pants fastened with a drawstring.) He was probably going to murder her in a nice hotel in the city on clean sheets, Walter fumed, instead of in the forest on a bed of matted leaves and raccoon poop. He spun the car back around.

He punched the dashboard again, but this failed to make his point emphatically enough. So he began kicking viciously under the dashboard with his boots until he could feel things breaking.

“Fuck!!” he howled. “Goddamn fucking asshole bitch cunt twat!”

Over his screams he could hear a dull squealing coming from somewhere in the car’s workings. This gave way to a loud squealing. Then an intense grinding. Steam started to pour from the dashboard vents. Walter knew nothing about cars. Why would anyone put anything important on the inside of the car where someone could kick it? Who would do that to him? Walter managed to pull the car back onto the shoulder, just as the engine gave one final groan of protest and stopped entirely. They were nine and a half miles from the turnoff to the clearing.

He could not have told how long he sat there before he became aware of headlights slowing behind him. He recognized the car. It belonged to the sheriff’s department.

He never should have brought all of them to the clearing. The thought entered Walter’s mind like a shot. He should have buried them in thirty-one different places, all around the country. Then he could let the locations drip out of him, one by one, over a period of many years. They would have to keep him alive for that. As it was, as soon as they found the clearing, it would be a matter of weeks before they found all of them. They would have no further use for him.

The sheriff’s deputy approached Walter’s car and pointed his flashlight through the open window. He was twenty, at most. “Your car break down?” he asked.

“Yeah,” Walter managed to say.

“That blows,” the deputy said, not unkindly. He moved his flashlight’s beam to the slumped body in the passenger seat. “What is that?” he asked, with a catch in his voice.

Walter continued to stare into the light.

“Is that jerky?” the deputy asked.

Walter opened his mouth but no sound came out.

“I love jerky,” the deputy said.

It took Walter a full half-minute to bring some saliva up to his mouth. “You…” he croaked. “You want some?”

The deputy’s eyes widened. He nodded eagerly.

Walter gingerly picked up a piece from the seat next to him and handed it through the window. The deputy took a bite and closed his eyes in rapturous ecstasy. “So,” he said after a time, continuing to chew contentedly, “you want me to call a tow truck or something?”

“No,” Walter answered weakly. “I already called somebody.”

“Cool,” the deputy said. “You know, it was smart that the two of you stayed in the car. A lot of times people don’t, and they end up getting run over or something. It’s dangerous.”

“Uhnh,” Walter agreed.

“Okay, well…uh…thanks,” said the deputy, tipping the jerky towards Walter. “Have a nice night.” With a final wave, he got back into his car and drove off.

Walter emerged into the clearing on foot five hours later. He was chewing the piece of jerky that had been stuck to his shirt to try to get the taste of vomit out of his mouth. It was fairly linty, but besides that it really wasn’t bad. There was a distinct undertone of flavor that Walter couldn’t place. Was that mesquite? Is that what mesquite tastes like? He wondered if they had found the car and the body by now.

He was glad he had brought them all to the clearing, he decided. They were all here together with him. And he never could have remembered thirty-one separate locations, anyhow.

He cleared a place among the leaves and sat on the cold ground and waited for the north star to rise.

Wins Above Average leaderboards, 1974-2009

2010-09-10T10:30:00.000-07:00

These stats are meant mainly as a complement to Sean Smith's Wins Above Replacement numbers available at Baseball-Reference.com. They include less information than WAR does, but they eliminate some of the features of WAR that have caused the most controversy. The major differences from WAR are as follows:

They are, obviously, calculated from an average baseline rather than replacement level. Both methods have their advantages, but using average avoids the debates over where best to set replacement level, especially when it comes to comparing position players to pitchers.
The offensive numbers are calculated somewhat differently than in WAR. (WAR uses team-specific linear weights, which on occasion can lead to some frankly bizarre conclusions.) One-year park factors are used throughout.
Positional adjustments are based on yearly offensive averages at each position. Compared to WAR's adjustment, this seems to me to be based on stronger empirical data, and to be more sensitive to changes in usage over time. (For instance, the gap between second and third base on the defensive spectrum has narrowed drastically since the 1970s, which is not well reflected by WAR.)
Defense is not included. This is clearly the biggest flaw in these numbers, but as WAR's defensive adjustments are probably its single most controversial feature, these stats can provide a baseline for the reader to add on whatever defensive adjustments he prefers.
Pitching numbers are based on runs saved above the average pitcher, with no defensive adjustments. (The pitching numbers here are very similar to Baseball-Reference's Pitching Wins--major discrepancies can usually be chalked up to different park factors used, or, in the case of NL pitchers, the fact that their hitting is included here.)

The leaderboards go back to 1974, as this is the earliest year for which Baseball-Reference has full positional splits available.

   AL - 1974 NL - 1974

1. Carew (MIN) 6.5 1. Morgan (CIN) 6.5
2. Burroughs (TEX) 5.0 2. Niekro (ATL) 5.1
3. Perry (CLE) 4.8 3. Schmidt (PHI) 4.9
4. Jackson (OAK) 4.5 4. Bench (CIN) 4.7
   Hunter (OAK) 4.5 5. Stargell (PIT) 4.1
6. Grich (BAL) 4.1 6. Matlack (NYM) 3.9
7. Allen (CHW) 3.9 7. Capra (ATL) 3.8
8. Blyleven (MIN) 3.5 Barr (SFG) 3.8
9. Tiant (BOS) 3.4 9. Messersmith (LAD) 3.5
10. Orta (CHW) 3.2 Rooker (PIT) 3.5

   AL - 1975 NL - 1975

1. Palmer (BAL) 5.7 1. Morgan (CIN) 7.3
2. Carew (MIN) 5.5 2. Jones (SDP) 5.0
3. Lynn (BOS) 5.1 Simmons (STL) 5.0
4. Harrah (TEX) 5.0 4. Messersmith (LAD) 4.8
5. Mayberry (KCR) 4.9 5. Luzinski (PHI) 4.4
6. Hunter (NYY) 4.8 6. Seaver (NYM) 4.1
7. Singleton (BAL) 4.7 7. Madlock (CHC) 3.8
8. Tenace (OAK) 3.7 8. Bench (CIN) 3.7
9. Gossage (CHW) 3.4 9. Sanguillen (PIT) 3.6
10. Bonds (NYY) 3.2 10. Forsch (STL) 3.5
   Tanana (CAL) 3.2 Schmidt (PHI) 3.5
   Blyleven (MIN) 3.2 Cey (LAD) 3.5

   AL - 1976 NL - 1976

1. Brett (KCR) 4.6 1. Morgan (CIN) 8.4
2. Carew (MIN) 4.5 2. Cedeno (HOU) 4.6
3. Blue (OAK) 4.4 3. Rose (CIN) 4.4
4. McRae (KCR) 4.3 4. Watson (HOU) 4.1
5. Fidrych (DET) 4.2 Madlock (CHC) 4.1
6. Jackson (BAL) 3.6 6. Foster (CIN) 3.5
7. Grich (BAL) 3.5 7. Schmidt (PHI) 3.3
8. Carty (CLE) 3.4 Griffey (CIN) 3.3
   Palmer (BAL) 3.4 9. Denny (STL) 3.2
10. Torrez (OAK) 3.3 10. Cey (LAD) 2.8
   Tanana (CAL) 3.3 Oliver (PIT) 2.8

   AL - 1977 NL - 1977

1. Carew (MIN) 7.3 1. Foster (CIN) 6.0
2. Page (OAK) 4.9 2. Carlton (PHI) 4.9
3. Singleton (BAL) 4.8 Morgan (CIN) 4.9
4. Ryan (CAL) 3.9 4. Candelaria (PIT) 4.7
   Blyleven (TEX) 3.9 Luzinski (PHI) 4.7
   Tanana (CAL) 3.9 6. Reuschel (CHC) 4.6
7. Bostock (MIN) 3.8 7. Schmidt (PHI) 4.4
8. Rice (BOS) 3.6 8. Seaver (TOT) 4.3
   Brett (KCR) 3.6 9. Smith (LAD) 4.2
10. Gamble (CHW) 3.5 Hendrick (SDP) 4.2

   AL - 1978 NL - 1978

1. Guidry (NYY) 6.7 1. Niekro (ATL) 5.1
2. Caldwell (MIL) 5.6 2. Madlock (SFG) 4.9
3. Rice (BOS) 5.5 Parker (PIT) 4.9
4. Matlack (TEX) 4.7 4. Simmons (STL) 4.8
5. DeCinces (BAL) 4.1 5. Winfield (SDP) 4.2
6. Singleton (BAL) 4.0 6. Lopes (LAD) 4.0
   Carew (MIN) 4.0 7. Clark (SFG) 3.6
8. Palmer (BAL) 3.9 Burroughs (ATL) 3.6
9. Otis (KCR) 3.8 9. Garvey (LAD) 3.5
10. Smalley (MIN) 3.7 10. Carlton (PHI) 3.4
   Foster (CIN) 3.4

   AL - 1979 NL - 1979

1. Lynn (BOS) 5.7 1. Winfield (SDP) 4.6
2. Brett (KCR) 5.1 Lopes (LAD) 4.6
3. Grich (CAL) 4.7 3. Hernandez (STL) 4.2
4. Downing (CAL) 4.6 4. Schmidt (PHI) 4.0
5. Rice (BOS) 4.3 5. Mazzilli (NYM) 3.9
   Lezcano (MIL) 4.3 6. Foster (CIN) 3.7
7. Kern (TEX) 4.2 7. Templeton (STL) 3.3
8. Baylor (CAL) 4.1 8. Rose (PHI) 3.2
   Gamble (TOT) 4.1 9. Parrish (MON) 3.1
   Singleton (BAL) 4.1 10. Ivie (SFG) 2.9

   AL - 1980 NL - 1980

1. Brett (KCR) 8.4 1. Schmidt (PHI) 5.6
2. Jackson (NYY) 5.3 2. Carlton (PHI) 5.5
3. Cooper (MIL) 5.1 3. Simmons (STL) 3.8
4. Norris (OAK) 4.5 Hernandez (STL) 3.8
5. Yount (MIL) 4.4 Cedeno (HOU) 3.8
6. Oglivie (MIL) 3.8 6. Dawson (MON) 3.6
7. Randolph (NYY) 3.6 7. Easler (PIT) 3.4
8. Corbett (MIN) 3.5 Sutton (LAD) 3.4
   Bell (TEX) 3.5 9. Reuss (LAD) 2.9
   Bumbry (BAL) 3.5 10. Templeton (STL) 2.7
   Murphy (ATL) 2.7
   McGraw (PHI) 2.7

   AL - 1981 NL - 1981

1. Grich (CAL) 3.5 1. Schmidt (PHI) 4.7
2. Henderson (OAK) 3.3 2. Dawson (MON) 4.0
   Evans (BOS) 3.3 3. Carlton (PHI) 3.4
4. Paciorek (SEA) 3.0 4. Ryan (HOU) 3.3
   Cooper (MIL) 3.0 5. Foster (CIN) 2.9
6. Murray (BAL) 2.8 6. Valenzuela (LAD) 2.7
7. McCatty (OAK) 2.7 Concepcion (CIN) 2.7
8. Brett (KCR) 2.6 8. Raines (MON) 2.6
   Fingers (MIL) 2.6 Madlock (PIT) 2.6
10. Lemon (CHW) 2.5 10. Seaver (CIN) 2.4
   Zisk (SEA) 2.5

   AL - 1982 NL - 1982

1. Yount (MIL) 8.2 1. Schmidt (PHI) 5.6
2. Murray (BAL) 4.4 2. Guerrero (LAD) 5.5
3. Harrah (CLE) 4.1 3. Rogers (MON) 4.5
4. DeCinces (CAL) 3.9 4. Durham (CHC) 4.3
   McRae (KCR) 3.9 5. Morgan (SFG) 4.2
6. Evans (BOS) 3.8 6. Andujar (STL) 4.0
7. Cooper (MIL) 3.6 7. Oliver (MON) 3.9
   Stieb (TOR) 3.6 8. Carter (MON) 3.8
9. Molitor (MIL) 3.4 9. Niekro (HOU) 3.5
10. Parrish (DET) 3.3 10. Murphy (ATL) 3.3
   Brett (KCR) 3.3
   Jackson (CAL) 3.3

   AL - 1983 NL - 1983

1. Yount (MIL) 5.6 1. Murphy (ATL) 5.0
   Boggs (BOS) 5.6 2. Thon (HOU) 4.8
3. Ripken (BAL) 5.3 3. Cruz (HOU) 4.3
4. Trammell (DET) 4.4 4. Guerrero (LAD) 4.0
   Whitaker (DET) 4.4 5. Denny (PHI) 3.9
6. Murray (BAL) 4.2 6. Raines (MON) 3.6
7. Brett (KCR) 4.1 7. Soto (CIN) 3.5
8. Stieb (TOR) 4.0 8. Schmidt (PHI) 3.4
9. Quisenberry (KCR) 3.5 9. Orosco (NYM) 3.1
10. Henderson (OAK) 3.4 Dawson (MON) 3.1
   Cooper (MIL) 3.4
   Honeycutt (TEX) 3.4

   AL - 1984 NL - 1984

1. Ripken (BAL) 6.7 1. Carter (MON) 5.3
2. Mattingly (NYY) 4.8 2. Raines (MON) 5.2
3. Murray (BAL) 4.6 3. Sandberg (CHC) 4.9
4. Trammell (DET) 4.5 4. Cruz (HOU) 4.2
5. Winfield (NYY) 4.5 5. Schmidt (PHI) 4.1
6. Yount (MIL) 4.3 6. Murphy (ATL) 3.4
7. Stieb (TOR) 3.8 7. Gwynn (SDP) 3.3
   Henderson (OAK) 3.8 8. Rhoden (PIT) 3.2
   Blyleven (CLE) 3.8 Sutter (STL) 3.2
10. Bell (TEX) 3.4 Ray (PIT) 3.2

   AL - 1985 NL - 1985

1. Brett (KCR) 6.4 1. Gooden (NYM) 7.8
2. Henderson (NYY) 6.1 2. Guerrero (LAD) 7.3
3. Boggs (BOS) 5.2 3. McGee (STL) 6.2
4. Stieb (TOR) 5.1 4. Raines (MON) 5.6
5. Mattingly (NYY) 4.1 5. Tudor (STL) 5.5
6. Leibrandt (KCR) 4.0 6. Murphy (ATL) 5.4
7. Bradley (SEA) 3.9 7. Hershiser (LAD) 4.4
8. Ripken (BAL) 3.6 8. Carter (NYM) 4.2
9. Saberhagen (KCR) 3.5 9. Reuschel (PIT) 3.8
10. Hough (TEX) 3.3 10. Schmidt (PHI) 3.5
   Scioscia (LAD) 3.5

   AL - 1986 NL - 1986

1. Mattingly (NYY) 5.6 1. Raines (MON) 5.4
2. Boggs (BOS) 5.4 2. Scott (HOU) 5.2
3. Clemens (BOS) 4.8 3. Gwynn (SDP) 4.6
4. Eichhorn (TOR) 4.6 Sax (LAD) 4.6
5. Higuera (MIL) 4.1 5. Brooks (MON) 4.3
6. Puckett (MIN) 3.9 6. Schmidt (PHI) 3.8
7. Witt (CAL) 3.8 7. Rhoden (PIT) 3.7
8. Rice (BOS) 3.4 8. Davis (CIN) 3.6
9. Ripken (BAL) 3.2 9. McReynolds (SDP) 3.2
   Bernazard (CLE) 3.2 10. Hernandez (NYM) 2.9
   Trammell (DET) 3.2

   AL - 1987 NL - 1987

1. Boggs (BOS) 7.0 1. Gwynn (SDP) 5.9
2. Trammell (DET) 6.4 2. Guerrero (LAD) 4.9
3. Molitor (MIL) 5.2 3. Davis (CIN) 4.4
4. Key (TOR) 4.7 Clark (STL) 4.4
5. Clemens (BOS) 4.4 5. Raines (MON) 4.3
6. Puckett (MIN) 4.1 6. Daniels (CIN) 4.2
7. Bell (TOR) 3.9 7. Strawberry (NYM) 4.0
   Evans (BOS) 3.9 8. Murphy (ATL) 3.6
9. McGwire (OAK) 3.8 Smith (STL) 3.5
   Viola (MIN) 3.8 10. Ready (SDP) 3.1
   Schmidt (PHI) 3.1

   AL - 1988 NL - 1988

1. Boggs (BOS) 6.2 1. Strawberry (NYM) 5.0
2. Canseco (OAK) 5.8 2. Clark (SFG) 4.9
3. Puckett (MIN) 5.2 3. Hershiser (LAD) 4.7
4. Winfield (NYY) 4.8 4. Van Slyke (PIT) 4.0
   Greenwell (BOS) 4.8 5. Galarraga (MON) 3.8
6. Viola (MIN) 4.5 6. Larkin (CIN) 3.7
7. Gubicza (KCR) 4.4 7. McReynolds (NYM) 3.6
8. Higuera (MIL) 4.3 8. Bonilla (PIT) 3.5
9. Anderson (MIN) 4.0 9. Davis (CIN) 3.2
   Clemens (BOS) 4.0 10. Tudor (TOT) 3.1
   Magrane (STL) 3.1

   AL - 1989 NL - 1989

1. Yount (MIL) 5.8 1. Johnson (NYM) 6.8
2. Saberhagen (KCR) 5.2 2. Mitchell (SFG) 6.5
3. Boggs (BOS) 4.2 3. Clark (SFG) 5.9
4. McGriff (TOR) 4.1 4. Bonilla (PIT) 4.5
5. Moore (OAK) 3.9 Smith (ATL) 4.5
6. Franco (TEX) 3.8 6. Davis (CIN) 4.4
   Sierra (TEX) 3.8 7. Gwynn (SDP) 3.8
8. Molitor (MIL) 3.6 8. Hershiser (LAD) 3.7
   Baines (TOT) 3.6 9. Sandberg (CHC) 3.4
   Puckett (MIN) 3.6 10. Garrelts (SFG) 2.8

   AL - 1990 NL - 1990

1. Henderson (OAK) 8.6 1. Bonds (PIT) 5.2
2. Clemens (BOS) 5.8 2. Murray (LAD) 4.8
3. Canseco (OAK) 4.5 3. Dykstra (PHI) 4.1
   Finley (CAL) 4.5 4. Sandberg (CHC) 3.7
5. Fielder (DET) 3.9 5. Whitson (SDP) 3.6
6. Brett (KCR) 3.7 6. Gant (ATL) 3.2
7. McGriff (TOR) 3.6 Smith (TOT) 3.2
8. Trammell (DET) 3.5 Viola (NYM) 3.2
9. Stewart (OAK) 3.3 Daniels (LAD) 3.2
10. Franco (TEX) 3.2 10. Drabek (PIT) 3.1

   AL - 1991 NL - 1991

1. Ripken (BAL) 7.7 1. Bonds (PIT) 4.9
2. Thomas (CHW) 6.3 2. Glavine (ATL) 4.8
3. Franco (TEX) 5.3 3. Clark (SFG) 4.6
4. Tartabull (KCR) 5.2 4. Bonilla (PIT) 3.8
5. Clemens (BOS) 4.9 Larkin (CIN) 3.8
6. Palmeiro (TEX) 4.7 6. Sandberg (CHC) 3.7
   Griffey (SEA) 4.7 Rijo (CIN) 3.7
8. Canseco (OAK) 4.6 8. McGriff (SDP) 3.4
9. Candiotti (TOT) 4.3 9. Calderon (MON) 3.3
10. Boggs (BOS) 4.0 10. Martinez (MON) 2.9

   AL - 1992 NL - 1992

1. Thomas (CHW) 6.6 1. Bonds (PIT) 9.0
2. Martinez (SEA) 5.8 2. Sandberg (CHC) 5.7
3. Clemens (BOS) 5.1 3. Daulton (PHI) 5.6
4. Molitor (MIL) 4.4 4. Sheffield (SDP) 5.4
5. Griffey (SEA) 4.3 5. Maddux (CHC) 5.0
   Puckett (MIN) 4.3 6. Van Slyke (PIT) 4.6
7. Alomar (TOR) 4.2 7. Larkin (CIN) 4.3
8. McGwire (OAK) 4.1 8. Tewksbury (STL) 4.1
9. Appier (KCR) 4.0 9. Martinez (MON) 3.9
10. Mussina (BAL) 3.9 10. McGriff (SDP) 3.7

   AL - 1993 NL - 1993

1. Griffey (SEA) 6.6 1. Bonds (SFG) 9.6
2. Olerud (TOR) 6.3 2. Rijo (CIN) 5.3
3. Gonzalez (TEX) 5.3 3. Maddux (ATL) 5.2
4. Appier (KCR) 5.1 4. Piazza (LAD) 4.9
5. Alomar (TOR) 4.8 5. Dykstra (PHI) 4.5
6. Thomas (CHW) 4.6 6. Jefferies (STL) 3.9
7. Hoiles (BAL) 4.5 Wilkins (CHC) 3.9
8. Molitor (TOR) 4.1 Thompson (SFG) 3.9
9. Fryman (DET) 4.0 9. Gwynn (SDP) 3.7
   Stanley (NYY) 4.0 10. Bell (PIT) 3.4
   Baerga (CLE) 4.0

   AL - 1994 NL - 1994

1. Thomas (CHW) 6.3 1. Bagwell (HOU) 7.0
2. Belle (CLE) 5.8 2. Maddux (ATL) 6.3
3. Griffey (SEA) 4.7 3. Bonds (SFG) 5.0
4. O'Neill (NYY) 4.4 4. Gwynn (SDP) 4.8
5. Lofton (CLE) 3.9 5. Mitchell (CIN) 4.3
6. Cone (KCR) 3.6 6. Piazza (LAD) 3.9
7. Clemens (BOS) 3.5 7. Biggio (HOU) 3.6
8. Mussina (BAL) 3.4 8. Saberhagen (NYM) 3.3
9. Johnson (SEA) 3.0 McGriff (ATL) 3.3
10. Boggs (NYY) 2.9 10. Alou (MON) 2.9

   AL - 1995 NL - 1995

1. Belle (CLE) 6.9 1. Maddux (ATL) 6.3
2. Martinez (SEA) 6.4 2. Piazza (LAD) 5.9
3. Johnson (SEA) 5.1 3. Bonds (SFG) 5.5
4. Salmon (CAL) 5.0 4. Biggio (HOU) 5.0
5. Valentin (BOS) 4.7 5. Larkin (CIN) 4.8
6. Thomas (CHW) 4.5 6. Williams (SFG) 4.0
7. Thome (CLE) 4.4 7. Sanders (CIN) 3.6
8. Knoblauch (MIN) 4.2 8. Caminiti (SDP) 3.4
9. McGwire (OAK) 3.7 9. Gwynn (SDP) 3.3
10. Wakefield (BOS) 3.5 10. Karros (LAD) 3.0

   AL - 1996 NL - 1996

1. Rodriguez (SEA) 7.4 1. Sheffield (FLA) 7.2
2. Thomas (CHW) 5.7 2. Bonds (SFG) 6.6
3. Anderson (BAL) 5.6 3. Piazza (LAD) 6.5
4. McGwire (OAK) 5.5 Bagwell (HOU) 6.5
5. Griffey (SEA) 5.0 5. Caminiti (SDP) 6.2
   Martinez (SEA) 5.0 6. Brown (FLA) 5.8
7. Knoblauch (MIN) 4.7 7. Larkin (CIN) 5.6
   Thome (CLE) 4.7 8. Gilkey (NYM) 4.4
   Hentgen (TOR) 4.7 9. Maddux (ATL) 4.3
10. Alomar (BAL) 4.6 10. Smoltz (ATL) 4.2

   AL - 1997 NL - 1997

1. Clemens (TOR) 7.2 1. Piazza (LAD) 8.6
2. Thomas (CHW) 6.2 2. Walker (COL) 8.1
3. Griffey (SEA) 6.0 3. Bonds (SFG) 6.6
4. Johnson (SEA) 5.1 4. Martinez (MON) 6.5
   Martinez (SEA) 5.1 5. Biggio (HOU) 5.7
6. Justice (CLE) 4.8 6. Gwynn (SDP) 5.6
7. Garciaparra (BOS) 4.6 7. Maddux (ATL) 5.2
8. Greer (TEX) 4.2 8. Bagwell (HOU) 5.0
9. Williams (NYY) 4.1 9. Lankford (STL) 4.5
10. Pettitte (NYY) 4.0 10. Kile (HOU) 4.2

   AL - 1998 NL - 1998

1. Belle (CHW) 6.1 1. McGwire (STL) 8.7
2. Rodriguez (SEA) 5.2 2. Bonds (SFG) 6.6
3. Griffey (SEA) 4.8 3. Maddux (ATL) 6.1
   Clemens (TOR) 4.8 4. Piazza (TOT) 5.9
5. Williams (NYY) 4.7 5. Biggio (HOU) 5.5
6. Martinez (BOS) 4.4 6. Sosa (CHC) 5.1
   Garciaparra (BOS) 4.4 7. Vaughn (SDP) 5.0
8. Martinez (SEA) 4.2 Alou (HOU) 5.0
9. Jeter (NYY) 3.8 9. Guerrero (MON) 4.9
   Vaughn (BOS) 3.8 Larkin (CIN) 4.9

   AL - 1999 NL - 1999

1. Jeter (NYY) 7.0 1. Jones (ATL) 7.0
2. Martinez (BOS) 6.2 2. Johnson (ARI) 5.7
3. Williams (NYY) 5.5 3. McGwire (STL) 5.0
4. Garciaparra (BOS) 5.3 4. Hampton (HOU) 4.8
   Ramirez (CLE) 5.3 5. Bagwell (HOU) 4.7
6. Palmeiro (TEX) 4.4 6. Giles (PIT) 4.6
7. Alomar (CLE) 4.3 7. Walker (COL) 4.4
8. Griffey (SEA) 3.9 8. Millwood (ATL) 4.3
9. Martinez (SEA) 3.7 9. Abreu (PHI) 4.1
   Rodriguez (TEX) 3.7 10. Brown (LAD) 3.8
   Giambi (OAK) 3.7

   AL - 2000 NL - 2000

1. Martinez (BOS) 7.0 1. Sosa (CHC) 6.2
2. Rodriguez (SEA) 6.3 2. Kent (SFG) 6.1
3. Ramirez (CLE) 6.1 Bonds (SFG) 6.1
4. Delgado (TOR) 6.0 4. Guerrero (MON) 5.4
   Giambi (OAK) 6.0 Sheffield (LAD) 5.4
6. Garciaparra (BOS) 5.4 Johnson (ARI) 5.4
7. Martinez (SEA) 5.1 7. Piazza (NYM) 5.2
8. Glaus (ANA) 4.7 8. Giles (PIT) 5.1
9. Thomas (CHW) 4.6 9. Alfonzo (NYM) 4.6
10. Erstad (ANA) 4.5 10. Helton (COL) 4.4

   AL - 2001 NL - 2001

1. Giambi (OAK) 7.4 1. Bonds (SFG) 13.2
2. Rodriguez (TEX) 7.3 2. Sosa (CHC) 7.9
3. Alomar (CLE) 5.6 3. Aurilia (SFG) 6.8
4. Boone (SEA) 5.2 4. Johnson (ARI) 5.7
5. Ramirez (BOS) 4.9 5. Helton (COL) 5.5
6. Martinez (SEA) 3.9 6. Gonzalez (ARI) 5.4
7. Gonzalez (CLE) 3.7 7. Jones (ATL) 5.3
   Thome (CLE) 3.7 Nevin (SDP) 5.3
9. Mays (MIN) 3.4 Piazza (NYM) 5.4
   Suzuki (SEA) 3.4 10. Pujols (STL) 4.7
   Rodriguez (TEX) 3.4
   Ordonez (CHW) 3.4

   AL - 2002 NL - 2002

1. Ramirez (BOS) 6.4 1. Bonds (SFG) 12.9
2. Thome (CLE) 5.9 2. Kent (SFG) 6.1
3. Giambi (NYY) 5.3 3. Johnson (ARI) 6.0
4. Rodriguez (TEX) 5.2 4. Guerrero (MON) 5.3
5. Martinez (BOS) 4.7 5. Edmonds (STL) 5.2
6. Zito (OAK) 4.5 6. Giles (PIT) 4.6
   Williams (NYY) 4.5 7. Pujols (STL) 4.3
8. Lowe (BOS) 4.4 8. Berkman (HOU) 4.2
   Soriano (NYY) 4.4 Sosa (CHC) 4.2
10. Ordonez (CHW) 4.2 10. Vidro (MON) 3.9
   Hudson (OAK) 4.2 Abreu (PHI) 3.9

   AL - 2003 NL - 2003

1. Rodriguez (TEX) 5.0 1. Bonds (SFG) 8.8
2. Martinez (BOS) 4.8 2. Pujols (STL) 8.3
3. Ramirez (BOS) 4.6 3. Lopez (ATL) 6.4
4. Boone (SEA) 4.3 4. Helton (COL) 5.9
   Delgado (TOR) 4.3 Sheffield (ATL) 5.9
6. Hudson (OAK) 4.2 6. Renteria (STL) 5.1
7. Halladay (TOR) 4.1 7. Prior (CHC) 4.8
8. Posada (NYY) 4.0 8. Schmidt (SFG) 4.4
   Soriano (NYY) 4.0 9. Giles (ATL) 4.3
10. Loaiza (CHW) 3.9 Rolen (STL) 4.3

   AL - 2004 NL - 2004

1. Guerrero (ANA) 5.3 1. Bonds (SFG) 11.2
2. Santana (MIN) 5.2 2. Beltre (LAD) 6.3
3. Suzuki (SEA) 4.7 3. Edmonds (STL) 6.2
4. Hafner (CLE) 4.2 4. Pujols (STL) 6.0
5. Mora (BAL) 4.1 5. Johnson (ARI) 4.9
6. Guillen (DET) 3.9 Berkman (HOU) 4.9
7. Schilling (BOS) 3.7 7. Drew (ATL) 4.7
   Rodriguez (DET) 3.7 8. Rolen (STL) 4.6
9. Ramirez (BOS) 3.5 9. Helton (COL) 4.5
10. Sheffield (NYY) 3.3 10. Zambrano (CHC) 4.4
   Sheets (MIL) 4.4

   AL - 2005 NL - 2005

1. Rodriguez (NYY) 7.0 1. Lee (CHC) 6.9
2. Hafner (CLE) 5.2 2. Clemens (HOU) 6.0
3. Ortiz (BOS) 5.0 3. Pujols (STL) 5.6
4. Roberts (BAL) 4.5 4. Cabrera (FLA) 5.3
5. Guerrero (LAA) 4.3 5. Bay (PIT) 4.9
6. Ramirez (BOS) 4.1 6. Pettitte (HOU) 4.5
7. Young (TEX) 4.1 7. Willis (FLA) 4.4
8. Santana (MIN) 4.0 8. Delgado (FLA) 4.3
9. Teixeira (TEX) 3.8 9. Giles (SDP) 4.1
10. Martinez (CLE) 3.7 10. Carpenter (STL) 3.8
   Tejada (BAL) 3.7

   AL - 2006 NL - 2006

1. Hafner (CLE) 5.5 1. Pujols (STL) 5.8
2. Jeter (NYY) 4.9 2. Cabrera (FLA) 5.5
3. Ortiz (BOS) 4.8 3. Beltran (NYM) 5.0
4. Ramirez (BOS) 4.7 4. Howard (PHI) 4.5
5. Santana (MIN) 4.4 5. McCann (ATL) 4.4
6. Mauer (MIN) 4.3 6. Berkman (HOU) 4.0
7. Tejada (BAL) 3.7 Webb (ARI) 4.0
   Dye (CHW) 3.7 8. Oswalt (HOU) 3.9
9. Guillen (DET) 3.6 9. Jones (ATL) 3.8
   Thome (CHW) 3.6 10. Reyes (NYM) 3.6
   Sizemore (CLE) 3.6
   Guerrero (LAA) 3.6

   AL - 2007 NL - 2007

1. Rodriguez (NYY) 7.0 1. Jones (ATL) 5.6
2. Ordonez (DET) 5.6 2. Ramirez (FLA) 5.5
3. Pena (TBD) 5.4 3. Wright (NYM) 5.1
4. Ortiz (BOS) 5.2 4. Utley (PHI) 4.7
   Posada (NYY) 5.2 5. Holliday (COL) 4.2
6. Lackey (LAA) 4.0 Peavy (SDP) 4.2
7. Granderson (DET) 3.8 7. Cabrera (FLA) 4.1
   Sabathia (CLE) 3.8 8. Pujols (STL) 4.0
8. Carmona (CLE) 3.6 9. Webb (ARI) 3.9
10. Suzuki (SEA) 3.5 10. Penny (LAD) 3.8

   AL - 2008 NL - 2008

1. Lee (CLE) 4.4 1. Pujols (STL) 7.5
2. Halladay (TOR) 4.1 2. Jones (ATL) 6.0
3. Rodriguez (NYY) 4.0 3. Ramirez (FLA) 5.3
4. Mauer (MIN) 3.9 4. Santana (NYM) 4.6
5. Bradley (TEX) 3.7 Lincecum (SFG) 4.6
6. Sizemore (CLE) 3.6 6. Ramirez (LAD) 4.5
7. Quentin (CHW) 3.4 7. Wright (NYM) 4.2
8. Hamilton (TEX) 3.2 8. Sabathia (MIL) 4.1
   Youkilis (BOS) 3.2 9. Utley (PHI) 4.0
10. Huff (BAL) 3.1    10. Berkman (HOU) 3.9
   Kinsler (TEX) 3.1

   AL - 2009 NL - 2009

1. Mauer (MIN) 6.6 1. Pujols (STL) 7.2
2. Greinke (KCR) 6.0 2. Ramirez (FLA) 5.7
3. Hernandez (SEA) 5.0 3. Braun (MIL) 5.4
4. Jeter (NYY) 4.8 4. Lincecum (SFG) 4.8
5. Halladay (TOR) 4.0 5. Fielder (MIL) 4.7
   Lind (TOR) 4.0 6. Carpenter (STL) 4.4
7. Choo (CLE) 3.7 7. Wainwright (STL) 4.3
8. Zobrist (TBR) 3.6 8. Gonzalez (SDP) 4.2
9. Bartlett (TBR) 3.5 9. Utley (PHI) 4.1
10. Rodriguez (NYY) 3.4 10. Sandoval (SFG) 4.0
   Haren (ARI) 4.0

24 - Season Nine

2010-03-24T00:29:00.000-07:00

A CTU analyst hauls one of his fellow agents in front of the unit’s director.

Analyst: Director Jennings, I just discovered that Susan here is a mole! She’s been helping the terrorists release radioactive chimps in the heart of downtown Chicago.

Director: Well, it seems odd that I didn’t know about this before, seeing how I am also a mole.

Analyst: Well, now that you mention it, I’m a mole too.

CTU Agent #2: So am I.

CTU Agent #3: Me too.

Water Delivery Guy: I just deliver the water, and even I'm a mole.

CTU Agent #4: I wasn’t a mole until this morning, but I thought it would be easier just to go along with the crowd.

Director: Is there anyone here who isn’t a mole?

All the CTU agents look back and forth between each other. Nobody raises their hand.

Director: Huh. Well, I guess there’s no point continuing this charade anymore. This is officially a terrorist organization. Everybody get back to work on making sure those chimps get to where they need to be.

All the agents return to their stations. Susan surreptitiously pulls out a cell phone and makes a call.

Susan: Madame President? I’ve successfully infiltrated the terrorist cell. I’ll be able to disrupt their operation from the inside.

2010 MLB projections

2010-01-19T12:30:00.000-08:00

Here's the 2010 list, in the same format as previous years (methodology described here and here). As always, the numbers are presented in runs above average per 150 games. The only difference from last year is that there are a handful of players who didn't receive CHONE defensive projections at their primary '09 position--for those players, I ran my own projections, based on Baseball-Reference's Total Zone numbers.


name                 rcaa  pos  def  tot 

Albert Pujols          68  -14    8   62
Joe Mauer              40   11    6   57
Hanley Ramirez         42    8   -3   47
Chase Utley            32    2    4   38
Alex Rodriguez         44   -1   -6   37
Chipper Jones          39   -1   -3   35
Carlos Beltran         27    2    6   35
Matt Holliday          38   -5    1   34
Jorge Posada           26   11   -4   33
Mark Teixeira          41  -14    5   32
Yunel Escobar          11    8   12   31
Manny Ramirez          40   -5   -5   30
Ryan Braun             39   -5   -4   30
Jose Reyes             12    8    9   29
Troy Tulowitzki         8    8   13   29
Shin-Soo Choo          34   -8    2   28
Ben Zobrist            22    2    4   28
Evan Longoria          21   -1    7   27
Victor Martinez        17   11   -1   27
Adrian Gonzalez        38  -14    3   27
David Wright           32   -1   -6   25
Prince Fielder         41  -14   -3   24
Brian McCann           16   11   -3   24
Grady Sizemore         18    2    4   24
Pablo Sandoval         30   -1   -6   23
Dustin Pedroia         14    2    5   21
Lance Berkman          34  -14    1   21
Ian Kinsler            15    2    4   21
Ichiro Suzuki          23   -8    6   21
Curtis Granderson      14    2    4   20
Joey Votto             33  -14    0   19
Yadier Molina          -1   11    9   19
Miguel Cabrera         34  -14   -1   19
Mike Napoli            13   11   -6   18
Matt Kemp              20    2   -4   18
Brendan Ryan           -5    8   15   18
Kevin Youkilis         27  -14    4   17
Aaron Hill              9    2    6   17
Robinson Cano          11    2    4   17
Denard Span            12    2    3   17
Johnny Damon           15   -5    7   17
Andrew McCutchen       15    2    0   17
Derek Jeter            20    8  -11   17
Marco Scutaro           0    8    8   16
Aramis Ramirez         21   -1   -4   16
Magglio Ordonez        28   -8   -4   16
Torii Hunter           18    2   -4   16
Jason Bartlett          9    8   -2   15
David Ross             -5   11    9   15
Ryan Doumit             8   11   -5   14
Ryan Zimmerman         15   -1    0   14
J.J. Hardy             -2    8    8   14
Carl Crawford          13   -5    6   14
Jimmy Rollins           4    8    2   14
Casey Blake             9   -1    6   14
Ryan Howard            25  -14    3   14
Kelly Shoppach          6   11   -3   14
Jayson Werth           20   -8    2   14
Josh Hamilton          14    2   -3   13
Placido Polanco         4    2    7   13
Martin Prado           14    2   -3   13
Nick Markakis          17   -8    3   12
Jacoby Ellsbury         4    2    6   12
Scott Rolen             6   -1    7   12
Russell Martin          1   11    0   12
Nate McLouth           14    2   -4   12
Brian Roberts          14    2   -4   12
Milton Bradley         21   -8   -2   11
Michael Young          12   -1    0   11
Carlos Lee             24   -5   -8   11
Nyjer Morgan            4   -5   12   11
Geovany Soto            2   11   -2   11
Asdrubal Cabrera        9    8   -6   11
Chris Coghlan          15   -5    0   10
Kurt Suzuki            -4   11    3   10
Raul Ibanez            19   -5   -4   10
Rafael Furcal          -1    8    3   10
J.D. Drew              16   -8    2   10
Howie Kendrick          4    2    4   10
Chone Figgins           4   -1    7   10
Troy Glaus             11   -1   -1    9
Mike Lowell             7   -1    3    9
Kelly Johnson           2    2    5    9
Cristian Guzman         1    8    0    9
Casey McGehee          14   -1   -4    9
Derrek Lee             22  -14    1    9
Carlos Pena            26  -14   -3    9
Andre Ethier           20   -8   -3    9
Josh Willingham        14   -5    0    9
Orlando Hudson          8    2   -1    9
Jason Bay              18   -5   -4    9
Chris Iannetta          0   11   -3    8
Marlon Byrd             9    2   -3    8
Kenji Johjima         -12   11    9    8
Matt Diaz              17   -8   -1    8
Ryan Ludwick           17   -8   -1    8
Mike Cameron            6    2    0    8
Adam Dunn              26  -14   -4    8
Jack Wilson            -9    8    9    8
Maicer Izturis          0    2    5    7
Todd Helton            17  -14    4    7
David DeJesus           4   -5    8    7
Franklin Gutierrez     -1    2    6    7
Justin Morneau         22  -14   -1    7
B.J. Upton              3    2    1    6
Shane Victorino         8    2   -4    6
John Baker              3   11   -8    6
Nelson Cruz             9   -8    5    6
Kendry Morales         19  -14    1    6
Seth Smith             12   -5   -1    6
Justin Upton            9   -8    4    5
Cody Ross               9    2   -6    5
Chris Snyder           -8   11    2    5
Gordon Beckham          3   -1    3    5
Kevin Kouzmanoff        2   -1    3    4
Adrian Beltre           1   -1    4    4
Mark Ellis             -3    2    5    4
Gregg Zaun             -5   11   -2    4
Mark DeRosa             5   -1    0    4
Ryan Raburn             7   -5    2    4
Nolan Reimold          11   -5   -2    4
Carlos Ruiz           -11   11    3    3
David Murphy            3   -5    5    3
Hunter Pence           12   -8   -1    3
Rajai Davis             2    2   -1    3
Ronny Paulino         -10   11    1    2
Carlos Quentin          9   -5   -2    2
Mike Redmond          -12   11    3    2
Dan Uggla               7    2   -7    2
Adam Jones             -1    2    1    2
Bobby Abreu            13   -8   -3    2
Jesus Flores           -5   11   -4    2
Skip Schumaker          6    2   -6    2
Tony Gwynn             -6    2    6    2
Carlos Guillen          7   -5    0    2
Will Venable            7   -8    3    2
Ron Belliard            8    2   -8    2
Xavier Nady            16   -8   -6    2
Miguel Montero         -1   11   -8    2
Alexei Ramirez         -4    8   -2    2
Colby Rasmus           -6    2    6    2
Erick Aybar            -5    8   -2    1
Stephen Drew           -7    8    0    1
Felipe Lopez           -2    2    1    1
Ivan Rodriguez        -13   11    3    1
Jose Lopez             -3    2    2    1
Nick Swisher           10   -8   -1    1
Craig Counsell         -8    2    7    1
Omar Infante           -2    2    0    0
Rod Barajas           -17   11    6    0
Jamey Carroll         -10    2    8    0
Alfonso Soriano         4   -5    1    0
A.J. Pierzynski        -7   11   -4    0
Alberto Callaspo        3    2   -5    0
Ben Francisco           3   -5    2    0
Miguel Tejada           4    8  -12    0
Brandon Phillips        1    2   -3    0
Vladimir Guerrero      22  -22    -    0
Mark Reynolds           6   -1   -5    0
Bengie Molina          -8   11   -3    0
Elvis Andrus           -7    8   -1    0
Brad Hawpe             18   -8  -10    0
Akinori Iwamura         0    2   -2    0
Miguel Olivo           -9   11   -2    0
Luis Valbuena          -5    2    2   -1
Ramon Hernandez       -11   11   -1   -1
Willie Harris          -2    2   -1   -1
Gerald Laird          -20   11    8   -1
Jhonny Peralta         -1   -1    1   -1
Clint Barmes          -11    2    8   -1
Everth Cabrera          1    8  -10   -1
Corey Hart              5   -8    2   -1
Russell Branyan        13  -14    0   -1
Fred Lewis              1   -5    3   -1
Nick Hundley           -6   11   -7   -2
Kazuo Matsui           -6    2    2   -2
Carlos Delgado         12  -14    0   -2
Coco Crisp             -7    2    3   -2
Alex Gordon            -1   -1    0   -2
Rickie Weeks            3    2   -7   -2
Conor Jackson           2   -5    1   -2
Cesar Izturis         -22    8   12   -2
Brian Schneider       -15   11    2   -2
Chase Headley           7   -5   -4   -2
Juan Pierre            -5   -5    7   -3
Rick Ankiel            -2    2   -3   -3
Brad Ausmus           -18   11    4   -3
Lyle Overbay            5  -14    6   -3
Mike Fontenot          -6    2    1   -3
Randy Winn             -1   -8    6   -3
Adam LaRoche           14  -14   -3   -3
Ryan Sweeney           -1   -8    5   -4
Adam Lind              18  -22    -   -4
Brian Giles             8   -8   -4   -4
Michael Cuddyer        10   -8   -6   -4
Aaron Rowand            1    2   -7   -4
Edgar Renteria         -7    8   -5   -4
Garrett Atkins         -6   -1    3   -4
Gary Sheffield          5   -5   -4   -4
Melvin Mora            -3   -1    0   -4
Jason Kubel            18  -22    -   -4
John Buck             -10   11   -5   -4
Alexis Rios             4   -8   -1   -5
Jason Varitek         -16   11    0   -5
Dioner Navarro        -18   11    2   -5
David Ortiz            17  -22    -   -5
Nick Johnson           11  -14   -2   -5
Adam Everett          -25    8   12   -5
Michael Bourn          -6    2   -1   -5
Alfredo Amezaga       -16    2    9   -5
Ryan Church             3   -8    0   -5
Dexter Fowler          -6    2   -1   -5
Ryan Theriot          -11    8   -2   -5
James Loney             9  -14    0   -5
Garret Anderson        -1   -5    1   -5
Jonny Gomes             5   -5   -6   -6
Freddy Sanchez         -4    2   -4   -6
Jim Thome              16  -22    -   -6
Vernon Wells           -2    2   -6   -6
Chris Getz            -10    2    2   -6
Hideki Matsui          16  -22    -   -6
Jarrod Saltalamacchia -14   11   -4   -7
Scott Podsednik        -6   -5    4   -7
Pedro Feliz           -15   -1    9   -7
Omar Vizquel          -27    8   12   -7
Vorvit Torrealba      -16   11   -2   -7
Melky Cabrera          -8    2   -1   -7
Luis Castillo          -2    2   -7   -7
Ian Stewart            -6   -1   -1   -8
Juan Uribe            -10   -1    3   -8
Paul Konerko            6  -14    0   -8
Anderson Hernandez    -11    2    1   -8
Casey Kotchman          0  -14    6   -8
David Eckstein         -7    2   -3   -8
Jermaine Dye            7   -8   -7   -8
Matt Stairs             7   -8   -7   -8
Jorge Cantu             5  -14    1   -8
Juan Rivera             1   -5   -4   -8
Jeremy Hermida          0   -8    0   -8
Ramon Vazquez         -10    8   -7   -9
Mitch Maier           -14    2    3   -9
Eric Byrnes           -10   -5    6   -9
Eric Hinske            -1   -8    0   -9
Elijah Dukes           -1   -8    0   -9
Jack Hannahan         -16   -1    8   -9
Kosuke Fukudome        -5    2   -6   -9
Jack Cust              12  -22    -  -10
Carlos Gomez          -19    2    7  -10
Frank Catalanotto       0   -8   -2  -10
Jose Molina           -27   11    6  -10
Billy Butler           11  -14   -7  -10
Jeff Keppinger         -8   -1   -2  -11
Joe Crede             -15   -1    5  -11
Willy Taveras         -20    2    7  -11
John McDonald         -24    8    5  -11
Jay Bruce              -5   -8    2  -11
Mark Teahen            -3   -1   -7  -11
Josh Bard             -11   11  -11  -11
Mark Loretta          -11   -1    0  -12
Gerardo Parra         -10   -5    3  -12
Brandon Inge          -17   -1    6  -12
Jason Kendall         -21   11   -2  -12
Jose Bautista          -4   -5   -3  -12
Bill Hall             -21   -1   10  -12
Julio Lugo             -9    8  -11  -12
Daniel Murphy           1  -14    1  -12
Luke Scott             10  -22    -  -12
Endy Chavez           -11   -5    4  -12
Adam Kennedy           -7   -1   -4  -12
Jose Guillen            0   -8   -4  -12
Joey Gathright        -13    2   -1  -12
Gregor Blanco         -14    2   -1  -13
Reggie Willits        -14   -5    6  -13
Ryan Garko              3  -14   -2  -13
Andy LaRoche          -14   -1    2  -13
Daric Barton           -2  -14    3  -13
Alex Cora             -15    8   -6  -13
Aaron Miles           -14    2   -1  -13
Khalil Greene         -15    8   -6  -13
Gabe Gross             -9   -8    4  -13
Chris Young           -12    2   -3  -13
Delmon Young           -2   -5   -7  -14
Geoff Blum            -14   -1    1  -14
Emmanuel Burriss      -17    2    1  -14
Aubrey Huff             3  -14   -4  -15
Chris Burke           -20    8   -3  -15
Jeremy Reed           -16   -5    6  -15
Ronny Cedeno          -22    8   -1  -15
Orlando Cabrera        -8    8  -15  -15
Jason Giambi            3  -14   -4  -15
Brendan Harris         -6    8  -18  -16
Edwin Encarnacion      -1   -1  -14  -16
Wladimir Balentien    -16   -5    5  -16
Chris Duncan           -5   -5   -6  -16
Travis Hafner           6  -22    -  -16
Yuniesky Betancourt   -15    8   -9  -16
Hank Blalock            0  -14   -2  -16
Nick Punto            -19    2    1  -16
Ty Wigginton            4  -14   -6  -16
Reed Johnson           -9    2  -10  -17
Travis Ishikawa        -7  -14    4  -17
Jeff Mathis           -28   11    0  -17
Jason Michaels        -12   -5   -1  -18
Jeff Francoeur         -8   -8   -2  -18
Paul Bako             -25   11   -4  -18
Pat Burrell             4  -22    -  -18
Lastings Milledge      -5   -5   -8  -18
Wes Helms             -18   -1    0  -19
Chris Davis            -2  -14   -3  -19
Austin Kearns         -12   -8    0  -20
Gary Matthews         -12    2  -11  -21
Brandon Moss          -13   -8    0  -21
Ken Griffey             0  -22    -  -22
Cliff Floyd             0  -22    -  -22
Emil Brown            -14   -8    0  -22
Darin Erstad          -21   -5    3  -23
Mike Sweeney           -1  -22    -  -23
Corey Patterson       -25    2    0  -23
Ross Gload             -8  -14   -2  -24
Alexi Casilla         -18    2  -10  -26
Kevin Millar           -9  -14   -3  -26
Marcus Thames          -4  -22    -  -26
Rich Aurilia          -15  -14    2  -27
Tony Pena             -34    8   -1  -27
Emilio Bonifacio      -23   -1   -3  -27
Mark Kotsay           -11  -14   -2  -27
Chad Tracy            -12  -14   -2  -28
Mike Jacobs            -6  -22    -  -28
Nomar Garciaparra      -7  -22    -  -29
Bobby Crosby          -19  -14    1  -32
Craig Monroe          -21   -8   -6  -35
David Dellucci        -15  -22    -  -37
Andruw Jones          -17  -22    -  -39

2009 MLB projections

2009-01-19T11:05:00.000-08:00

Here, at last, are my 2009 MLB projections, based, as usual, on (slightly tweaked) Marcel offensive projections and CHONE defensive projections. (The methodology is described here and here.) All numbers are projected runs above average per 150 games. The only notable difference between these and my previous projections (aside from adding in catcher defense this year) is that I'm no longer including a projected playing time adjustment. While adjustments like that do have value (the top of the list may appear overloaded with catchers, but most of the catchers here aren't likely to catch anything like 150 games), playing time is just too much of a crapshoot to project for most players, and doing things this way at least has the effect of filling the middle of the list with truly average players, rather than really good or bad players who aren't expected to play much.


name              rcaa  pos  def  tot

Albert Pujols       66  -13   12   65
Chipper Jones       56   -3    7   60
Joe Mauer           29   11    9   49
Chase Utley         31    3   14   48
Matt Holliday       40   -7    8   41
Alex Rodriguez      45   -3   -2   40
Carlos Beltran      27    2    9   38
David Wright        38   -3    2   37
Grady Sizemore      24    2    9   35
Jorge Posada        26   11   -2   35
Curtis Granderson   18    2   13   33
Hanley Ramirez      36    8  -11   33
Lance Berkman       40  -13    4   31
Brian McCann        21   11   -2   30
Mark Teixeira       35  -13    6   28
Geovany Soto        15   11    1   27
Ryan Braun          31   -7    2   26
Victor Martinez     13   11    2   26
David Ortiz         39  -15    -   24
Jimmy Rollins       12    8    3   23
Miguel Cabrera      37  -13   -1   23
Dustin Pedroia      15    3    4   22
Russell Martin       8   11    3   22
Manny Ramirez       43   -7  -15   21
Josh Hamilton       25    2   -6   21
Magglio Ordonez     32   -8   -4   20
Milton Bradley      35  -15    -   20
Yunel Escobar        6    8    6   20
Ryan Doumit         14   11   -5   20
Placido Polanco      7    3    9   19
Mike Napoli         12   11   -4   19
Ryan Ludwick        26   -8    1   19
Vladimir Guerrero   33   -8   -6   19
Denard Span         14   -8   13   19
Carlos Pena         31  -13    1   19
Jose Reyes          16    8   -5   19
Evan Longoria       14   -3    7   18
Mike Redmond        -2   11    9   18
Ian Kinsler         17    3   -3   17
Ichiro Suzuki       18   -8    7   17
Kelly Shoppach       7   11   -1   17
Torii Hunter        14    2    1   17
Brian Roberts       12    3    2   17
Mark Ellis          -2    3   15   16
Adrian Gonzalez     27  -13    2   16
Adrian Beltre        8   -3   11   16
Brian Giles         16   -8    8   16
Aramis Ramirez      21   -3   -3   15
Carlos Guillen      18   -3    0   15
Scott Rolen          5   -3   13   15
Kurt Suzuki         -3   11    7   15
Ryan Howard         31  -13   -3   15
Rafael Furcal        5    8    2   15
Troy Tulowitzki     -4    8   11   15
Aaron Hill          -1    3   13   15
Carl Crawford       12   -7    9   14
B.J. Upton          12    2    0   14
J.J. Hardy           4    8    1   13
Miguel Tejada        5    8    0   13
Justin Morneau      27  -13   -1   13
Derek Jeter         18    8  -13   13
Alexis Rios         16   -8    5   13
Nick Markakis       20   -8    1   13
Ryan Zimmerman       6   -3   10   13
Jason Bartlett      -5    8    9   12
Shane Victorino      4    2    6   12
Mike Cameron         7    2    3   12
Chris Iannetta       3   11   -2   12
Kenji Johjima       -6   11    7   12
Jim Thome           26  -15    -   11
Alfonso Soriano     20   -7   -2   11
Orlando Hudson       5    3    3   11
Johnny Damon        12   -7    6   11
Ivan Rodriguez      -6   11    5   10
Mike Lowell          8   -3    5   10
Marlon Byrd          9    2   -1   10
Mark DeRosa          7    3    0   10
Chris Snyder        -5   11    4   10
Cristian Guzman      9    8   -7   10
Cody Ross           11    2   -3   10
Robinson Cano        7    3    0   10
Luke Scott          15   -7    2   10
Yadier Molina      -12   11   11   10
Todd Helton         14  -13    8    9
Howie Kendrick       3    3    3    9
Maicer Izturis      -2    8    2    8
Kevin Youkilis      18  -13    3    8
Edgar Renteria       6    8   -6    8
Vernon Wells         8    2   -2    8
Brandon Phillips    -2    3    7    8
Dan Uggla            9    3   -5    7
Andre Ethier        15   -8    0    7
David DeJesus        5   -7    9    7
Moises Alou         23   -7   -9    7
Troy Glaus          14   -3   -4    7
Jack Wilson         -8    8    7    7
Nate McLouth        13    2   -9    6
Kelly Johnson        8    3   -5    6
Mark Grudzielanek    0    3    3    6
J.D. Drew           14   -8    0    6
Ryan Church          9   -8    5    6
Josh Bard            4   11   -9    6
Aaron Rowand         4    2    0    6
Jermaine Dye        20   -8   -6    6
Benjie Molina       -4   11   -1    6
Jeff Kent            9    3   -6    6
Jacoby Ellsbury      2    2    1    5
Franklin Gutierrez  -9   -8   22    5
Rick Ankiel         11    2   -8    5
Endy Chavez         -7   -8   20    5
Matt Kemp           13    2  -10    5
Dave Ross          -10   11    4    5
Hunter Pence        11   -8    2    5
Prince Fielder      26  -13   -8    5
Michael Young        6    8   -9    5
Jason Bay           17   -7   -6    4
Rod Barajas        -12   11    5    4
Dioner Navarro     -10   11    3    4
Carlos Quentin      16   -7   -5    4
Orlando Cabrera     -5    8    1    4
Gerald Laird       -12   11    5    4
Joe Inglett          4    3   -4    3
Asdrubal Cabrera    -6    3    6    3
Travis Hafner       18  -15    -    3
Gregg Zaun          -4   11   -4    3
Adam LaRoche        15  -13    1    3
Jack Cust           21   -7  -11    3
Derrek Lee          15  -13    1    3
Matt Diaz            8   -7    2    3
Skip Schumaker       5    2   -4    3
Marco Scutaro       -7    8    1    2
Khalil Greene      -11    8    5    2
Kazuo Matsui        -2    3    1    2
Alexei Ramirez       2    3   -3    2
Joey Votto          17  -13   -2    2
Ramon Hernandez     -6   11   -3    2
Akinori Iwamura     -1    3    0    2
Ronny Paulino      -10   11    1    2
Randy Winn           3   -8    7    2
Willie Harris       -5   -7   14    2
Xavier Nady         15   -8   -5    2
Adam Everett       -26    8   19    1
Garrett Atkins      11   -3   -7    1
Erick Aybar        -15    8    8    1
Paul Lo Duca        -8   11   -2    1
James Loney         13  -13    1    1
Blake DeWitt        -2   -3    6    1
Nomar Garciaparra    1    8   -8    1
Joe Crede           -6   -3   10    1
Eric Chavez          0   -3    4    1
Carlos Lee          27   -7  -19    1
Rajai Davis         -9    2    7    0
Carlos Gomez       -14    2   12    0
Jose Lopez          -5    3    2    0
Corey Hart           6   -8    2    0
Aubrey Huff         15  -15    -    0
Jason Varitek      -13   11    2    0
Frank Thomas        14  -15    -   -1
Jhonny Peralta      -1    8   -8   -1
A.J. Pierzynski     -8   11   -4   -1
Adam Jones         -10    2    7   -1
David Murphy         7   -8    0   -1
Eric Byrnes         -3   -7    9   -1
Raul Ibanez         19   -7  -13   -1
Fred Lewis           5   -7    1   -1
Ty Wigginton        10   -3   -8   -1
Conor Jackson        7   -7   -1   -1
Jamey Carroll      -12    3    7   -2
Nick Punto         -13    8    3   -2
David Eckstein      -8    8   -2   -2
Hideki Matsui       13  -15    -   -2
Reed Johnson         1    2   -5   -2
Mark Teahen          1   -8    4   -3
Freddy Sanchez       1    3   -7   -3
Carlos Delgado      13  -13   -3   -3
Ryan Sweeney        -4   -8    9   -3
Carlos Ruiz        -17   11    3   -3
Josh Willingham     12   -7   -8   -3
Miguel Olivo       -14   11    0   -3
Brian Schneider    -16   11    2   -3
Bobby Abreu         16   -8  -11   -3
Omar Vizquel       -22    8   11   -3
Matt Murton         -3   -7    7   -3
Lyle Overbay         4  -13    5   -4
Jim Edmonds          0    2   -6   -4
Adam Dunn           16   -7  -13   -4
Jason Giambi        17  -13   -8   -4
Chone Figgins       -1   -3    0   -4
Stephen Drew        -3    8   -9   -4
Kevin Kouzmanoff     3   -3    4   -4
Jesus Flores       -12   11   -3   -4
Ryan Theriot        -6    8   -7   -5
Johnny Estrada     -15   11   -1   -5
Brad Hawpe          18   -8  -15   -5
Kosuke Fukudome     -6   -8    9   -5
Casey Blake          6   -3   -8   -5
Brandon Inge       -14   11   -2   -5
Melvin Mora          1   -3   -3   -5
Doug Mientkiewicz    1  -13    7   -5
Clint Barmes       -15    3    7   -5
Nick Swisher         8  -13    0   -5
Paul Konerko        10  -13   -3   -6
Pat Burrell         15   -7  -14   -6
Brendan Harris       2    8  -16   -6
Yorvit Torrealba   -19   11   -2   -6
Andruw Jones        -9    2    1   -6
Matt Treanor       -15   11   -2   -6
Austin Kearns       -5   -8    7   -6
Michael Cuddyer     10   -8   -8   -6
Rickie Weeks         0    3   -9   -6
Adam Kennedy       -15    3    6   -6
Tadahito Iguchi     -9    3   -1   -7
Jeremy Hermida       1   -8    0   -7
Gabe Gross          -2   -8    3   -7
Casey Kotchman      -1  -13    7   -7
Ryan Langerhans    -14   -7   14   -7
Yuniesky Betancourt -7    8   -8   -7
Gary Matthews       -3   -8    4   -7
Garret Anderson      3   -7   -3   -7
John Buck          -15   11   -3   -7
Jason Kendall      -18   11    0   -7
Chris Duncan         8   -7   -9   -8
Dave Roberts        -5   -7    4   -8
Jose Molina        -26   11    7   -8
Ray Durham           0    3  -11   -8
Cesar Izturis      -23    8    7   -8
Alfredo Amezaga    -15    2    5   -8
Scott Hatteberg      4  -13    0   -9
Jason Kubel          6  -15    -   -9
Dmitri Young        13  -13   -9   -9
Willy Taveras      -14    2    3   -9
Pedro Feliz        -17   -3   11   -9
Ronnie Belliard      3  -13    1   -9
Michael Barrett     -9   11  -11   -9
Matt Stairs          6  -15    -   -9
Chris Young        -10    2   -1   -9
Ben Francisco        0   -7   -2   -9
Bobby Crosby       -20    8    3   -9
Corey Patterson    -18    2    7   -9
Juan Rivera          5   -7   -7   -9
Juan Pierre        -11   -7    9   -9
Jack Hannahan      -11   -3    5   -9
Coco Crisp          -8    2   -3   -9
Mark Loretta        -8    3   -5  -10
Alex Cora          -16    8   -2  -10
Luis Castillo       -5    3   -8  -10
Bill Hall           -6   -3   -1  -10
Marcus Thames        2   -7   -5  -10
Aaron Miles         -9    3   -5  -11
Shannon Stewart     -2   -7   -2  -11
Alexi Casilla      -10    3   -4  -11
Delmon Young         2   -7   -6  -11
Alex Gordon          1   -3   -9  -11
Rocco Baldelli       4  -15    -  -11
Brad Ausmus        -28   11    5  -12
Melky Cabrera      -11    2   -3  -12
Frank Catalanotto    2  -13   -1  -12
Jason LaRue        -26   11    3  -12
Morgan Ensberg      -6   -3   -3  -12
Jeff Keppinger      -7    8  -13  -12
Gary Sheffield       3  -15    -  -12
Daric Barton        -3  -13    4  -12
Jacque Jones       -10   -7    5  -12
Adam Lind           -3   -7   -2  -12
Omar Infante        -5   -7    9  -12
Mark Reynolds       -2   -3   -8  -13
Hank Blalock         5  -13   -5  -13
John McDonald      -29    8    8  -13
Reggie Willits     -10   -7    4  -13
Joey Gathright     -19    2    4  -13
Biily Butler         2  -15    -  -13
Julio Lugo         -15    8   -6  -13
Emil Brown         -10   -7    4  -13
Justin Upton        -5   -8    0  -13
Lastings Milledge   -6    2  -10  -14
Ryan Garko           5  -13   -6  -14
Edwin Encarnacion    3   -3  -14  -14
Chris Burke        -15   -2    3  -14
Felipe Lopez       -11    3   -7  -15
Jeremy Reed        -15    2   -2  -15
Craig Counsell     -22   -3   10  -15
Sean Casey          -2  -13    0  -15
Cliff Floyd          0  -15    -  -15
Darin Erstad       -19   -7   11  -15
Wes Helms           -7   -3   -5  -15
Greg Norton          6   -7  -14  -15
Jeff Mathis        -27   11    0  -16
Rich Aurilia        -5  -13    2  -16
Dan Johnson         -2  -13   -1  -16
Scott Podsednik    -18    2    0  -16
Ramon Vazquez       -6   -3   -7  -16
Toby Hall          -22   11   -5  -16
Gregor Blanco      -12   -7    3  -16
Geoff Blum         -15   -3    2  -16
Ryan Freel         -12    2   -6  -16
Jason Michaels     -14   -8    5  -17
Jose Bautista       -7   -3   -7  -17
Geoff Jenkins       -6   -8   -3  -17
Jose Guillen         2   -8  -11  -17
Wilson Betemit      -4  -13    0  -17
Michael Bourn      -20    2    1  -17
Jorge Cantu         -1   -3  -14  -18
Chris Gomez         -7   -3   -8  -18
Jay Payton         -15   -7    4  -18
Rob Mackowiak       -9   -7   -2  -18
Kevin Millar        -4  -13   -2  -19
Josh Barfield      -17    3   -5  -19
Trot Nixon         -11   -7   -1  -19
Brian N. Anderson  -19    2   -2  -19
Ben Broussard       -3  -13   -3  -19
So Taguchi         -12   -7    0  -19
Mike Jacobs          2  -13   -8  -19
Mark Kotsay        -11    2  -10  -19
Eric Hinske          0   -8  -11  -19
Jose Vidro          -4  -15    -  -19
Ross Gload          -5  -13   -1  -19
Mike Sweeney        -5  -15    -  -20
Jeff Francoeur     -11   -8   -1  -20
Luis Gonzalez       -2   -7  -11  -20
Ronny Cedeno       -24    3    1  -20
Cory Sullivan      -12   -3   -5  -20
Chad Tracy          -5  -13   -2  -20
Juan Uribe         -22   -3   -5  -20
Kevin Mench         -9   -7   -4  -20
Tony Pena          -32    8    3  -21
Jose Cruz          -13   -7   -1  -21
Tony Clark          -7  -13   -1  -21
Ken Griffey          1   -8  -15  -22
Marlon Anderson     -6   -7   -9  -22
Jonny Gomes         -7  -15    -  -22
Paul Bako          -31   11   -2  -22
Brad Wilkerson     -13   -8   -2  -23
Juan Castro        -31    8    0  -23
Alex Cintron       -16    8  -16  -24
David Dellucci      -6   -7  -11  -24
Aaron Boone        -10  -13   -2  -25
Richie Sexson       -4  -13  -10  -27
Abraham Nunez      -27    *    -  -27
Angel Berroa       -27    8   -9  -28
Miguel Cairo       -17  -13    1  -29
Jose Castillo      -22   -3   -5  -30
Craig Monroe       -17  -15    -  -32

*Used exclusively as a PH in 2008.

Adoption

2008-02-14T13:34:00.000-08:00

EXT. - KENDALL'S HOUSE - DAY

The front lawn of a suburban home. A big-haired, vacuous female TV reporter, DIANE THOMAS, faces the camera.

DIANE

Two years ago, we brought you the story of little Albert, a Sudanese orphan adopted by the Kendall family. Today we're bringing you an update on this heartwarming story.

PAN over to reveal the KENDALLS--parents ROY and LOIS, and three well-behaved small children: two white kids, DAVID and JOY, ages 7 and 8, and ALBERT, a six-year-old African boy.

DIANE (CONT'D)

We're here with Albert's adoptive parents, Roy and Lois Kendall, and their two biological children, David and Joy.

(to the Kendalls)

Mr. and Mrs. Kendall--has it been a struggle integrating an adoptive child into your family?

LOIS

Oh, not at all, Diane. Albert's just as much a part of our family as any of us.

ROY

That's right. I mean, obviously, there are going to be some differences, since David and Joy are our biological children, and Albert isn't, but they're all our children, and we love them all equally.

LOIS

Well, I'm not sure that you can say "equally"--there's a special bond you have with children you actually gave birth to. But of course we do love Albert very much.

ROY

Oh, definitely. I mean, even though he's not one of our [AIR QUOTES] "real" children, we always make sure Albert knows that we love him just as much as if he were--you know, a cat or a dog.

LOIS

Well, I don't know, Roy, you don't want to overstate it--because remember our cat Fluffy? Remember how much we loved him?

ROY

Well, I think we definitely love Albert as least as much as, like, a hamster. Or a goldfish.

LOIS

Uh...yeah. Yeah, I'll go with that. Goldfish sounds about right.

ROY

Because I used to have a goldfish, and I was, you know, upset when it died. And if something ever happened to Albert--you know, we'd be upset.

LOIS

Oh, yeah. Oh, I'd definitely be upset if Albert died. Not, you know, devastated. But definitely upset.

ROY

Well...maybe "upset" isn't quite the right word...

LOIS

We'd feel bad.

ROY

Oh, yeah. Yeah. We'd feel bad. I mean, we certainly wouldn't be happy about it.

LOIS

Yeah, we definitely don't want him to die.

ROY

Oh, no, not at all. If we had to choose between him being dead and him not being dead, we'd, you know, we'd definitely want him not to be dead.

LOIS

Oh, yeah.

(pause)

I guess...

ROY

Well, regardless of how we'd feel about it, we're definitely not, you know, actively seeking his death.

LOIS

Oh, no! Certainly not, no. Not actively.

ROY

Even if it would make our lives a lot easier.

LOIS

Oh, God, so much easier.

DIANE

(to the camera)

And there you have it. It's a struggle, but well worth it, for this California family and their adoptive Sudanese son.

(to the Kendalls)

Is there anything else you'd like to tell the viewers at home about little Albert?

ROY

Um...well, he does have a habit of trying to get into his mother's medicine cabinet.

LOIS

What?...Oh! Oh, right. Yeah, the medicine cabinet. Right.

ROY

So, if anything ever happened to him, like he got poisoned or something, it--it would be an accident.

LOIS

Right. Right. An accident. So there'd be no need to investigate further.

DIANE

Well, it sounds like he's in good hands.

(to the camera)

Back to you in the studio, Ron.

FADE TO BLACK.

Marcel & Chone...no, not a new sitcom: 2008 offense + defense projections

2007-12-16T23:29:00.000-08:00

With the offseason in full swing, I thought it was time for an update of my article from last year, combining offensive projections based on the Marcel system developed by Tango Tiger with the defensive projections of Chone Smith, aka AROM. The full methodology can be found in the previous article, but here's a quick recap of what each of the columns represent:

rcaa = The projected Runs Created Above Average* per 150 games (actually, 631 PAs) for each player in 2008, based on a weighted, regressed, age-adjusted three-year average. The numbers are park-adjusted and include SB/CS.

pos = Positional adjustment, also based on a three-year weighted average of the MLB mean at each position. Each player is projected at the position where they played the most games in 2007. At Tango Tiger's suggestion, I've also applied a "DH penalty" this year: the average DH is usually about +5 RCAA per 150 games, but that clearly doesn't reflect the offensive level of the average player a team should be able to find without taking defense into consideration at all, as it's worse than the average first baseman or corner outfielder. Also, the DH usually has a further negative impact by forcing the team to play an inferior defensive player, who could otherwise take the DH slot were their current DH able to play the field. I'm not sure there's a right answer to how to adjust for all this, but after playing with the numbers a little, I settled on 19 runs/150 games as my estimate of the overall DH impact.

def = AROM's projected defensive runs above/below average. Note that I don't have projections available for catchers, so all of them are given a defensive rating of 0.

p150 = The sum of the first three columns, representing a player's overall projection compared to average per 150 games.

PAs / dur = Durability is virtually impossible to predict, but I didn't want to ignore it entirely: for instance, catchers and older, injury-prone players (see Barry Bonds, even pre-indictment) really shouldn't be projected to play the same number of games as others. So I gave each player a projected number of plate appearances, based on a weighted, age-adjusted three-year average, and adjusted their per-150 game projection against that number. (For top-of-the-order hitters like Sizemore or Reyes, their defensive projection isn't prorated to the same degree as their offensive numbers, as, even though they'll have more PAs than other players with the same number of games played, they won't have any more defensive innings.) This negatively impacts players who've spent time in the minors the last few seasons, but, since their projections are based on a smaller sample of PAs, those projections are therefore less reliable, and the playing time adjustment acts as something of an extra level of regression.

Non-SB baserunning is not included, but, especially with regression, that likely wouldn't change any player's projection by more than a run or two. Also, no adjustment has been made for any difference in quality between the two leagues.

And now, the numbers:


name              rcaa  pos  def  p150 PAs  dur

Albert Pujols       58  -12    9   55  673   58
Chase Utley         30    6   14   50  657   52
Alex Rodriguez      49   -2   -5   42  690   46
David Wright        39   -2    2   39  693   43
Chipper Jones       49   -2    5   52  506   42
Grady Sizemore      21    4   10   35  752   40
Matt Holliday       34   -6   10   38  655   40
Miguel Cabrera      47   -2  -10   35  696   39
Victor Martinez     21   13    -   34  640   34
Carlos Beltran      21    4    9   34  629   34
Curtis Granderson   15    4   19   38  558   33
Jorge Posada        25   13    -   38  550   33
David Ortiz         49  -19    -   30  677   32
Joe Mauer           24   13    -   37  550   32
Vladimir Guerrero   40   -6   -5   29  639   29
Miguel Tejada       19    9    0   28  643   29
Ichiro Suzuki       19    4    1   24  729   28
Magglio Ordonez     33   -6    1   28  575   26
Carl Crawford       19   -6   11   24  657   25
Jose Reyes           7    9    6   22  754   25
Jimmy Rollins       10    9    2   21  758   25
Mark Teixeira       32  -12    3   23  668   24
Robinson Cano       16    6    3   25  596   24
Brian Roberts       14    6    2   22  664   24
Ryan Howard         39  -12   -3   24  592   22
Placido Polanco     10    6    9   25  563   22
Mark Ellis           6    6   13   25  552   22
Lance Berkman       36  -12   -3   21  629   21
Derek Jeter         24    9  -15   18  713   21
Carlos Guillen      21    9   -8   22  553   19
Brian Giles         13   -6   12   19  622   19
Brian McCann        13   13    -   26  458   19
Hanley Ramirez      30    9  -17   22  541   19
Alfonso Soriano     18   -6    6   18  664   19
Todd Helton         22  -12    7   17  645   18
Travis Hafner       37  -19    -   18  603   17
Aramis Ramirez      22   -2   -2   18  577   17
Aaron Hill          -1    6   13   18  588   17
Derrek Lee          34  -12   -1   21  505   17
Torii Hunter        13    4    1   18  572   16
Jeff Kent           17    6   -4   19  533   16
Edgar Renteria      10    9   -2   17  616   16
Johnny Damon         9    4    3   16  636   16
Nick Swisher        13    4   -2   15  633   15
Carlos Pena         39  -12   -1   26  340   14
Barry Bonds         39   -6   -9   24  359   13
Orlando Hudson       0    6    8   14  589   13
Ryan Zimmerman       9   -2    8   15  560   13
Vernon Wells         3    4    6   13  661   13
Mike Cameron         7    4    3   14  558   13
Russell Martin       5   13    -   18  424   12
Jason Bay           18   -6    0   12  660   12
Josh Bard           12   13    -   25  302   12
Jason Bartlett      -4    9   13   18  425   12
Milton Bradley      22   -6    8   24  314   12
Michael Young       15    9  -14   10  714   12
Troy Tulowitzki      0    9   14   23  330   12
Khalil Greene       -3    9    7   13  547   12
Andruw Jones         6    4    1   11  662   11
Aaron Rowand         5    4    2   11  590   11
Moises Alou         29   -6   -7   16  383   10
Kenji Johjima        3   13    -   16  391   10
Adrian Beltre        3   -2    8    9  656    9
Scott Rolen          3   -2   13   14  432    9
Ramon Hernandez      0   13    -   13  451    9
Adam Everett       -27    9   31   13  433    9
Hunter Pence        27    4   -3   28  207    9
Manny Ramirez       33   -6  -17   10  573    9
Bobby Abreu         15   -6   -1    8  689    9
Gary Matthews        1    4    4    9  594    9
Jason Varitek       -2   13    -   11  479    9
Alexis Rios         11   -6    4    9  599    8
Morgan Ensberg      10   -2    4   12  451    8
Adrian Gonzalez     19  -12    2    9  561    8
David DeJesus       -2    4    6    8  608    8
Matt Diaz           16   -6    7   17  291    8
Mark DeRosa          1    6    4   11  466    8
B.J. Upton          17    4   -5   16  300    8
Mark Grudzielanek   -4    6    7    9  524    8
Jermaine Dye        17   -6   -3    8  573    7
Luke Scott          20   -6    2   16  281    7
Rafael Furcal       -4    9    1    6  681    7
Bengie Molina       -4   13    -    9  473    7
Michael Barrett     -2   13    -   11  408    7
Mike Lowell          4   -2    5    7  613    7
Coco Crisp          -6    4    9    7  561    7
Freddy Sanchez       8    6   -7    7  602    6
Paul Lo Duca        -5   13    -    8  500    6
Ivan Rodriguez      -6   13    -    7  526    6
Prince Fielder      25  -12   -6    7  531    6
Ian Kinsler          6    6   -2   10  401    6
Jim Thome           27  -19    -    8  474    6
Garrett Atkins      14   -2   -6    6  660    6
Gregg Zaun          -4   13    -    9  394    6
Brandon Phillips    -1    6    2    7  496    6
Ryan Braun          35   -2  -17   16  210    5
Carlos Delgado      20  -12   -2    6  600    5
Hideki Matsui       17   -6   -4    7  499    5
Corey Hart          10   -6    5    9  343    5
David Eckstein      -6    9    3    6  557    5
Randy Winn           4   -6    7    5  645    5
Mike Napoli          1   13    -   14  221    5
Eric Byrnes         -1   -6   12    5  601    5
Justin Morneau      18  -12   -1    5  642    5
Mike Redmond         0   13    -   13  222    5
Kelly Johnson        5    6   -3    8  343    4
Troy Glaus          12   -2   -5    5  555    4
J.D. Drew           10   -6    1    5  500    4
Howie Kendrick       2    6    3   11  247    4
Jack Wilson        -11    9    7    5  577    4
Jose Valentin       -7    6   10    9  258    4
Ronny Paulino       -7   13    -    6  372    4
Jason Giambi        24  -19    -    5  445    4
Dave Roberts         1    4    0    5  482    4
Paul Konerko        18  -12   -3    3  640    4
Ryan Church         13   -6   -1    6  372    4
Orlando Cabrera     -5    9   -1    3  654    4
Kenny Lofton         5    4   -5    4  490    3
Emil Brown          -3   -6   13    4  510    3
Nick Markakis       11   -6   -1    4  488    3
Brendan Harris       6    9   -8    7  260    3
Eric Chavez          2   -2    4    4  520    3
A.J. Pierzynski     -9   13    -    4  513    3
Ronnie Belliard     -1    6   -2    3  569    3
Dustin Pedroia       1    6   -1    6  281    3
Chad Tracy           5   -2    0    3  470    2
Shane Victorino     -2   -6   12    4  373    2
Jack Cust           26  -19    -    7  212    2
Tadahito Iguchi     -3    6    0    3  568    2
Rocco Baldelli       3    4    0    7  194    2
Geoff Jenkins        5   -6    3    2  525    2
James Loney         20  -12   -2    6  199    2
Dan Uggla            2    6   -6    2  534    2
Alex Gonzalez      -10    9    4    3  439    2
Omar Vizquel       -17    9   10    2  600    2
Endy Chavez         -6   -6   16    4  231    2
Nook Logan         -14    4   13    3  268    1
Carlos Ruiz         -9   13    -    4  205    1
Jhonny Peralta       0    9   -8    1  634    1
Tony Graffanino     -6    6    2    2  375    1
Jim Edmonds          4    4   -6    2  437    1
Luis Castillo       -2    6   -3    1  597    1
Frank Thomas        20  -19    -    1  462    1
Rod Barajas        -11   13    -    2  293    1
Chris Duncan        15   -6   -7    2  291    1
Joe Crede           -8   -2   11    1  386    1
J.J. Hardy          -7    9   -1    1  426    1
Matt Murton          5   -6    3    2  322    1
Chris Duffy         -9    4    7    2  264    1
Mike Lieberthal    -11   13    -    2  217    1
Kazuo Matsui       -11    6    6    1  347    1
Corey Patterson    -14    4   11    1  496    0
Dave Ross          -12   13    -    1  276    0
Adam Dunn           16   -6  -10    0  659    0
Adam LaRoche         9  -12    3    0  575    0
Austin Kearns        1   -6    5    0  606    0
Brad Hawpe          12   -6   -6    0  532    0
Bobby Crosby       -15    9    6    0  384    0
Raul Ibanez         15   -6   -9    0  656    0
Jeremy Hermida       7   -6   -1    0  339    0
Melvin Mora          0   -2    2    0  608    0
Jeff Cirillo        -2   -2    4    0  235    0
Kevin Kouzmanoff     5   -2   -3    0  246    0
Ryan Theriot       -10    9    1    0  305    0
Juan Rivera         12   -6   -6    0  276    0
Matt Stairs         11  -12    1    0  403    0
Jamey Carroll      -19    6   12   -1  373    0
Damian Miller      -14   13    -   -1  309    0
Akinori Iwamura      5   -2   -4   -1  233    0
Chris Snyder       -14   13    -   -1  326   -1
Reed Johnson        -1    6    6   -1  406   -1
Johnny Estrada     -14   13    -   -1  433   -1
Marlon Anderson      3   -6    0   -3  210   -1
Marlon Byrd          0    4   -6   -2  328   -1
Tony Pena          -21    9   10   -2  242   -1
Jacque Jones        -3    4   -2   -1  538   -1
Daryle Ward          7  -12    2   -3  216   -1
Carlos Lee          19   -6  -14   -1  688   -1
Gerald Laird       -16   13    -   -3  284   -1
Chris Burke        -13    6    5   -2  381   -1
Mark Teahen          1   -6    3   -2  529   -1
Marcus Thames        1   -6    2   -3  276   -1
Scott Spiezio       -1   -2   -1   -4  222   -1
Pat Burrell         16   -6  -11   -1  600   -1
Andre Ethier         2   -6    1   -3  364   -1
Wilson Betemit      -2   -2    1   -3  328   -2
Dioner Navarro     -16   13    -   -3  341   -2
Casey Kotchman       2  -12    6   -4  283   -2
Reggie Sanders       1   -6    0   -5  228   -2
Michael Cuddyer     11   -6   -7   -2  589   -2
Josh Willingham     11   -6   -8   -3  450   -2
John Buck          -16   13    -   -3  413   -2
Omar Infante       -16    6    5   -5  268   -2
Chris Young        -10    4    2   -4  293   -2
Dmitri Young        14  -12   -5   -3  393   -2
Brian Schneider    -16   13    -   -3  448   -2
Reggie Willits      -6   -6    5   -7  238   -2
Gary Sheffield      16  -19    -   -3  456   -2
Jason Kubel          0   -6    0   -6  277   -3
Juan Pierre        -13    4    7   -2  729   -3
Tony Clark           6  -12   -1   -7  244   -3
Lyle Overbay         6  -12    3   -3  564   -3
Adam Kennedy       -15    6    4   -5  406   -3
Chone Figgins        4   -2   -5   -3  615   -3
David Dellucci       5   -6   -5   -6  307   -3
Neifi Perez        -27    9   11   -7  282   -3
Wes Helms            2   -2   -7   -7  266   -3
Ray Durham          -3    6   -7   -4  532   -3
Jason LaRue        -21   13    -   -8  259   -3
Shannon Stewart      0   -6    2   -4  468   -3
Toby Hall          -21   13    -   -8  261   -3
Marco Scutaro       -7    9   -7   -5  400   -3
Pedro Feliz        -17   -2   16   -3  607   -3
Yorvit Torrealba   -19   13    -   -6  320   -3
Alex Gordon         -7   -2    1   -8  258   -3
Yuniesky Betancourt -8    9   -5   -4  493   -3
Brandon Inge       -10   -2    8   -4  611   -3
Alfredo Amezaga    -18    4    7   -7  313   -4
Maicer Izturis      -2   -2   -3   -7  343   -4
Jose Cruz           -4   -6   -3   -7  317   -4
Ryan Garko           9  -12   -5   -8  299   -4
Kevin Youkilis       5  -12    2   -5  511   -4
Clint Barmes       -28    9   11   -8  289   -4
Jason Michaels      -8   -6    8   -6  388   -4
Doug Mientkiewicz   -5  -12    7  -10  274   -4
Cliff Floyd          4   -6   -5   -7  407   -4
Willy Taveras      -12    4    3   -5  530   -4
Julio Lugo         -11    9   -3   -5  590   -5
Miguel Olivo       -20   13    -   -7  415   -5
Jose Guillen         6   -6   -6   -6  512   -5
Ryan Klesko          1  -12    1  -10  296   -5
Juan Encarnacion     0   -6    0   -6  464   -5
Frank Catalanotto    5   -6   -6   -7  436   -5
Greg Norton          4  -19    -  -15  207   -5
Jason Kendall      -18   13    -   -5  583   -5
Ty Wigginton         5   -2  -10   -7  454   -5
Jeff DaVanon       -10    4  -10  -16  193   -5
Stephen Drew       -12    9   -6   -9  341   -5
Geoff Blum         -16    6    0  -10  335   -5
Ross Gload          -2  -12   -2  -16  209   -5
Ryan Langerhans    -16   -6   11  -11  320   -5
Craig Wilson        -6  -12    2  -16  218   -5
Jose Lopez         -16    6    3   -7  515   -5
Bill Hall            4    4  -14   -6  549   -5
Jeremy Reed        -19   -6    9  -16  222   -6
Garret Anderson      2   -6   -3   -7  523   -6
Joey Gathright     -19   -6   14  -11  315   -6
So Taguchi         -10    4   -4  -10  357   -6
John McDonald      -27    9    5  -13  284   -6
Rondell White      -11   -6    3  -14  262   -6
Chris Gomez         -4  -12   -1  -17  206   -6
Mike Jacobs          4  -12   -1   -9  395   -6
Melky Cabrera       -7    4   -5   -8  447   -6
Ben Broussard        4  -12   -1   -9  388   -6
Darin Erstad       -16    4    1  -11  339   -6
Mark Loretta        -8    9   -8   -7  549   -6
Casey Blake          0   -2   -5   -7  563   -6
Hank Blalock        -2   -2   -4   -8  491   -6
Xavier Nady          5   -6   -7   -8  454   -6
Delmon Young         0   -6   -5  -11  339   -6
Marcus Giles        -9    6   -4   -7  569   -6
Alex Cora          -24    6    2  -16  250   -6
Todd Walker         -1  -12   -1  -14  293   -6
Kevin Mench         -6   -6    3   -9  441   -6
Lew Ford           -14   -6    5  -15  284   -7
Bobby Kielty        -7   -6   -4  -17  247   -7
Ryan Freel         -12    4   -3  -11  405   -7
Yadier Molina      -23   13    -  -10  432   -7
Scott Hatteberg     -2  -12    0  -10  470   -7
Juan Uribe         -24    9    7   -8  535   -7
Royce Clayton      -23    9    2  -12  390   -7
Rickie Weeks         0    6  -16  -10  460   -7
Jeff Francouer      -1   -6   -1   -8  605   -8
Jay Gibbons         -2   -6   -5  -13  374   -8
Nomar Garciaparra   -1  -12    1  -12  423   -8
Chris Woodward     -24   -2    1  -25  193   -8
Mike Piazza          6  -19    -  -13  381   -8
Eric Hinske         -4  -12    0  -16  327   -8
Craig Biggio       -13    6   -2   -9  571   -8
Mike Sweeney         3  -19    -  -16  327   -8
Brady Clark         -8   -6    0  -14  374   -8
Brad Ausmus        -25   13    -  -12  432   -8
Cory Sullivan      -15    4   -6  -17  317   -8
Rich Aurilia        -4  -12    3  -13  416   -9
Conor Jackson        1  -12   -2  -13  416   -9
Cesar Izturis      -27    9    2  -16  331   -9
Ronny Cedeno       -29    9   -1  -21  252   -9
Dan Johnson          0  -12   -1  -13  425   -9
Aaron Miles        -19    6    0  -13  427   -9
Scott Podsednik    -17   -6   10  -13  433   -9
Luis Gonzalez        0   -6   -4  -10  588   -9
Shawn Green          3   -6   -7  -10  552   -9
Robert Fick        -15  -12   -1  -28  201   -9
Alex Cintron       -17   -2   -2  -21  269   -9
Jay Payton         -11   -6    5  -12  490   -9
Josh Barfield      -16    6   -5  -15  384   -9
Edwin Encarnacion    1   -2  -12  -13  455   -9
Trot Nixon          -7   -6   -2  -15  410   -9
Sean Casey          -3  -12    2  -13  493  -10
Rob Mackowiak       -6   -6   -5  -17  358  -10
Kevin Millar         1  -12   -2  -13  519  -10
Juan Castro        -27   -2   -5  -34  198  -11
Ken Griffey         10   -6  -17  -13  539  -11
Sammy Sosa          -5  -19    -  -24  285  -11
Mark Kotsay        -12    4   -8  -16  432  -11
Jonny Gomes          2  -19    -  -17  422  -11
Craig Counsell     -20   -2    6  -16  433  -11
Richie Sexson        7  -12   -7  -12  581  -11
Jorge Cantu         -6  -12   -2  -20  369  -12
Russ Adams         -18   -2   -9  -29  260  -12
Preston Wilson      -9   -6   -7  -22  346  -12
Brad Wilkerson      -5  -12    0  -17  446  -12
Jose Vidro           3  -19    -  -16  510  -13
Jose Castillo      -20   -2    1  -21  388  -13
Steve Finley       -21    4  -10  -27  300  -13
Abraham Nunez      -26   -2    5  -23  356  -13
Aaron Boone         -9  -12   -2  -23  360  -13
Felipe Lopez        -9    9  -13  -13  684  -14
Jeff Conine         -8  -12   -3  -23  382  -14
Miguel Cairo       -23  -12   -1  -36  250  -14
Craig Monroe       -12   -6    0  -18  525  -15
Jose Bautista       -8   -2  -13  -23  422  -15
Jason Lane         -13    4  -22  -31  333  -16
Nick Punto         -22   -2    4  -20  505  -16
Angel Berroa       -26    9  -14  -31  335  -17
Aubrey Huff         -1  -19    -  -20  577  -18
Shea Hillenbrand    -9  -19    -  -28  460  -21

* Now that Baseball-Reference includes Linear Weights, it's reasonable to ask why I stuck with RCAA. In large part, it's just because my spreadsheets already included RCAA, and the difference should be quite small. But, also, while Linear Weights conceptually should be more accurate than RCAA, I'm not sure the ones listed on BB-Ref necessarily are: they don't include SB/CS, which is a pretty major issue, and I suspect that the way the park adjustments are applied ends up overrating players in hitters' parks.

LET'S KILL ALL THE BELGIANS: A Child's Guide to Genocide

2007-06-05T01:15:00.000-07:00

Pg. 1: This is a Belgian. He would like to eat your brain.

(A fanged, clawed, vampiric creature in a beret glowers at the reader.)

Pg. 2: Belgians come from Belgium, a land of pure evil, like that place in “Lord of the Rings.” It smells like pee.

(A map of Europe. Friendly countries like the Netherlands or Germany are marked with smiley faces. Belgium is colored blood-red and is dotted with skull-and-crossbones emblems. The label “PEE SMELL” is scrawled next to the map, with an arrow pointing at Belgium.)

Pg. 3: If Belgians had the chance, they would take over America and kill your mommy and daddy. They would make you learn Belgian in school and eat waffles three meals a day. You probably think that sounds good, but, trust me, you would get sick of it real quick.

(The Belgian jabs a pointed stick at our protagonist, an eight-year-old boy named Billy. Billy, wearing a dunce cap, has a textbook labeled “BELGIAN” in one hand and a fork in the other, as he pokes at a huge stack of waffles. Behind him, Billy’s parents are being burned at the stake under a burning American flag.)

Pg. 4: If the Belgians came over to America, they would eat your puppy. If you don’t have a puppy, they would buy you one and then eat it. That’s how the Belgians roll.

(The Belgian drools over a plate carrying a puppy with X’s for eyes and its tongue hanging out.)

Pg. 5: Belgians are also responsible for Brussels sprouts. You hate Brussels sprouts, don’t you? Of course you do.

(Billy stares forlornly at an enormous pile of Brussels sprouts.)

Pg. 6: If you ever see a Belgian, you should run away and alert the nearest police officer or Dutchman.

(Billy flees in terror from the Belgian chasing him.)

But you probably won’t be able to find anyone, so you will have to kill him yourself.

Pg. 7: There are many ways to kill a Belgian. You can decapitate them.

(Billy severs the Belgian’s head with a battleaxe.)

Pg. 8: You can set them on fire.

(Billy lights the Belgian aflame with a flamethrower.)

Pg. 9: You can stab them in the heart with a crucifix.

(Billy plunges a sharpened crucifix into the Belgian’s chest. Blood sprays everywhere.)

Pg. 10: But I know what you’re thinking: “I’m just a little kid. And there are more than ten million Belgians. I can’t possibly kill them all myself.” And you’re right.

(Billy faces the reader, palms turned outward. He’s surrounded by question marks.)

Pg. 11: If America’s political leaders had any stones at all, they would kill every single Belgian by dropping nuclear bombs on them.

(Nuclear missiles rain onto a Belgian cityscape, with a flaming Belgian flag in the foreground.)

Pg. 12: But they won’t do it, because they are all pussies.

(On the floor of Congress, a group of cats in pinstriped suits groom themselves and play with balls of yarn.)

Pg. 13: But you can change their minds. Write a letter to your Congressman, and ask him not to let Belgians eat your puppy.

(An over-the-shoulder shot of Billy writing a letter, that consists only of two words: “NUKE BELGIUM”.)

Pg. 14: And take all the money you can find in Mommy and Daddy’s wallets and send it with the letter.

(Billy stuffs a wad of bills into an envelope labeled “WHITE HOUSE.")

Politicians like money.

Pg. 15: Explain to your classmates about the Belgian threat, and tell them to do the same thing you did.

(Billy talks to a group of other kids on the playground. Two word balloons sprout from his mouth: one containing the Belgian flag with an “X” through it, the other containing the image of the rain of nukes. The other kids look concerned.)

Pg. 16: The politicans will find your arguments so persuasive that they will be convinced to do what must be done about Belgium.

(A politician opens an envelope to find a stack of bills, and his eyes turn to dollar signs. In the background, other politicians react the same way.)

Pg. 17: Belgium will be wiped from the face of the Earth.

(A group of smoldering skeletons in berets lie strewn about a post-apocalyptic hellscape.)

Remember: we can fight the Belgians over there, or we can fight them over here.

Pg. 18: Once we’ve killed all the Belgians, you can eat all the ice cream you want, and it will be Christmas every day. Except on your birthday, when it will be Double Christmas. That’s right, Double Christmas.

(Billy, wearing a party hat, eats bowl after bowl of ice cream. Behind him are three Christmas trees, with dozens of presents under each.)

Pg. 19: After all the Belgians are dead, then we can get to work on killing all the Swedes.

(The same picture of the nukes raining down on the city as before, but with a burning Swedish flag instead of the Belgian one.)

Don’t even get me started on the Swedes.

THE END

The Adventures of Billy in Hell

2007-03-09T23:22:00.000-08:00

I.

When Billy got to Hell, he was confused. He recognized it immediately as Hell, of that he was sure--the reddish stalactites and bubbling pools of brimstone were familiar to him from every cartoon depiction he had seen of the place. Yet something still troubled him.

"What am I doing here?" he asked the devil, who was standing beside him. "I thought only bad people went to Hell."

"That's correct," replied the devil. "But they never would have been able to complete that atom bomb if it hadn't been for you. You're responsible for millions of people being killed. If anyone ought to be here, it's you."

"But I'm just a little kid," Billy argued. "Kids aren't supposed to get blamed for that kind of stuff."

"Tell it to a jury, pal," the devil scoffed. "We don't deal with age restrictions down here. Everybody gets what they deserve."

Billy mulled this over for a moment and decided that it sounded fair.

"At least I'll still get to see all my friends and family," Billy reasoned. "They must have all died when the bomb went off too."

"Oh, they sure did," said the devil. "But you won't be seeing them. All of your friends and family went to Heaven."

"All of them?" asked Billy. "Even Uncle Alvin? Daddy used to say that Uncle Alvin was going to Hell because he had sex in his butt."

The devil chortled. "Oh, I'm sure he did. But, like I said, you killed a lot of people. A lot of good people, but a lot of bad ones too. Honestly, so many bad people that we just didn't have space to put them all. So some of the lesser sinners got sent up to Heaven."

The devil paused.

"Well, the space was a concern," he continued, "but, also, I didn't want to spend all my free time greeting a bunch of newcomers."

The landscape of Hell changed to something that Billy had never seen before.

The devil looked right at Billy. He was different too. "I wanted to make sure I had plenty of time to spend on you."

And it began.
________________________________________________________________

II.

Eventually Billy came to realize that nobody got any older in Hell. He wondered whether this fact made him better off--being a spry ten-year-old rather than a desiccated, crippled husk like the majority of the inhabitants seemed to be. After a while, though, such distinctions hardly seemed to matter.

For worse than any physical agony was that, while Billy's body remained the same, his mind continued to age--not normal aging, as through the accumulation of years of experience, but rather through the sheer fact of existing for so long. There was no way to tell how long he had been there--since nothing ever changed in Hell and nobody ever slept, it was impossible to tell one day from another--but judging by the fashions of some of the recent arrivals, Billy figured it had to have been at least several hundred years. Far longer, at any rate, than anyone ought to be alone with his thoughts. Particularly someone as young as Billy, who exhausted his store of memories fairly quickly.

As young as Billy was, even he knew that humans could eventually become accustomed to any sort of misery. Like a dog being shocked in a psychology experiment, they would soon succumb to hopelessness and stop looking for a way out. The normal rules did not apply down here, though. No matter how many times Billy admitted to himself that nothing was ever going to change, that this was forever, his mind still screamed without cessation for death. The human brain was not equipped to deal with eternity. Billy sometimes wondered if people had this same trouble in Heaven, which was presumably just as eternal. Probably not, he decided.

There was a reason why they called it Hell, after all.
______________________________________________________________

III.

There was rarely any talking in Hell. Most people generally failed to see the point of it. But one day, or whatever you could call it, Billy took notice of one of the new arrivals. She was probably in her late thirties, but had the skin of a much older woman. She had bleached blonde hair, and clearly bore the scars, real and metaphorical, of the type of rough life Billy could scarcely imagine. But what drew him to her was the fact that, rather than screaming spasmodically like most new arrivals or affecting the dull stare of the veterans, she seemed merely...uncomfortable. As if insects were crawling on her skin.

Billy spoke for the first time in several billion years. "Hello," he said. "My name's Billy."

The woman looked at him warily. After some time, she responded, "Nadine."

This marked the endpoint of Billy's conversational abilities. Eventually, he decided to go forward with the one topic that seemed relevant: "So...why did you end up here?"

"No one thing, I suppose," sighed Nadine. "I treated everybody that ever loved me like crap. Betrayed the trust of anyone who was ever stupid enough to place it in me. I never showed any respect to my own body. I had two abortions, and the one kid I did have I screwed up so bad that she'll probably end up here too. I finally just had enough of it all and took a whole bunch of pills. That probably didn't help my case much either."

She exhaled deeply. "I guess that's probably how it is for just about everyone here," she concluded. "No one thing."

She looked back at Billy. "So...what about you?"

"I was involved in the creation of an atomic bomb that caused the deaths of millions and millions of people," Billy replied. "Also, one time I knocked down Jimmy Mitchell from up the block and took his trike, until my mom made me give it back.

"But I think it was mostly the atom bomb."

___________________________________________________________

IV.

And after that, they spent months talking without cessation--about their lives, about their expectations of the place where they had ended up, about nothing at all.

"Don't they say you're supposed to see St. Peter before you end up here?" asked Billy. "Be judged for your sins? I didn't get anything like that. The bomb went off, and the next thing I knew, I was here."

"Yeah, that's right," said Nadine. "I didn't see St. Peter either. Aren't you supposed to get a fair trial? Face your accuser?"

"It's in the Constitution," Billy agreed.

"Hell is un-American!" said Nadine. "Alert the Supreme Court!"

Billy turned toward the assorted demons gathered below them and shouted out, "Bunch a' Commies!" (He didn't really know what it meant, but it was something he'd heard his dad say.)

They both laughed uproariously for several minutes.

"I tell you," Nadine said, wiping tears from her eyes, "Hell can't be so bad, as long as you have good friends to share it with."

"Of course it can," Billy pointed out. "It's Hell."

They never spoke again.

___________________________________________________________

V.

So they went around the circle, these damned, each of them explaining what they had done to end up in Hell.

"I really have no idea what I did," said Cyrus. "I lived a God-fearing life. I've run it through my mind for so long, and the only thing I can think of is that time I killed a Mexican. But they can't really be holding that against me, can they? I mean, it's not like I killed a real person or something."

"I was a compulsive gambler," said Kirk.

"Wow," responded Billy. "I didn't think they'd send you to Hell just for gambling. That's harsh."

"Well, I gambled with people's lives," Kirk explained. "And, boy, was it ever fun, let me tell you. Once you've gambled with people's lives, going back to gambling with money feels like screwing your sister.

"Actually," Kirk mused, "screwing my sister probably didn't help either."

"Grog spear last woolly mammoth," Grog said. "Satan say Grog practice poor conservation skills. But Grog greatly relished thought of being last human to taste grilled mammoth trunk--was great delicacy in Grog's time. Also Grog just loved to spear stuff. Big stuff, little stuff, mammoths--it not matter what."

"I shot William McKinley," said Leon.

Kirk, who was something of a history buff, was quite impressed. The celebrity damned usually tended to only mingle amongst themselves. ("Grog was celebrity in Grog's day," protested Grog, to no avail.)

"That's funny," said Roger to Leon, "because I shot Franklin Roosevelt."

"Roosevelt was never shot," Kirk pointed out.

"Not while he was alive," said Roger.

___________________________________________________________

VI.

"I don't know a whole lot about your people," Billy said to Grog. "Did they have fire in your time?"

"Of course!" replied Grog, beaming with pride. "Grog invent fire!"

"Wow!" Billy said. "Is that true?"

"No," Grog admitted, deflated. "Grog pathological liar. But you not understand how easy it was to lie in Grog's time. In fact, Grog invent lying--that part true. People had never heard lying before--their brains not able to comprehend that you say something that not truth.

"One time Grog out hunting with friend, Plog. Plog say, 'Sun hot today.' So Grog say, 'You know, Grog invent sun.' Plog tell everyone else, 'Hey! Grog invent sun!' Everyone say, 'Wow! Grog greatest genius in history! Us make Grog king!'"

"Wow, you were really a king?" asked Billy.

"Yes!" said Grog. "Grog not lying about being celebrity. Grog was most famous person of Grog's time--known by nearly seven people.

"So you understand," Grog continued, "lying very addictive for Grog. Grog could say, 'Biggest cave--you know, cave not filled with scorpions--that cave talk to Grog. It tell Grog it want Grog be only one lives there, or it crush everybody else. Everybody say, 'Wow, better let Grog have big cave with no scorpions. We not want be crushed.'

"Or Grog could say, 'Mammoth poop very healthy. It filled with vital nutrients. Eat mammoth poop, maybe you live to thirty.' So everybody run out and eat mammoth poop. Grog never laugh so hard. Lying never get old. Eventually, it become difficult to tell where lies end and Grog begin."

They sat in silence for a few moments, staring out at the masses of writhing, gnashing humanity. "You don't see a lot of other cavemen down here," Billy finally said.

"This true," said Grog. "Satan explain this to Grog once. Most caveman's brains not so advanced--they little more than animals. And animals can not sin--they not responsible for actions. So animals not go to Hell. So Grog being punished for having advanced brain--Satan say Grog smart enough to know difference between right and wrong. But where Grog's moral examples, huh?" he continued, his voice rising. "Grog just do what everybody else do! Life...life very unfair to Grog."

"Are you crying?" asked Billy.

"No," answered Grog forcefully. "Grog not cry."

But the art of lying had advanced quite a bit since Grog's day.

Mojo projected leaderboards -- 2007

2007-02-19T14:31:00.000-08:00

Here are the projected 2007 leaders in various stats using park-adjusted Marcel ("Mojo") projections. Playing time calculations are based on a weighted, age-adjusted three-year average, which is why guys like Ryan Howard don't show up on most of the lists. The exception is for players like Robinson Cano who didn't debut in the majors until 2005 or 2006; in these cases, the playing time calculations only use the past one or two seasons. Fair? Probably not.

To qualify for the rate stat leaderboards, hittes need to have at least 502 projected PAs and pitchers at least 162 projected IP. Hitters with fewer projected PAs can still show up in the top ten if they would still rank among the league's leaders after enough hitless PAs to get them to 502 were added to their total (full rules can be found here). Also, of course, changes in usage patterns (Joel Pineiro) and injuries (Pedro Martinez) have not been accounted for.

AMERICAN LEAGUE


Batting Average

Suzuki-SEA    .325
Cano-NYY      .319
Guerrero-LAA  .317
Young-TEX     .313
Jeter-NYY     .313
Tejada-BAL    .312
Guillen-DET   .312
Mauer-MIN   **.324
Polanco-DET   .307
Crawford-TBD  .303

On-base %

Hafner-CLE    .406
Abreu-NYY     .397
Drew-BOS      .396
Ramirez-BOS   .391
Giambi-NYY  **.395
Mauer-MIN   **.402
Rodriguez-NYY .386
Jeter-NYY     .384
Ortiz-BOS     .384
Guillen-DET   .376

Slugging %

Hafner-CLE    .594
Ortiz-BOS     .593
Ramirez-BOS   .580
Guerrero-LAA  .550
Teixeira-TEX  .534
Rodriguez-NYY .532
Dye-CHW       .531
Konerko-CHW   .526
Morneau-MIN   .509
Glaus-TOR     .509

OPS

Hafner-CLE    1.000
Ortiz-BOS      .977
Ramirez-BOS    .971
Guerrero-LAA   .926
Rodriguez-NYY  .918
Teixeira-TEX   .901
Drew-BOS       .901
Konerko-CHW    .890
Dye-CHW        .877
Giambi-NYY   **.893

At Bats

Suzuki-SEA    690
Young-TEX     689
Tejada-BAL    659
Jeter-NYY     646
Crawford-TBD  645
Blalock-TEX   632
Teixeira-NYY  628
Figgins-LAA   623
Beltre-SEA    618
Damon-NYY     613

Plate Appearances

Suzuki-SEA    739
Young-TEX     736
Jeter-NYY     720
Teixeira-TEX  711
Tejada-BAL    707
Abreu-NYY     695
Blalock-TEX   691
Rodriguez-NYY 687
Ortiz-BOS     685
Figgins-LAA   684

Hits

Suzuki-SEA    224 
Young-TEX     216
Tejada-BAL    206
Jeter-NYY     202
Crawford-TBD  195
Guerrero-LAA  186
Damon-NYY     180
Teixeira-TEX  178
Figgins-LAA   177
Mora-BAL      174

Total Bases

Ortiz-BOS     349
Teixeira-TEX  335
Tejada-BAL    332
Young-TEX     325
Guerrero-LAA  322
Rodriguez-NYY 317
Crawford-TBD  304
Konerko-CHW   303
Ramirez-BOS   302
Beltre-SEA    298
Jeter-NYY     298
Wells-TOR     298

Doubles

Overbay-TOR   45
Roberts-BAL   43
Lowell-BOS    42
Tejada-BAL    41
Young-TEX     41
Teixeira-TEX  40
Abreu-NYY     39
Cano-NYY      39
Cabrera-LAA   38
Hafner-CLE    38
Ortiz-BOS     38

Triples

Crawford-TBD  17
Figgins-LAA   12
Sizemore-CLE   9
Suzuki-SEA     9
Lofton-TEX     8
Rios-TOR       7
Castillo-MIN   6
DeJesus-KCR    6
Guillen-DET    6
Inge-DET       6
Teahen-KCR     6
Young-TEX      6

Home Runs

Ortiz-BOS     47
Ramirez-BOS   39
Konerko-CHW   38
Rodriguez-NYY 38
Teixeira-TEX  38
Hafner-CLE    34
Dye-CHW       33
Guerrero-LAA  33
Glaus-TOR     33
Beltre-SEA    29
Sexson-SEA    29

Bases on Balls

Abreu-NYY     110
Ortiz-BOS      93
Giambi-NYY     85
Rodriguez-NYY  82
Ramirez-BOS    79
Hafner-CLE     78
Drew-BOS       77
Thome-CHW      77
Teixeira-TEX   75
Chavez-OAK     74

Singles

Suzuki-SEA    182
Young-TEX     150
Jeter-NYY     146
Kendall-OAK   140
Castilo-MIN   136
Crawford-TBD  136
Tejada-BAL    136
Figgins-LAA   134
Damon-NYY     122
Mora-BAL      122

Adjusted OPS+

Hafner-CLE    161
Ortiz-BOS     149
Ramirez-BOS   148
Guerrero-LAA  142
Rodriguez-NYY 140
Drew-BOS      132
Teixeira-TEX  129
Konerko-CHW   127
Sizemore-CLE  127
Guillen-DET   126

Runs Created

Ortiz-BOS     134
Teixeira-TEX  123
Rodriguez-NYY 122
Guerrero-LAA  121
Tejada-BAL    119
Ramirez-BOS   118
Hafner-CLE    116
Young-TEX     116
Jeter-NYY     114
Konerko-CHW   110

Extra-Base Hits

Ortiz-BOS     87
Teixeira-TEX  80
Hafner-CLE    73
Ramirez-BOS   72
Guerrero-LAA  70
Tejada-BAL    70
Sizemore-CLE  67
Wells-TOR     67
Young-TEX     66
Beltre-SEA    65
Overbay-TOR   65

Times on Base

Jeter-NYY     277
Abreu-NYY     276
Suzuki-SEA    273
Rodriguez-NYY 265
Ortiz-BOS     263
Young-TEX     263
Teixeira-TEX  261
Tejada-BAL    254
Damon-NYY     241
Guerrero-LAA  241

At Bats per Home Run

Ortiz-BOS     12.5
Ramirez-BOS   13.3
Hafner-CLE    14.1
Giambi-NYY  **14.1
Glaus-TOR     14.4
Thome-CHW   **14.2
Konerko-CHW   15.1
Rodriguez-NYY 15.7
Sexson-SEA    15.7
Dye-CHW       16.2

Outs

Young-TEX     473
Suzuki-SEA    466
Blalock-TEX   463
Tejada-BAL    453
Teixeira-TEX  450
Crawford-TBD  449
Figgins-LAA   446
Beltre-SEA    445
Jeter-NYY     444
Wells-TOR     435

ERA

Santana-MIN   3.02
Halladay-TOR  3.32
Pettitte-NYY  3.60
Sabathia-CLE  3.72
Lackey-LAA    3.82
Wang-NYY      3.87
Buehrle-CHW   4.04
Rogers-DET    4.05
Bedard-BAL    4.05
Haren-OAK     4.09

Innings

Santana-MIN   233.3
Buehrle-CHW   223.0
Garland-CHW   216.7
Lackey-LAA    211.7
Westbrook-CLE 211.3
Bonderman-DET 205.3
Vazquez-CHW   205.0
Robertson-DET 202.0
Lee-CLE       197.7
Weaver-SEA    196.0

Earned Runs Allow.

Vazquez-CHW   108
Pineiro-BOS   105
Weaver-SEA    105
Garland-CHW   102
Buehrle-CHW   100
Ortiz-MIN      99
Bonderman-DET  98
Westbrook-CLE  98
Robertson-DET  96
Lee-CLE        95

Adjusted ERA+

Santana-MIN   149
Halladay-TOR  138
Pettitte-NYY  123
Sabathia-CLE  118
Lackey-LAA    114
Wang-NYY      114
Buehrle-CHW   114
Bedard-BAL    110
Haren-OAK     110
Rogers-DET    110

NATIONAL LEAGUE


Batting Average

Cabrera-FLA   .322
Pujols-STL    .321
Holliday-COL  .308
Helton-COL    .307
Wright-NYM    .304
Loretta-HOU   .303
Atkins-COL  **.309
Lo Duca-NYM   .300
Pierre-LAD    .299
Berkman-HOU   .298

On-base %

Helton-COL    .416
Pujols-STL    .414
Berkman-HOU   .410
Johnson-WSN   .403
Cabrera-FLA   .398
Giles-SDP     .384
Bay-PIT       .383
Dunn-CIN      .376
Burrell-PHI   .374
Wright-NYM    .374

Slugging %

Pujols-STL    .625
Berkman-HOU   .555
Ramirez-CHC   .553
Cabrera-FLA   .550
Delgado-NYM   .538
Bay-PIT       .534
Holliday-COL  .531
Lee-CHC     **.551
Jones-ATL     .526
Soriano-CHC   .523

OPS

Pujols-STL    1.039
Berkman-HOU    .965
Cabrera-FLA    .948
Helton-COL     .925
Bay-PIT        .917
Ramirez-CHC    .903
Delgado-NYM    .903
Dunn-CIN       .897
Holliday-COL   .897
Wright-NYM     .897

At Bats

Pierre-LAD    689
Rollins-PHI   685
Soriano-CHC   639
Uggla-FLA     638
Furcal-LAD    629
Lee-HOU       625
Cabrera-FLA   623
Renteria-ATL  611
Winn-SFG      605
Wilson-PIT    598

Plate Apperances

Rollins-PHI   741
Pierre-LAD    737
Cabrera-FLA   702
Furcal-ATL    692
Soriano-CHC   691
Uggla-FLA     691
Giles-SDP     686
Dunn-CIN      683
Lee-HOU       679
Pujols-STL    679

Hits

Pierre-LAD    206
Cabrera-FLA   201
Rollins-PHI   193
Pujols-STL    188
Furcal-LAD    181
Lee-HOU       177
Renteria-ATL  177
Uggla-FLA     177
Soriano-CHC   175
Winn-SFG      174

Total Bases

Pujols-STL    366
Cabrera-FLA   343
Soriano-CHC   334
Lee-HOU       317
Rollins-PHI   310
Jones-ATL     306
Ramirez-CHC   303
Uggla-FLA     301
Bay-PIT       296
Dunn-CIN      294

Doubles

Cabrera-FLA   43
Rollins-PHI   43
Helton-COL    41
Pujols-STL    40
Soriano-CHC   40
Lee-HOU       39
Renteria-ATL  39
Belliard-WSN  38
Biggio-HOU    38
Winn-SFG      38

Triples

Reyes-NYM     14
Pierre-LAD    13
Roberts-SFG   11
Rollins-PHI   11
Furcal-LAD     9
Sullivan-COL   8
Hudson-ARI     7
Uggla-FLA      7
Ramirez-FLA    6
Vizquel-SFG    6
Wilson-PIT     6
Winn-SFG       6

Home Runs

Pujols-STL    45
Dunn-CIN      41
Jones-ATL     41
Soriano-CHC   38
Ramirez-CHC   35
Delgado-NYM   34
Lee-HOU       34
Berkman-HOU   33
Bay-PIT       32
Cabrera-FLA   32

Bases on Balls

Dunn-CIN      111
Giles-SDP      98
Berkman-HOU    95
Helton-COL     95
Bonds-SFG      89
Burrell-PHI    88
Pujols-STL     87
Johnson-WSN    80
Bay-PIT        77
Beltran-NYM    77

Singles

Pierre-LAD    164
Eckstein-STL  136
Loretta-HOU   131
Furcal-LAD    128
Vizquel-SFG   127
Renteria-ATL  125
Cabrera-FLA   124
Wilson-PIT    124
Rollins-PHI   122
Reyes-NYM     118

Adjusted OPS+

Pujols-STL    166
Berkman-HOU   148
Cabrera-FLA   147
Bay-PIT       135
Delgado-NYM   133
Wright-NYM    132
Johnson-WSN   131
Helton-COL    130
Ramirez-CHC   127
Dunn-CIN      126

Runs Created

Pujols-STL    152
Cabrera-FLA   136
Berkman-HOU   120
Helton-COL    114
Bay-PIT       113
Dunn-CIN      110
Soriano-CHC   110
Lee-HOU       108
Jones-ATL     107
Ramirez-CHC   106

Extra-Base Hits

Pujols-STL    87
Soriano-CHC   81
Cabrera-FLA   77
Dunn-CIN      73
Lee-HOU       73
Jones-ATL     72
Rollins-PHI   71
Beltran-NYM   70
Ramirez-CHC   70
Bay-PIT       69

Times on Base

Pujols-STL    281
Cabrera-FLA   279
Helton-COL    266
Giles-SDP     264
Dunn-CIN      257
Berkman-HOU   256
Pierre-LAD    253
Rollins-PHI   249
Bay-PIT       245
Furcal-LAD    244

At Bats per Home Run

Pujols-STL    13.0
Dunn-CIN      13.7
Jones-ATL     14.2
Howard-PHI  **11.9
Delgado-NYM   15.1
Ramirez-CHC   15.6
Edmonds-STL **15.8
Berkman-HOU   15.9
Soriano-CHC   16.8
Burrell-PHI   17.2

Outs

Rollins-PHI   492
Pierre-LAD    483
Soriano-CHC   464
Uggla-FLA     460
Furcal-LAD    449
Lee-HOU       448
Renteria-ATL  434
Jones-ATL     432
Winn-SFG      432
Wilson-PIT    429

ERA

Oswalt-HOU    3.28
Carpenter-STL 3.29
Zambrano-CHC  3.38
Peavy-SDP     3.42
Willis-FLA    3.44
Webb-ARI      3.46
Duke-PIT      3.57
Smoltz-ATL    3.58
Arroyo-CIN    3.73
Martinez-NYM  3.74

Innings

Hernandez-ARI 230.7
Webb-ARI      230.0
Oswalt-HOU    229.7
Willis-FLA    228.7
Zito-SFG      222.0
Zambrano-CHC  220.3
Carpenter-STL 219.7
Arroyo-CIN    218.0
Garcia-PHI    217.3
Harang-CIN    214.7

Earned Runs Allow.

Hernandez-ARI 117
Lopez-COL     111
Marquis-CHC   107
Davis-ARI     104
Moyer-PHI     104
Garcia-PHI    102
Morris-SFG    102
Johnson-ARI   100
Fogg-COL       99
Milton-CIN     97
Zito-SFG       97

Adjusted ERA+

Oswalt-HOU    133
Zambrano-CHC  132
Carpenter-STL 132
Webb-ARI      131
Duke-PIT      122
Willis-FLA    122
Smoltz-ATL    122
Arroyo-CIN    121
Peavy-SDP     120
Martinez-NYM  115

Top 10 films of 2006

2007-02-14T00:53:00.000-08:00

1. The Queen
2. Neil Young: Heart of Gold
3. L'Enfant
4. The Proposition
5. An Inconvenient Truth
6. United 93
7. Volver
8. Pan's Labyrinth
9. Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
10. Half Nelson

Metacritic.com's most acclaimed films of 2006

2007-01-23T01:41:00.000-08:00

I used the same point ranking system as in my previous post about TV shows on Metacritic's collected top-10 lists for 2006 films. The leaders:


1. United 93              325
2. Pan's Labyrinth        235
3. Letters from Iwo Jima  230
4. The Departed           224.5
5. The Queen              199.5
6. Army of Shadows        186
7. Borat: ...             151
8. Children of Men        143.5
9. Volver                 112
10. Babel                 111.5

Metacritic.com's most acclaimed TV series of 2006

2007-01-16T14:19:00.000-08:00

Metacritic is probably the premier resource for collecting critical judgments about various media. For the end of the year, they've collected a great deal of critics' top-ten lists for both film and TV. For their film coverage, they've included a histogram showing how many top-ten lists each film pops up on. But there's no such summary for their TV page, so I thought I'd rectify the omission. A histogram, however, isn't a great way to show what the most acclaimed works really were, since it gives the same weight to a first-place vote as it does to a tenth-place. So I took a cue from baseball MVP voting, giving 14 points to a first-place finish, 9 points to a second, 8 points for third place, and so on. For lists that are arranged alphabetically, each show gets 5.5 points. Here are the point leaders for 2006:


1. The Wire             132
2. 24                    81
3. Friday Night Lights   78.5
4. The Office            61.5
5. Battlestar Galactica  58.5
6. Dexter                55
7T. Heroes               52
7T. Ugly Betty           52
9. The Sopranos          45.5
10. Rescue Me            37

And, in comparison, here are the leaders for 2005:


1. Lost                 119
2. Arrested Development  71
3. Veronica Mars         52
4. Battlestar Galactica  48
5. My Name Is Earl       44
6. House M.D.            42
7. The Shield            40
8. Rescue Me             38
9T. The Colbert Report   36
9T. Entourage            36

I think the comparison sort of indicates how fickle critics can be, with only two shows (Battlestar Galactica and Rescue Me) appearing on both lists. I mean, the third season of Lost has been a little subpar so far, true, but (especially considering how strong the second half of season 2 was) enough so to drop it from being by far the most acclaimed show on the air into a tie for fourteenth?

Top ten TV shows of 2006

2006-12-22T11:38:00.000-08:00

The end of the calendar year is really a pretty stupid time to do a best-TV list: often you're having to consider the tail end of one season to the beginning of another, when there may be big quality differences between the two years, or compare a show that hasn't aired since May to one that's only been on for a couple months. Nonetheless, every real TV critic does one, so I figured I might as well follow their lead. (The Sopranos and The Wire don't show up here just because I'm waiting to catch up with them on DVD.)

1. Lost
2. 24
3. Rescue Me
4. House M.D.
5. Battlestar Galactica
6. Invasion
7. My Name Is Earl
8. Weeds
9. Friday Night Lights
10. Veronica Mars

Marcel projected "SLWTS"

2006-12-21T11:32:00.000-08:00

So it's time to go where many men have gone before: with a projection system for 2007. This one, however, isn't really my own invention, but rather a combination of several systems developed by other, much smarter people.

The basis of these projections is the Marcel projection system developed by Tango Tiger. Intended as minimum standard any projection system ought to reach, Marcel projections use a weighted, regressed, age-adjusted average of a player's MLB performance the last three years. There have been several systems developed that have been shown to be more effective than Marcels, but none by more than a few percentage points--and, in the projections below, I've corrected for one of the major shortcomings of Marcels by adjusting for park effects. With this change, I suspect that the reliability of this system may well vault into the midst of the other superior projection systems. While there are several other flaws of Marcels (a big one being the lack of minor league data), I do like them because, since they're solely based on past performance, they seem less...speculative than other systems. At the very least they do an exceptional job showing who's been the best the past three years, with a bonus for younger players.

I put together the projections here in a similar fashion to the fine work done by Matt Rauseo on his "Poor Man's Super Linear Weights." I started with each player's Marcel projection for Runs Created Above Average (per 150 games) for 2007. I then adjusted for position (the positional adjustments, too, are based on a weighted average of positional average performance the last three years), and then added in the defensive projections for 2007 developed by Chone Smith, to get an overall projection in runs above average per 150 games. I didn't include non-SB baserunning, in part because I didn't know where to get reliable projections, but also because in any given year hardly any players are more than five runs above or below average in baserunning: with regression, it's unlikely that baserunning would change a player's overall projection by more than a run or two.

Now, if you look at the projections per 150 games, you'll see that Travis Hafner is tied for the highest projection, at +53 runs. (More on that later.) One of the reasons Hafner hasn't been thought of as the best player in the AL is because he's been rather injury-prone over the past three years. Carlos Guillen has a better per-150 projection than Derek Jeter or Miguel Tejada, but Guillen's missed a lot more playing time than the latter two. So, while this may not be sabermetrically sanctioned, I included one further adjustment next to the per-150 projections: a durability adjustment, based on a weighted, age-adjusted average of a player's PAs the last three years. Durability is nearly impossible to predict, of course--Miguel Tejada might blow out his ACL on opening day--but I think it's safe to assume that Barry Bonds, for example, won't be playing 160 games. This durability adjustment might also be unfair to players who haven't been in the majors for all of the last three seasons, but for these players, as well as ones who've suffered from injuries, the adjustment sort of acts as an extra level of regression, since their projections are based on a smaller sample. I think it's even more useful for players at the bottom of the chart: there are lots of awful players who have never been given much of a chance, but at the bottom of the table you'll see the worst players who have been allowed to suck up a lot of playing time the last few years.

One further caveat about the defensive numbers--there are three groups of players who don't have defensive projections listed:

1) Designated hitters. While DHs are adjusted here against the average hitter at their position, there's no further "DH penalty" added. (This would be the other reason that Hafner's not considered the best player in the AL.) Since there's no agreement on how big this penalty ought to be, I decided it was best to just present the raw data and allow people to make their own adjustments.

2) Catchers. Chone doesn't list defensive projections for them. Keep that in mind when you see Victor Martinez's projection.

3) Each player is projected at the position where they played the most games in 2006. Some players haven't played enough games at those positions to show up on Chone's chart.

Finally, the numbers. I think these shed a little light on some of the free agent signings this offseason:


name               rcaa   pos  def  p150 PAs   dur

Albert Pujols         65  -13    1   53  679   58
Travis Hafner         57   -4    -   53  569   48
David Ortiz           43   -4    -   39  685   43
Vladimir Guerrero     45   -5   -3   37  641   38
Miguel Cabrera        45   -3   -8   34  702   38
Miguel Tejada         25   10   -2   33  707   38
Derek Jeter           25   10   -3   32  720   37
Alex Rodriguez        39   -3   -5   31  687   34
Victor Martinez       21   12    -   33  627   33
Carlos Beltran        23    4    5   32  649   33
Chase Utley           20    7    8   35  589   33
Carlos Guillen        28   10    0   38  521   32
Joe Mauer             26   12    -   38  483   30
Barry Bonds           61   -7   -5   49  361   28
Jason Bay             31   -7    3   27  641   28
Grady Sizemore        23    4    2   29  602   28
Jim Edmonds           26    4    4   34  500   27
Lance Berkman         44  -13   -5   26  625   26
Michael Young         15   10   -3   22  736   26
Chipper Jones         32   -3    2   31  476   24
Adrian Beltre         14   -3   10   21  669   22
Jorge Posada          14   12    -   26  534   22
Manny Ramirez         44   -7  -14   23  604   22
Brian Roberts          9    7    5   21  657   22
Brian Giles           18   -5    6   19  686   21
Scott Rolen           22   -3    8   27  466   21
J.D. Drew             28   -5    1   24  508   20
Jeff Kent             19    7   -4   22  544   19
Ichiro Suzuki         21   -5    0   16  739   19
Carl Crawford         14   -7   10   17  681   18
David Wright          30   -3   -8   19  579   18
Jason Giambi          27   -4    -   23  493   18
Bobby Abreu           25   -5   -4   16  695   18
Ryan Howard           43  -13   -4   26  422   17
Brian McCann          26   12    -   38  283   17
Johnny Damon          15    4   -3   16  674   17
Jim Thome             26   -4    -   22  478   17
Jermaine Dye          22   -5    1   18  588   17
Ivan Rodriguez         7   12    -   19  549   17
Todd Helton           28  -13    1   16  640   17
Mark Teixeira         24  -13    3   14  711   16
Vernon Wells          10    4    1   15  656   16
Ramon Hernandez        9   12    -   21  469   16
Robinson Cano         17    7    0   24  405   16
Mike Cameron          10    4    5   19  511   15
Derrek Lee            34  -13   -1   20  483   15
Jimmy Rollins          4   10   -1   13  741   15
Michael Barrett        8   12    -   20  457   15
Placido Polanco        1    7   10   18  524   15
Ray Durham            13    7   -3   17  542   15
Torii Hunter           6    4    7   17  531   15
Carlos Delgado        29  -13   -1   15  590   14
Andruw Jones          16    4   -7   13  662   14
Mike Piazza            7   12    -   19  448   14
Aramis Ramirez        25   -3   -7   15  595   14
Jose Reyes             4   10    0   14  612   14
Jason Varitek          5   12    -   17  478   13
Matt Holliday         20   -7    1   14  570   13
Bill Hall              7   10   -3   14  542   12
Julio Lugo             1   10    2   13  591   12
Moises Alou           25   -5   -5   15  471   11
Morgan Ensberg        14   -3    3   14  523   11
Jhonny Peralta         4   10    1   15  471   11
Paul Lo Duca           1   12    -   13  534   11
Mark Ellis             1    7   11   19  369   11
Nick Johnson          26  -13    0   13  518   11
Rafael Furcal          4   10   -4   10  692   11
Raul Ibanez           15   -7    2   10  641   11
Frank Thomas          23   -4    -   19  341   11
Garrett Atkins        17   -3   -1   13  492   10
Omar Vizquel          -7   10    7   10  633   10
Khalil Greene         -1   10    3   12  492   10
Eric Chavez            7   -3    6   10  614    9
Aaron Hill            -7    7   14   14  397    9
Luis Castillo         -2    7    4    9  603    9
Gary Matthews          6    4    0   10  536    9
Melvin Mora           12   -3   -1    8  662    8
Freddy Sanchez         8   -3    7   12  431    8
Mark Loretta           2    7   -1    8  611    8
Alfonso Soriano       13   -7    1    7  691    8
Mark Grudzielanek     -7    7   10   10  489    8
Bengie Molina         -1   12    -   11  426    8
Gary Sheffield        23   -5   -8   10  451    7
Aaron Rowand          -1    4    5    8  531    7
Edgar Renteria        -2   10   -2    6  666    7
Paul Konerko          24  -13   -5    6  646    6
Kenji Johjima          5   12    -   17  224    6
Bobby Crosby         -11   10    9    8  451    6
Hanley Ramirez        15   10  -12   13  301    6
Jose Valentin         -8    7   11   10  357    6
Milton Bradley        10   -5    4    9  423    6
Hideki Matsui         24   -7   -9    8  482    6
Tadahito Iguchi       -1    7    2    8  449    6
Marcus Giles           2    7   -3    6  587    6
Jason Kendall         -7   12    -    5  643    5
Johnny Estrada        -5   12    -    7  439    5
Eric Byrnes           -4    4    6    6  559    5
Mike Sweeney          12   -4    -    8  401    5
Jason Bartlett        -6   10    9   13  244    5
Gregg Zaun            -4   12    -    8  401    5
Curtis Granderson     -2    4    7    9  354    5
Juan Rivera           15   -7    1    7  438    5
Dan Uggla              6    7   -3   10  288    5
Pat Burrell           13   -7   -1    5  589    5
Rocco Baldelli         9    4   -4    9  308    5
Justin Morneau        16  -13    2    5  544    4
Geoff Jenkins         10   -5    0    5  600    4
Ryan Zimmerman        11   -3    0    8  316    4
Brandon Inge          -3   -3   10    4  594    4
Adam Kennedy          -4    7    2    5  493    4
A.J. Pierzynski       -7   12    -    5  516    4
Orlando Hudson        -4    7    1    4  574    4
Mike Lieberthal       -5   12    -    7  369    4
Matt LeCroy           -1   12    -   11  220    4
Russell Martin         0   12    -   12  201    4
Ronny Paulino         -1   12    -   11  206    4
Adam Dunn             18    7   -8    3  683    4
Marlon Anderson       -3    7    4    8  281    4
Mike Napoli            3   12    -   15  138    3
Lyle Overbay          17   -3   -1    3  639    3
Tony Graffanino       -3    7    1    5  382    3
Todd Walker            1    7   -4    4  453    3
Corey Koskie           1   -3    7    5  371    3
Mike Lowell            2   -3    4    3  609    3
Kenny Lofton           4    4   -3    5  417    3
Mike Redmond          -3   12    -    9  196    3
Emil Brown             5   -7    6    4  448    3
David Eckstein       -10   10    3    3  621    3
Dave Roberts           5   -7    5    3  480    3
Ronnie Belliard       -1    7   -3    3  602    3
Juan Uribe           -16   10    9    3  528    3
Chris Duffy           -4    4    8    8  193    3
Jason LaRue           -8   12    -    4  344    2
Carlos Lee            15   -7   -6    2  679    2
Jack Wilson          -13   10    5    2  632    2
Craig Biggio          -4    7   -1    2  620    2
Josh Barfield         -2    7    0    5  247    2
Jose Guillen           5   -5    3    3  468    2
Casey Blake            6   -5    1    2  543    2
David Ross            -6   12    -    6  216    2
Orlando Cabrera       -8   10    0    2  637    2
Damian Miller         -9   12    -    3  400    2
Matt Lawton           -1    4    -    3  369    2
Michael Cuddyer        7   -5    0    2  520    2
Magglio Ordonez        9   -5   -1    3  434    2
Corey Patterson      -12    4   10    2  543    2
Chris Burke           -9    7    6    4  300    2
Randy Winn             4   -5    3    2  660    2
Ian Kinsler            1    7   -3    5  202    2
Eliezer Alfonzo       -5   12    -    7  130    1
Darin Erstad          -7    4    5    2  396    1
Matt Murton            7   -7    2    2  270    1
Nick Markakis          5   -5    3    3  233    1
Adam Everett         -24   10   15    1  541    1
Jamey Carroll        -11    7    5    1  401    1
Chad Tracy             5   -3   -1    1  600    1
Rich Aurilia           0   -3    4    1  459    1
Troy Glaus            13   -3   -9    1  533    1
Ryan Freel            -3    4    0    1  507    1
Chris Shelton         10  -13    4    1  333    1
Brady Clark           -4    4    1    1  522    1
Jose Vidro             3    7   -9    1  440    1
Alexis Rios           -1   -5    7    1  504    0
Marcus Thames          6   -7    2    1  247    0
Adrian Gonzalez       12  -13    1    0  336    0
Brandon Phillips     -10    7    3    0  258    0
Jay Gibbons            4   -4    -    0  424    0
Brian Schneider      -12   12    -    0  445    0
J.J. Hardy           -12   10    1   -1  205    0
Wes Helms             12  -13    -   -1  253    0
Austin Kearns          0   -5    5    0  479    0
Cliff Floyd            7   -7    0    0  471    0
Jeff DaVanon          -3    4   -2   -1  277    0
Josh Willingham       12   -7   -6   -1  257    0
David DeJesus          3   -7    3   -1  511   -1
D'Angelo Jimenez      -7    7   -1   -1  239   -1
Andre Ethier           7   -7   -2   -2  188   -1
Sean Casey             9  -13    3   -1  531   -1
Alex Gonzalez        -17   10    6   -1  486   -1
Richie Sexson         18  -13   -6   -1  515   -1
David Dellucci         9   -7   -3   -1  389   -1
Bill Mueller           4   -3   -2   -1  357   -1
Nomar Garciaparra     11  -13    1   -1  383   -1
Nook Logan           -11    4    5   -2  199   -1
Dmitri Young           2   -4    -   -2  349   -1
Jeff Cirillo           0   -3    0   -3  208   -1
Juan Pierre           -6    4    1   -1  737   -1
Reggie Sanders        -1   -5    4   -2  368   -1
Rod Barajas          -14   12    -   -2  398   -1
Javy Lopez             2   -4    -   -2  441   -1
Jose Lopez           -11    7    2   -2  407   -1
Oscar Robles         -12    7    -   -5  148   -1
Jeremy Hermida        -4   -5    4   -5  166   -1
Robert Fick          -16   12    -   -4  206   -1
Xavier Nady            2   -5    0   -3  353   -2
Marco Scutaro        -10   10   -2   -2  433   -2
Miguel Olivo         -15   12    -   -3  364   -2
Chone Figgins         -1    4   -5   -2  684   -2
Alex Cora            -18   10    5   -3  319   -2
Jonny Gomes            1   -4    -   -3  335   -2
Reed Johnson           2   -7    3   -2  504   -2
Ken Griffey           11    4  -17   -2  456   -2
Yorvit Torrealba     -17   12    -   -5  224   -2
Dustan Mohr          -10    4    -   -6  195   -2
Wilson Betemit        -2   -3    1   -4  281   -2
Mike Jacobs           10  -13    2   -5  257   -2
Matt Stairs            1   -4    -   -3  430   -2
Felipe Lopez          -2   10  -10   -2  594   -2
Joe Randa             -2   -3    2   -3  421   -2
Aubrey Huff            5   -3   -4   -2  591   -2
David Newhan         -10    4    -   -6  242   -2
Chris Snyder         -18  -12    -   -6  245   -2
Coco Crisp             2    4   -9   -3  545   -2
Juan Encarnacion      -3   -5    5   -3  566   -2
Ryan Langerhans       -7   -7    8   -6  281   -2
Tony Clark             8  -13   -1   -6  258   -3
Phil Nevin             1   -4    -   -3  471   -3
Toby Hall            -16   12    -   -4  384   -3
Reggie Abercrombie   -23    4    3  -16  118   -3
Adam LaRoche          10  -13   -1   -4  384   -3
Kendry Morales       -12  -13    3  -22   92   -3
Geoff Blum           -22  -10    6   -6  329   -3
Tony Womack          -14    7    0   -7  294   -3
Kazuo Matsui         -13    7    0   -6  333   -3
Miguel Cairo         -17    7    3   -7  322   -3
Jeremy Reed          -15    4    4   -7  299   -3
Sean Burroughs        -9   -3    4   -8  260   -3
J.T. Snow              5  -13   -1   -9  255   -4
John Buck            -18   12    -   -6  383   -4
Shawn Green            3   -5   -2   -4  620   -4
Joe Crede             -5   -3    4   -4  537   -4
Henry Blanco         -21   12    -   -9  251   -4
Mark Bellhorn        -12   -3    9   -6  389   -4
Mark Kotsay           -2    4   -6   -4  605   -4
Omar Infante         -12    7   -1   -6  393   -4
Yuniesky Betancourt  -10   10   -7   -7  327   -4
Rondell White         -2   -4    -   -6  398   -4
Craig Counsell       -17   10    2   -5  520   -4
Jason Phillips       -22   12    -  -10  267   -4
Gary Bennett         -26   12    -  -14  205   -4
Scott Spiezio         -6   -3   -2  -11  250   -5
Daryle Ward           -1   -9    0  -10  291   -5
Brad Hawpe             4   -5   -6   -7  388   -5
Terrence Long         -8   -5    1  -12  256   -5
John McDonald        -26   10    1  -15  203   -5
Ben Broussard          9  -13   -2   -6  480   -5
Laynce Nix           -21    4    2  -15  212   -5
Ramon Martinez       -17    7   -6  -16  194   -5
Mike Matheny         -22   12    -  -10  332   -5
Jacque Jones          -1   -5    1   -5  582   -5
Edwin Encarnacion     -2   -3   -7  -12  279   -5
Chris Woodward       -21    7    -  -14  226   -5
Carlos Pena            4  -13   -4  -13  254   -5
Melky Cabrera         -2   -7   -6  -15  233   -5
Mark DeRosa           -5   -5    1   -9  376   -5
Maicer Izturis        -4   -3   -6  -13  270   -5
Trot Nixon            -2   -5   -6   -9  383   -5
Bobby Kielty          -5   -7    2  -10  336   -6
Rickie Weeks          -3    7  -15  -11  318   -6
Brian N. Anderson    -24    4    1  -19  185   -6
Jose Cruz             -2   -7    -   -9  389   -6
Nick Punto           -13   -3    7   -9  413   -6
Larry Bigbie         -10   -7    2  -15  245   -6
Frank Catalanotto      4   -7   -6   -9  430   -6
Chad Moeller         -31   12    -  -19  201   -6
Prince Fielder         5  -13   -5  -13  301   -6
Nick Swisher           7  -13   -2   -8  477   -6
Alex (S.) Gonzalez   -16   -2    0  -18  216   -6
Endy Chavez           -7   -5    -  -12  343   -6
Craig Monroe           1   -7   -1   -7  570   -6
Pedro Feliz          -14   -3   10   -7  601   -7
Chris Gomez           -5  -13    -  -18  233   -7
Todd Hollandsworth   -12   -5    -  -17  246   -7
Jose Hernandez        -7  -13    -  -20  208   -7
Craig Wilson           4  -13   -2  -11  402   -7
Eric Young           -12   -7   -1  -20  214   -7
Cory Sullivan        -15    4   -2  -13  328   -7
Michael Tucker       -10   -7    -  -17  264   -7
Kevin Youkilis         2  -13   -1  -12  379   -7
Lew Ford              -6   -7    3  -10  465   -7
Conor Jackson         -3  -13   -1  -17  271   -7
Jason Michaels        -5   -7    1  -11  427   -7
Rob Mackowiak         -6    4   -9  -11  428   -7
Brad Wilkerson         0   -7   -2   -9  543   -7
Luis A. Gonzalez     -15    7   -7  -15  302   -8
Juan Castro          -22   10   -5  -17  281   -8
Nick Green           -20    7   -6  -19  250   -8
Ty Wigginton           1  -13    -  -12  395   -8
So Taguchi            -9   -7    2  -14  334   -8
Luis Gonzalez          3   -7   -4   -8  595   -8
Ronny Cedeno         -29   10    1  -18  276   -8
Dan Johnson           -4  -13    0  -17  284   -8
Damon Hollins        -15   -5    2  -18  273   -8
Mark Teahen            1   -3  -12  -14  353   -8
Alex Cintron         -17   10   -5  -12  396   -8
Steve Finley         -11    4   -3  -10  503   -8
Jeff Francoeur        -4   -5   -4  -13  391   -8
Marlon Byrd          -20    4   -3  -19  275   -8
Eric Hinske           -6   -5    -  -11  466   -8
Garret Anderson        1   -7   -3   -9  555   -8
Russ Adams           -17    7   -7  -17  322   -9
Shannon Stewart       -3   -7   -4  -14  382   -9
Willy Taveras        -16    4    0  -12  465   -9
Kevin Millar           5  -13   -3  -11  518   -9
Joey Gathright       -23    4   -2  -21  277   -9
Yadier Molina        -28   12    -  -16  379  -10
Vinny Castilla       -13   -3    2  -14  451  -10
Aaron Boone          -14   -3   -1  -18  346  -10
Jorge Cantu           -3    7  -18  -14  454  -10
Jeromy Burnitz        -6   -5   -2  -13  504  -10
John Mabry           -14  -13    1  -26  253  -11
Clint Barmes         -28   10    0  -18  370  -11
Luis Matos           -16   -7    -  -23  296  -11
Travis Lee           -11  -13    2  -22  311  -11
Edgardo Alfonzo      -15   -3   -4  -22  313  -11
Brad Ausmus          -27   12    -  -15  459  -11
Doug Mientkiewicz    -11  -13    5  -19  362  -11
Aaron Miles          -22    7   -1  -16  451  -12
Carl Everett         -14   -4    -  -18  394  -12
Kevin Mench           -2   -5   -7  -14  526  -12
Neifi Perez          -27    7    3  -17  433  -12
Jeff Conine           -2  -13    0  -15  479  -12
David Bell           -11   -3    1  -13  582  -12
Jason Lane            -4   -5  -11  -20  368  -12
Bernie Williams       -4   -5   -7  -16  521  -13
Jay Payton            -5   -7   -4  -16  508  -13
Scott Hatteberg       -4  -13    1  -16  543  -14
Shea Hillenbrand       2  -13   -3  -14  596  -14
Hank Blalock          -6   -3   -4  -13  691  -14
Cesar Izturis        -19   -3    -  -22  433  -15
Abraham Nunez        -25   -3   -1  -29  356  -16
Royce Clayton        -22   10   -7  -19  550  -17
Scott Podsednik      -15   -7    3  -19  610  -18
Jose Castillo        -18    7  -13  -24  479  -18
Preston Wilson        -9   -7  -10  -26  466  -19
Angel Berroa         -24   10   -8  -22  565  -20

name = number of steroids taken by a player the last three years. Dah, I mean, their names

rcaa = Marcel projection for Runs Created Above Average per 150 games (623 PAs)

pos = positional adjustment, based on the projected RCAA for an average hitter at the position per 150 games

def = Chone Smith's defensive projections

p150 = total projected runs above average per 150 games

PAs = projected PAs for 2007

dur = total runs above average per projected PAs

GWAA - 2006 Update

2006-12-09T08:46:00.000-08:00

Well, it's December once more. The time of year when, as the days grow shorter and the weather grows colder, the thoughts of even the most hard-hearted among us turn to one thing: mostly pointless, vaguely self-indulgent baseball stats calculated out to several decimal places in order to give an illusory impression of precision. Naturally, I'm being facetious: every time of the year is a time when people's thoughts turn to mostly pointless, vaguely self-indulgent baseball stats calculated out to several decimal places in order to give an illusory impression of precision.

But December is the time when these stats get applied to Hall of Fame debates. As such, I thought it was time to bring out an update to the Gross Wins Above Average (GWAA) stat I introduced in this article in April. Though the full methodology and reasoning behind the stat can be found in the link, basically GWAA (nee NWAA) involves calculating the RCAP (Runs Created Above Position) for hitters and RSAA (Runs Saved Above Average) for pitchers for each season in a player's career, converting this to wins above and below average, and then only counting the above-average seasons. I think this gives a better picture of a player's total value, peak and career, than average- or replacement-level based stats. There are a few problems with the stats used, most notably that, while they adjust for position, they don't include defense, as I have little faith in defensive stats from before the last few years, but I still think the results are worth taking a look at.

For my last article, I only had the stats available to calculate RCAP back to 1972. Fortunately, thanks to Baseball Prospectus and Retrosheet, I now have the data going back to 1957. There are thirty-eight Hall of Famers who either debuted in 1957 or later, or had no more than 130 AB or 50 IP prior to 1957. Here are the GWAA scores for each:


name              gwaa

Joe Morgan        70.17
Mike Schmidt      54.08
George Brett      53.89
Tom Seaver        52.71
Rod Carew         50.29
Reggie Jackson    49.68
Bob Gibson        48.68
Wade Boggs        47.59
Willie McCovey    47.16
Robin Yount       43.62
Steve Carlton     42.88
Paul Molitor      41.97
Willie Stargell   41.63
Jim Palmer        40.27
Gaylord Perry     40.18
Carl Yastrzemski  38.44
Phil Niekro       38.14
Eddie Murray      36.79
Johnny Bench      36.44
Carlton Fisk      35.66
Dave Winfield     35.39
Juan Marichal     33.42
Fergie Jenkins    31.78
Ryne Sandberg     30.69
Orlando Cepeda    30.29
Nolan Ryan        29.31
Kirby Puckett     28.45
Gary Carter       26.71
Billy Williams    26.40
Dennis Eckersley  26.13
Don Sutton        25.05
Tony Perez        23.83
Brooks Robinson   21.38
Catfish Hunter    18.50
Ozzie Smith       17.35
Rollie Fingers    15.91
Bruce Sutter      14.13
Lou Brock         10.69

Joe Morgan really should never have invented this stat.

Now, let's compare the thirty-eight Hall-eligible players in the post-1957 group with the highest GWAA scores, to see who might have been the most qualified candidates to fill those slots while keeping the overall size of the Hall the same. Non-Hall of Famers are in italics:


Joe Morgan        70.17
Mike Schmidt      54.08
George Brett      53.89
Tom Seaver        52.71
Rod Carew         50.29
Reggie Jackson    49.68
Bob Gibson        48.68
Dick Allen        48.12
Wade Boggs        47.59
Willie McCovey    47.16
Robin Yount       43.62
Steve Carlton     42.88
Paul Molitor      41.97
Bert Blyleven     41.64
Willie Stargell   41.63
Jim Palmer        40.27
Gaylord Perry     40.18
Carl Yastrzemski  38.44
Joe Torre         38.26
Phil Niekro       38.14
Ted Simmons       37.15
Eddie Murray      36.79
Johnny Bench      36.44
Carlton Fisk      35.66
Dave Winfield     35.39
Alan Trammell     33.97
Albert Belle      33.91
Juan Marichal     33.42
Lou Whitaker      33.22
Bobby Grich       32.75
Fergie Jenkins    31.78
Ryne Sandberg     30.69
Orlando Cepeda    30.29
Ron Santo         30.15
Frank Howard      29.72
Nolan Ryan        29.31
Reggie Smith      29.16
Pedro Guerrero    28.73

The Guerrero bar lives! In the previous article, Pedro Guerrero had the fourteenth-highest GWAA score among Hall-eligible players debuting since 1972, a class that included fourteen Hall of Famers. He also has the thirty-eighth highest score among eligible players debuting since 1957, a class that includes thirty-eight Hall of Famers. While in actuality, Guerrero's poor defense would probably knock him out of Hall of Fame consideration, I think this result provides further justification for 28-29 GWAA being a reasonable place to set the borderline for deserving Hall of Famers. (Incidentally, at one point when I was collecting the data, it looked like Reggie Smith would end up ranking as the lowest-scoring player ahead of the borderline. Too bad it didn't work out that way--we could have been talking about players surpassing "the Reggie bar.")

One modification I've considered making to the stat would be, for players traded during a season who were above average with one team but below average with another, to only count their above-average stint, in the spirit of only considering a player's positive contributions. For most players, this would make little if any difference, but the sole exception is Cesar Cedeno. Cedeno's career GWAA score is 27.70, which puts him just shy of the Guerrero line, but this includes a score of 0.31 wins above average in 1985. That season, Cedeno was 1.75 wins below average with the Reds, but after being traded to the Cardinals, he was worth 2.06 wins above average (in only 82 PAs) the rest of the way. If we only include his stint with St. Louis, his career score jumps to 29.45, above the borderline.

Our third table is a list of all players, eligible and otherwise, in the post-1957 group above the Guerrero bar. My apologies for presenting some of these players' information in three straight tables, but I think it helps to see how active players stack up against the greats of the past. Hall of Famers are asterisked, players active in 2006 are in bold:


Barry Bonds       123.16
Roger Clemens      71.82
Joe Morgan*        70.17
Greg Maddux        62.61
Mike Piazza        61.07
Frank Thomas       56.38
Alex Rodriguez     55.00
Mike Schmidt*      54.08
George Brett*      53.89
Rickey Henderson   53.43
Tom Seaver*        52.71
Ken Griffey Jr.    52.69
Manny Ramirez      51.96
Randy Johnson      51.65
Gary Sheffield     51.40
Edgar Martinez     50.81
Rod Carew*         50.29
Reggie Jackson*    49.68
Bob Gibson*        48.68
Dick Allen         48.12
Jeff Bagwell       48.12
Wade Boggs*        47.59
Willie McCovey*    47.16
Pedro Martinez     46.91
Barry Larkin       46.58
Cal Ripken Jr.     45.39
Tony Gwynn         44.93
Mark McGwire       44.01
Robin Yount*       43.62
Steve Carlton*     42.88
Paul Molitor*      41.97
Bert Blyleven      41.64
Willie Stargell*   41.63
Chipper Jones      40.78
Jim Palmer*        40.27
Gaylord Perry*     40.18
Pete Rose          39.72
Craig Biggio       39.67
Tom Glavine        38.76
Carl Yastrzemski*  38.44
Joe Torre          38.26
Phil Niekro*       38.14
Jim Edmonds        37.42
Ted Simmons        37.15
Roberto Alomar     36.93
Jim Thome          36.84
Eddie Murray*      36.79
Johnny Bench*      36.44
Kevin Brown        36.41
Albert Pujols      36.13
Jeff Kent          35.83
Carlton Fisk*      35.66
Derek Jeter        35.63
Tim Raines         35.54
Dave Winfield*     35.39
Bernie Williams    35.18
Larry Walker       34.90
Vladimir Guerrero  34.49
Jason Giambi       34.29
Alan Trammell      33.97
Albert Belle       33.91
Curt Schilling     33.68
John Smoltz        33.43
Juan Marichal*     33.42
Lou Whitaker       33.22
Bobby Grich        32.75
Ivan Rodriguez     31.87
Fergie Jenkins*    31.78
Fred McGriff       31.28
Mike Mussina       31.17
Brian Giles        30.75
Sammy Sosa         30.70
Ryne Sandberg*     30.69
Orlando Cepeda*    30.29
Ron Santo          30.15
Frank Howard       29.72
Nolan Ryan*        29.31
Reggie Smith       29.16
Pedro Guerrero     28.73

Unfortunately (at least for the purposes of making this an interesting article), not a single active player moved past the borderline in 2006. The top active player below the line remains Nomar Garciaparra, with a GWAA of 27.44, but that last step is going to be a doozy--with his move to first base, it's going to be much more difficult for him to put up an above-average RCAP.

Here are all the active players below the Guerrero bar with a GWAA greater than 20--a couple young players with a good shot at the Hall, and some older ones who are going to end their careers just shy:


Nomar Garciaparra  27.44
Bobby Abreu        25.86
Julio Franco       25.41
Todd Helton        24.33
Scott Rolen        24.02
Carlos Delgado     24.01
Moises Alou        23.66
Lance Berkman      23.55
Mariano Rivera     21.87
Jorge Posada       20.87

Finally, one last table, the one that's most relevant to the timing of this article: all the players on the 2007 Hall of Fame ballot. In some ways, this is the most interesting list of all--it's fun to see the scores of some of the players who will never get a single Hall vote:


Cal Ripken Jr.   45.39
Tony Gwynn       44.93
Mark McGwire     44.01
Bert Blyleven    41.64
Alan Trammell    33.97
Albert Belle     33.91
Tommy John       28.04
Jim Rice         25.76
Bret Saberhagen  25.21
Dale Murphy      24.98
Andre Dawson     24.80
Bobby Bonilla    24.53
Harold Baines    24.50
Jose Canseco     24.29
Orel Hershiser   24.03
Eric Davis       22.87
Rich Gossage     22.62
Dave Concepcion  21.63
Dave Parker      20.94
Ken Caminiti     20.48
Don Mattingly    19.87
Tony Fernandez   17.23
Jack Morris      17.14
Paul O'Neill     16.69
Steve Garvey     14.52
Lee Smith        14.20
Jay Buhner        9.73
Wally Joyner      6.56
Scott Brosius     5.35
Devon White       4.52
Dante Bichette    3.13
Bobby Witt        2.45

Isn't it nice to have those nasty Hall of Fame debates completely resolved once and for all?

2006-09-12T02:05:00.000-07:00

EXT. - FIELD - DAY

A long shot showing a number of blimps in the sky. As an announcer, BOB PARKER, speaks, corporate logos appear on the screen illustrating his words.

BOB (V.O.): Welcome to ESPN 12's coverage of the International Blimp Racing Finals! Brought to you by New England Tacos: "The Tacos from New England." And by other sponsors.

We cut to a desk sitting in the middle of the field. The blimps continue to fly by in the sky above, and a number of spectators watch from the background. At the desk are Bob and a tweedy-looking man with glasses, MYRON JACOBS.

BOB: (to camera) I'm Bob Parker, and I'd like to welcome you to unincorporated New Hampshire, where the World Cup of blimp racing has just gotten underway. And I'm very pleased to have with me today one of the world's foremost experts on blimp racing, Dr. Myron Jacobs.

Myron acknowledges the camera.

BOB: (to Myron) Dr. Jacobs, what can you tell our viewers about this race?

MYRON: Well, Bob, the pilots of each blimp will attempt to make their blimp go faster than the other blimps in the race. The blimp that reaches the finish line first will be the winner.

BOB: The race has just gotten underway--Dr. Jacobs, what are your thoughts so far?

MYRON: (pointing) Well, from this angle, that green blimp there seems to be ahead of the other blimps. So right now, I would say that that blimp is winning the race. Now, if another blimp were to pass up that green blimp, then that blimp would be winning.

BOB: Uh-huh. The green blimp. Um, why don't you tell us a little about the pilots of that blimp?

MYRON: Bob, the pilots are inside the blimp, operating its controls in some fashion.

BOB: I see. Uh, what are the names of those pilots?

MYRON: I'm afraid I don't have that information about that particular blimp, Bob.

BOB: Um, can you tell us the names of any of the other pilots in the race?

MYRON: Well, there's probably someone named "John" or "Michael" up there. (pause) Those are very common names.

BOB: Right. (pause) How long do these races usually last, Dr. Jacobs?

MYRON: Uh, they last for, um, some time. Until one of the blimps passes the finish line. Then the race would be over. Of course, then the other blimps would still have to pass the finish line. So if you don't consider the race to be over until all the blimps have passed the finish line, then the race would last some amount of time longer than if you thought about it the other way. (pause) It's up for debate, really.

BOB: That long, huh? (chuckling) I wonder what they do if they have to go to the bathroom up there, huh?

MYRON: Well, I would suppose they would urinate in their pants, Bob. That's generally what you do when you really have to urinate and you don't have access to a toilet. (pause) Actually, they might have a toilet up there in the blimp with them. I don't really know. If they did have a toilet, they would probably urinate in that. You know, rather than in their pants.

BOB: Uh-huh. Have you, uh, ever actually ridden in a blimp, Dr. Jacobs?

MYRON: No, Bob, the idea never really occurred to me.

Long pause.

BOB: Uh, here's something that our viewers might be wondering about, Dr. Jacobs: what exactly is the difference between a blimp, a dirigible and a zeppelin?

MYRON: Well, you see, a blimp is a type of airship. And a dirigible and a zeppelin, those are types of airships as well. (pause) They have different names. And possibly other differences as well.

Long pause.

BOB: The, uh, the Hindenburg, that was a zeppelin, right?

MYRON: I'm not familiar with what you're referring to.

BOB: The Hindenburg--it was a, uh, zeppelin. It crashed back in the 1930s. It's very famous.

MYRON: Was it in a race?

BOB: Uh, no, I don't believe so, no.

MYRON: Well, then I wouldn't know it. You see, I'm just an expert on blimp racing. Not on, you know, blimps in general.

BOB: Oh.

A long pause. Bob drums his fingers on the desk.

BOB: Yep. Zeppelin... (pause) Led Zeppelin, they're a good band. You like Led Zeppelin?

MYRON: I'm, uh, not familiar with them.

BOB: They were a very popular band in the '70s.

MYRON: I, uh, I don't believe so, no.

BOB: They had, uh, they had a lot of big hits. Like, uh, "Stairway to Heaven" and, uh...well, what kind of music do you listen to?

MYRON: I don't listen to music. I find that it distracts me from blimp racing.

BOB: Ah.

MYRON: I don't think you could make a zeppelin out of lead, anyway. Because lead's so heavy. I, uh, I don't think it could fly. (pause) I mean, I don't know, but that's what I think.

BOB: So what do they make these blimps out of, anyway?

MYRON: It's a, uh, material of some sort. Probably not lead. Like I said, I think lead would make it too heavy to fly. (pause) Maybe not, though.

BOB: Do the racers use different types of materials, to make their blimps go faster?

MYRON: Uh, quite possibly, yes.

Bob holds his hand up to his earpiece.

BOB: I'm getting word in now--that the race is over! Actually, it...seems to have ended some time ago. Dr. Jacobs, what can you tell us about the winner?

MYRON: Well, the winner would be the blimp that crossed the finish line before the other blimps. I think I explained this already.

BOB: Right. Uh, can you tell us which particular blimp that was?

MYRON: Well, it would be one of the blimps in the race, Bob. (pointing) We can see a number of blimps right now; if we can see it, then it's one of those. Now, if we can't see it, then it's not one of those. It's probably one of the ones we can see, though.

BOB: Well, congratulations to the pilots of that blimp on their victory.

MYRON: Yes, I'm sure they're very proud. It's quite an accomplishment in their field. The field of blimp racing. (pause) It might not be that big of an accomplishment, though. I don't really know.

BOB: What would you say was those pilots' winning strategy?

MYRON: Bob, those pilots won the race by managing to make their blimp go faster than the other blimps in the race.

BOB: Okay. (to camera) That concludes our blimp racing coverage for the day. But stay tuned to ESPN 12 for our coverage of the synchronized ice dancing championships, featuring noted ice dancing expert Dr. Myron Jacobs. For all of us here at ESPN 12, I'm Bob Parker. So long.

FADE TO BLACK.

2006-04-25T01:46:00.000-07:00

It's the eternal question when it comes to evaluating players for the Hall of Fame: peak or career? Are a few years of true greatness worth more than a long, consistent career? One even occasionally hears those who enjoy debating such matters describe themselves as "peak" or "career" guys.

There are many metrics available for gauging the value of a player's career that use a bar of replacement level (like Baseball Prospectus's WARP3) or lower (like Bill James's Win Shares). Yet many, including myself, feel that these statistics give too much weight to a long period of mediocre performance and not enough to a superstar-level peak--in fact, it's fairly common for people to compare players' peak years along with their overall career numbers when using these stats. A stat with a bar of average will give more weight to a great peak, but it will (in my view, unfairly) penalize a player like Rickey Henderson, who stuck around for a number of years after he was no longer a very good player.

There have been several attempts to find some middle ground between peak and career, the most notable probably being Jay Jaffe's JAWS. However, I recently thought of an approach to the question that I haven't seen implemented elsewhere: to use a metric with an average base--and then only include those seasons in which a player was above average.

For this exercise, I didn't use the most sophisticated metrics: I simply calculated Runs Created Above Position (RCAP) for hitters and Runs Saved Above Average (RSAA) for pitchers. (Both park-adjusted, of course.) I then used James's Pythagorean Formula to convert these runs into wins above or below average for the average team each season. Then I added together the win values for each year of a player's career that this value was positive, ignoring the years when it was negative. I christened the resulting career total Net Wins Above Average, or NWAA. It's a pretty colorless name, except for a few potential NWA jokes, so feel free to suggest a better one.

(As an aside, I'm well aware of the flaws of both RCAP and RSAA. Probably RCAP's biggest flaw is that, while it adjusts for position, it does not include defense; it also has that same problems as a run estimator that regular Runs Created does. But they're both easy to calculate and accurate in the broad strokes, and I don't think that anyone has a lot of confidence in any of the available fielding metrics, at least for years before the most recent. Besides, it's more the approach that I'm interested in demonstrating here, rather than the stats themselves. It would be great if someone were to use this methodology with some more sophisticated average-based stats.)

I don't have the league positional averages needed to calculate RCAP for years prior to 1972, so I only calculated NWAA for players whose careers began in or after this year, or for players whose careers began earlier but still had rookie eligibility in 1972, most notably Carlton Fisk and Bobby Grich. (For these players, I did a rough estimate of their wins above average for their cups of coffee prior to 1972; this should have a very small effect on their career stats.)

Of the players in this group, fourteen have been elected to the Hall of Fame:


name              nwaa

Mike Schmidt      54.09
George Brett      53.89
Wade Boggs        47.59
Robin Yount       43.62
Paul Molitor      41.97
Eddie Murray      36.79
Carlton Fisk      35.66
Dave Winfield     35.39
Ryne Sandberg     30.69
Kirby Puckett     28.45
Gary Carter       26.71
Dennis Eckersley  26.13
Ozzie Smith       17.35
Bruce Sutter      14.13

The only thing I'd note here is that the reason Ozzie Smith scores so low is because, as I said, RCAP doesn't include defense, and there are very few players in history who would suffer more from such an omission than Ozzie.

With a stat like this, the question now becomes: where do we draw the line between players who are qualified for the Hall of Fame and those who are not? Since there are really no objective criteria to determine Hall of Fame worthiness, all we have to go on are the players who have already been deemed worthy of the Hall. But if we simply were to let in all the players better than the Hall's weakest member, we'd end up with a Hall far too big by anyone's standards. I like the approach used by the Hall of Merit, where they keep their Hall essentially the same size as the actual Hall of Fame, but fill it with the players they believe to be the most deserving. So, since there are fourteen players in the post-1972 class in the Hall, let's look at the fourteen Hall-eligible players in this group with the highest NWAA scores:


Mike Schmidt    54.09
George Brett    53.89
Wade Boggs      47.59
Robin Yount     43.62
Paul Molitor    41.97
Eddie Murray    36.79
Carlton Fisk    35.66
Dave Winfield   35.39
Alan Trammell   33.97
Albert Belle    33.91
Lou Whitaker    33.22
Bobby Grich     32.76
Ryne Sandberg   30.69
Pedro Guerrero  28.74

(Players not in the Hall of Fame in italics.)

Nine of the fourteen players--as well as the top eight--are the same on both lists (and Kirby Puckett just misses the second). There are some surprising names on this list: Pedro Guerrero, despite being among the most dominant hitters of the 1980s, is rarely thought of as a Hall of Famer: he received only 1.3% of the vote his only time on the ballot. Guerrero's Hall of Fame case is based almost completely on his excellent peak--his career was quite short, with only 6115 plate appearances.

But before deciding that Guerrero's inclusion on the list means that this metric is overrating peak as compared to career value, take a look at the high score for Lou Whitaker. Like Guerrero, Whitaker only lasted a single year on the Hall of Fame ballot, although his candidacy has gained some support in sabermetric circles. Whitaker's career profile is almost the exact opposite of Guerrero's: he gained most of his value from a long, consistent career, but his peak was comparatively quite low--he only cracked the league's top ten in Wins Above Average (WAA) once in his career (a fifth-place finish in 1983). The list has Albert Belle, another player with a dominant peak and short career, but also Carlton Fisk, who played for an extremely long time but only had a couple of really great years. It's a very small sample of players, but from this list it doesn't look to me like the stat is placing too much weight on either peak or career. You can decide for yourself when you've seen a few more lists.

These players represent a very small slice of Hall of Fame history, but, just for now, why don't we think of Pedro Guerrero's 28.74 score as representing the dividing line for Hall of Fame worthiness when it comes to NWAA? Here are all the players in the post-1972 group--including those not yet eligible for the Hall--with NWAA scores through 2005 above the "Guerrero bar": (Players active in 2005 are in bold.)


Barry Bonds        120.27
Roger Clemens       69.27
Greg Maddux         61.70
Mike Piazza         58.90
Frank Thomas        54.17
Mike Schmidt        54.09
George Brett        53.89
Rickey Henderson    53.43
Ken Griffey Jr.     52.55
Randy Johnson       51.61
Gary Sheffield      51.23
Alex Rodriguez      51.20
Edgar Martinez      50.81
Jeff Bagwell        48.12
Wade Boggs          47.59
Manny Ramirez       47.35
Pedro Martinez      46.99
Barry Larkin        46.58
Cal Ripken Jr.      45.39
Tony Gwynn          44.94
Mark McGwire        44.01
Robin Yount         43.62
Paul Molitor        41.97
Craig Biggio        39.67
Tom Glavine         37.60
Chipper Jones       37.06
Roberto Alomar      36.93
Eddie Murray        36.79
Jim Edmonds         36.53
Kevin Brown         36.38
Carlton Fisk        35.66
Tim Raines          35.54
Dave Winfield       35.39
Bernie Williams     35.18
Larry Walker        34.90
Jeff Kent           34.42 
Alan Trammell       33.97
Albert Belle        33.91
Jim Thome           33.26 
Lou Whitaker        33.22
Bobby Grich         32.76
Curt Schilling      32.27
Jason Giambi        31.30 
Fred McGriff        31.28
Ivan Rodriguez      31.21
John Smoltz         31.20
Sammy Sosa          30.70
Ryne Sandberg       30.69
Vladimir Guerrero   30.64
Derek Jeter         30.45
Brian Giles         30.44
Albert Pujols       30.26
Mike Mussina        29.32
Pedro Guerrero      28.74

A few points of interest about this list:

There were thirty-one players active in 2005 above the Guerrero bar. Astoundingly, eight of these players spent the year with the Yankees. (And that doesn't even include Mariano Rivera [19.69 NWAA], who is generally considered a lock for the Hall.) No other 2005 team had more than three players on the list.
The bar will probably be raised higher in coming years, as there are a number of not-yet-eligible players above the line who seem unlikely to be elected to the Hall, and very few below the line who have a good shot at induction. This could represent a flaw with the stat, that it's overrating more recent players--but, even though there have been a handful of historically great performances over the past decade or so, the number of Wins Above Average needed to rank among the league leaders in any given year has essentially remained stable since the 1970s. The other possibility is that the voters are simply becoming more strict. It seems to me that there are only two active players below the Guerrero bar that (based on their statistical records to date) have a really strong possibility of being elected to Cooperstown:

The aforementioned Mariano Rivera: even though relievers fare better on an average-based metric than one with a replacement-level base, they still do not score very highly on RSAA. Applying some sort of leverage index to a reliever's stats might be called for, but I think that in that case one should also adjust for the fact that the average ERA of relievers tends to be significantly lower than that of starters, so I question how much of a difference the adjustment would really make. Also, a great deal of Rivera's Hall of Fame case--perhaps more than any other candidate's in history--rests on his postseason performance, which of course is not accounted for here.
Rafael Palmeiro (26.81 NWAA): his case for the Hall is now in serious jeopardy due to some recent events, the details of which I don't seem to recall, but, even though there was some cursory examination of his credentials around the time of his 3,000th hit, there is little doubt that Palmeiro would have easily sailed into Cooperstown if his statistical record were the only thing in question. Yet his comparatively low NWAA score rather starkly illustrates the shape of his career: he was a pretty good player who played for a very long time (and played most of his best seasons in very good hitters' parks), but who could rarely be thought of as a superstar. Whether this makes him a deserving Hall of Famer is up to you--although it is interesting to note how his overall score stacks up against other career-over-peak guys like Whitaker or Schilling, or even how it compares to Palmeiro's close contemporary, Fred McGriff.

Barry Bonds: damn. It's true that RCAP tends to overrate players with very high OBPs and SLGs, so this list probably overstates Bonds's dominance somewhat, but still--damn. And since I know it will come up, even if you take away everything Bonds did after 1998, he still comes in with an NWAA of 62.84, second only to Clemens on the list. The top five (and six of the top seven) WAA seasons since 1972 are all held by Bonds.

And finally, one last table: it's a little late, but here are the NWAA scores for all the players on the last Hall of Fame ballot. Now, there are four players on the ballot whose careers began prior to 1972: Tommy John (debuted 1963), Steve Garvey (1969), Dave Concepcion (1970), and Bert Blyleven (1970). Neither Garvey or Concepcion were full-time players before 1972, and neither was likely enough above average in those early years to have much of an impact on their overall scores: after three PAs as a pinch-hitter in 1969, Garvey put up OPS+ numbers of 81 and 95 as a third baseman in 1970 and 1971, while Concepcion was at 73 and 43 (!) as a shortstop those same years. As for John and Blyleven, I can calculate their RSAA for their early years, just not their offensive numbers, so that shouldn't make a great deal of difference in their career scores either.

Without further ado, the ballot:

Bert Blyleven    41.88*
Alan Trammell    33.97
Albert Belle     33.91
Tommy John       27.61*
Will Clark       27.38
Jim Rice         25.76
Dale Murphy      24.98
Andre Dawson     24.80
Orel Hershiser   24.03
Rich Gossage     22.62
Dave Concepcion  21.48*
Dave Parker      20.94
Don Mattingly    19.87
Dwight Gooden    18.88
Jack Morris      17.14
Steve Garvey     14.50*
Doug Jones       14.33
Lee Smith        14.20
Bruce Sutter     14.13
Alex Fernandez   12.56
John Wetteland   12.17
Rick Aguilera    11.15
Willie McGee     10.77
Gregg Jefferies   9.36
Gary Gaetti       6.44
Hal Morris        5.96
Gary DiSarcina    1.75
Walt Weiss        1.30
Ozzie Guillen     0.00

(* = estimated. Bold = elected to Hall. Italics = dropped off ballot.)

It's almost enough to make you feel a little sorry for Ozzie.
_____________________________________________

On a personal note, this is my first attempt at a blog--I really only set forth on it so I could have a place to publish this article. Even though I know the key to success in this medium is a consistent content flow, I haven't decided yet if I'm going to update this very often--but, if you arrived here from Baseball Think Factory, you might be familiar with my film-related posts from in the much-endangered Lounge. So, to when your appetite for some more content (if there's any whetting to be done), my top ten film list from 2005 can be found here. Far too late for anyone to care, I'm sure, but it's taken me this long to see all the movies I wanted to see.

And if you've made it this far, thanks for reading.