GWAA - 2006 Update

Well, it's December once more. The time of year when, as the days grow shorter and the weather grows colder, the thoughts of even the most hard-hearted among us turn to one thing: mostly pointless, vaguely self-indulgent baseball stats calculated out to several decimal places in order to give an illusory impression of precision. Naturally, I'm being facetious: every time of the year is a time when people's thoughts turn to mostly pointless, vaguely self-indulgent baseball stats calculated out to several decimal places in order to give an illusory impression of precision.

But December is the time when these stats get applied to Hall of Fame debates. As such, I thought it was time to bring out an update to the Gross Wins Above Average (GWAA) stat I introduced in this article in April. Though the full methodology and reasoning behind the stat can be found in the link, basically GWAA (nee NWAA) involves calculating the RCAP (Runs Created Above Position) for hitters and RSAA (Runs Saved Above Average) for pitchers for each season in a player's career, converting this to wins above and below average, and then only counting the above-average seasons. I think this gives a better picture of a player's total value, peak and career, than average- or replacement-level based stats. There are a few problems with the stats used, most notably that, while they adjust for position, they don't include defense, as I have little faith in defensive stats from before the last few years, but I still think the results are worth taking a look at.

For my last article, I only had the stats available to calculate RCAP back to 1972. Fortunately, thanks to Baseball Prospectus and Retrosheet, I now have the data going back to 1957. There are thirty-eight Hall of Famers who either debuted in 1957 or later, or had no more than 130 AB or 50 IP prior to 1957. Here are the GWAA scores for each:

name              gwaa

Joe Morgan        70.17
Mike Schmidt      54.08
George Brett      53.89
Tom Seaver        52.71
Rod Carew         50.29
Reggie Jackson    49.68
Bob Gibson        48.68
Wade Boggs        47.59
Willie McCovey    47.16
Robin Yount       43.62
Steve Carlton     42.88
Paul Molitor      41.97
Willie Stargell   41.63
Jim Palmer        40.27
Gaylord Perry     40.18
Carl Yastrzemski  38.44
Phil Niekro       38.14
Eddie Murray      36.79
Johnny Bench      36.44
Carlton Fisk      35.66
Dave Winfield     35.39
Juan Marichal     33.42
Fergie Jenkins    31.78
Ryne Sandberg     30.69
Orlando Cepeda    30.29
Nolan Ryan        29.31
Kirby Puckett     28.45
Gary Carter       26.71
Billy Williams    26.40
Dennis Eckersley  26.13
Don Sutton        25.05
Tony Perez        23.83
Brooks Robinson   21.38
Catfish Hunter    18.50
Ozzie Smith       17.35
Rollie Fingers    15.91
Bruce Sutter      14.13
Lou Brock         10.69

Joe Morgan really should never have invented this stat.

Now, let's compare the thirty-eight Hall-eligible players in the post-1957 group with the highest GWAA scores, to see who might have been the most qualified candidates to fill those slots while keeping the overall size of the Hall the same. Non-Hall of Famers are in italics:

Joe Morgan        70.17
Mike Schmidt      54.08
George Brett      53.89
Tom Seaver        52.71
Rod Carew         50.29
Reggie Jackson    49.68
Bob Gibson        48.68
Dick Allen        48.12
Wade Boggs        47.59
Willie McCovey    47.16
Robin Yount       43.62
Steve Carlton     42.88
Paul Molitor      41.97
Bert Blyleven     41.64
Willie Stargell   41.63
Jim Palmer        40.27
Gaylord Perry     40.18
Carl Yastrzemski  38.44
Joe Torre         38.26
Phil Niekro       38.14
Ted Simmons       37.15
Eddie Murray      36.79
Johnny Bench      36.44
Carlton Fisk      35.66
Dave Winfield     35.39
Alan Trammell     33.97
Albert Belle      33.91
Juan Marichal     33.42
Lou Whitaker      33.22
Bobby Grich       32.75
Fergie Jenkins    31.78
Ryne Sandberg     30.69
Orlando Cepeda    30.29
Ron Santo         30.15
Frank Howard      29.72
Nolan Ryan        29.31
Reggie Smith      29.16
Pedro Guerrero    28.73

The Guerrero bar lives! In the previous article, Pedro Guerrero had the fourteenth-highest GWAA score among Hall-eligible players debuting since 1972, a class that included fourteen Hall of Famers. He also has the thirty-eighth highest score among eligible players debuting since 1957, a class that includes thirty-eight Hall of Famers. While in actuality, Guerrero's poor defense would probably knock him out of Hall of Fame consideration, I think this result provides further justification for 28-29 GWAA being a reasonable place to set the borderline for deserving Hall of Famers. (Incidentally, at one point when I was collecting the data, it looked like Reggie Smith would end up ranking as the lowest-scoring player ahead of the borderline. Too bad it didn't work out that way--we could have been talking about players surpassing "the Reggie bar.")

One modification I've considered making to the stat would be, for players traded during a season who were above average with one team but below average with another, to only count their above-average stint, in the spirit of only considering a player's positive contributions. For most players, this would make little if any difference, but the sole exception is Cesar Cedeno. Cedeno's career GWAA score is 27.70, which puts him just shy of the Guerrero line, but this includes a score of 0.31 wins above average in 1985. That season, Cedeno was 1.75 wins below average with the Reds, but after being traded to the Cardinals, he was worth 2.06 wins above average (in only 82 PAs) the rest of the way. If we only include his stint with St. Louis, his career score jumps to 29.45, above the borderline.

Our third table is a list of all players, eligible and otherwise, in the post-1957 group above the Guerrero bar. My apologies for presenting some of these players' information in three straight tables, but I think it helps to see how active players stack up against the greats of the past. Hall of Famers are asterisked, players active in 2006 are in bold:

Barry Bonds       123.16
Roger Clemens      71.82
Joe Morgan*        70.17
Greg Maddux        62.61
Mike Piazza        61.07
Frank Thomas       56.38
Alex Rodriguez     55.00
Mike Schmidt*      54.08
George Brett*      53.89
Rickey Henderson   53.43
Tom Seaver*        52.71
Ken Griffey Jr.    52.69
Manny Ramirez      51.96
Randy Johnson      51.65
Gary Sheffield     51.40
Edgar Martinez     50.81
Rod Carew*         50.29
Reggie Jackson*    49.68
Bob Gibson*        48.68
Dick Allen         48.12
Jeff Bagwell       48.12
Wade Boggs*        47.59
Willie McCovey*    47.16
Pedro Martinez     46.91
Barry Larkin       46.58
Cal Ripken Jr.     45.39
Tony Gwynn         44.93
Mark McGwire       44.01
Robin Yount*       43.62
Steve Carlton*     42.88
Paul Molitor*      41.97
Bert Blyleven      41.64
Willie Stargell*   41.63
Chipper Jones      40.78
Jim Palmer*        40.27
Gaylord Perry*     40.18
Pete Rose          39.72
Craig Biggio       39.67
Tom Glavine        38.76
Carl Yastrzemski*  38.44
Joe Torre          38.26
Phil Niekro*       38.14
Jim Edmonds        37.42
Ted Simmons        37.15
Roberto Alomar     36.93
Jim Thome          36.84
Eddie Murray*      36.79
Johnny Bench*      36.44
Kevin Brown        36.41
Albert Pujols      36.13
Jeff Kent          35.83
Carlton Fisk*      35.66
Derek Jeter        35.63
Tim Raines         35.54
Dave Winfield*     35.39
Bernie Williams    35.18
Larry Walker       34.90
Vladimir Guerrero  34.49
Jason Giambi       34.29
Alan Trammell      33.97
Albert Belle       33.91
Curt Schilling     33.68
John Smoltz        33.43
Juan Marichal*     33.42
Lou Whitaker       33.22
Bobby Grich        32.75
Ivan Rodriguez     31.87
Fergie Jenkins*    31.78
Fred McGriff       31.28
Mike Mussina       31.17
Brian Giles        30.75
Sammy Sosa         30.70
Ryne Sandberg*     30.69
Orlando Cepeda*    30.29
Ron Santo          30.15
Frank Howard       29.72
Nolan Ryan*        29.31
Reggie Smith       29.16
Pedro Guerrero     28.73

Unfortunately (at least for the purposes of making this an interesting article), not a single active player moved past the borderline in 2006. The top active player below the line remains Nomar Garciaparra, with a GWAA of 27.44, but that last step is going to be a doozy--with his move to first base, it's going to be much more difficult for him to put up an above-average RCAP.

Here are all the active players below the Guerrero bar with a GWAA greater than 20--a couple young players with a good shot at the Hall, and some older ones who are going to end their careers just shy:

Nomar Garciaparra  27.44
Bobby Abreu        25.86
Julio Franco       25.41
Todd Helton        24.33
Scott Rolen        24.02
Carlos Delgado     24.01
Moises Alou        23.66
Lance Berkman      23.55
Mariano Rivera     21.87
Jorge Posada       20.87

Finally, one last table, the one that's most relevant to the timing of this article: all the players on the 2007 Hall of Fame ballot. In some ways, this is the most interesting list of all--it's fun to see the scores of some of the players who will never get a single Hall vote:

Cal Ripken Jr.   45.39
Tony Gwynn       44.93
Mark McGwire     44.01
Bert Blyleven    41.64
Alan Trammell    33.97
Albert Belle     33.91
Tommy John       28.04
Jim Rice         25.76
Bret Saberhagen  25.21
Dale Murphy      24.98
Andre Dawson     24.80
Bobby Bonilla    24.53
Harold Baines    24.50
Jose Canseco     24.29
Orel Hershiser   24.03
Eric Davis       22.87
Rich Gossage     22.62
Dave Concepcion  21.63
Dave Parker      20.94
Ken Caminiti     20.48
Don Mattingly    19.87
Tony Fernandez   17.23
Jack Morris      17.14
Paul O'Neill     16.69
Steve Garvey     14.52
Lee Smith        14.20
Jay Buhner        9.73
Wally Joyner      6.56
Scott Brosius     5.35
Devon White       4.52
Dante Bichette    3.13
Bobby Witt        2.45

Isn't it nice to have those nasty Hall of Fame debates completely resolved once and for all?