Marcel projected "SLWTS"

So it's time to go where many men have gone before: with a projection system for 2007. This one, however, isn't really my own invention, but rather a combination of several systems developed by other, much smarter people.

The basis of these projections is the Marcel projection system developed by Tango Tiger. Intended as minimum standard any projection system ought to reach, Marcel projections use a weighted, regressed, age-adjusted average of a player's MLB performance the last three years. There have been several systems developed that have been shown to be more effective than Marcels, but none by more than a few percentage points--and, in the projections below, I've corrected for one of the major shortcomings of Marcels by adjusting for park effects. With this change, I suspect that the reliability of this system may well vault into the midst of the other superior projection systems. While there are several other flaws of Marcels (a big one being the lack of minor league data), I do like them because, since they're solely based on past performance, they seem less...speculative than other systems. At the very least they do an exceptional job showing who's been the best the past three years, with a bonus for younger players.

I put together the projections here in a similar fashion to the fine work done by Matt Rauseo on his "Poor Man's Super Linear Weights." I started with each player's Marcel projection for Runs Created Above Average (per 150 games) for 2007. I then adjusted for position (the positional adjustments, too, are based on a weighted average of positional average performance the last three years), and then added in the defensive projections for 2007 developed by Chone Smith, to get an overall projection in runs above average per 150 games. I didn't include non-SB baserunning, in part because I didn't know where to get reliable projections, but also because in any given year hardly any players are more than five runs above or below average in baserunning: with regression, it's unlikely that baserunning would change a player's overall projection by more than a run or two.

Now, if you look at the projections per 150 games, you'll see that Travis Hafner is tied for the highest projection, at +53 runs. (More on that later.) One of the reasons Hafner hasn't been thought of as the best player in the AL is because he's been rather injury-prone over the past three years. Carlos Guillen has a better per-150 projection than Derek Jeter or Miguel Tejada, but Guillen's missed a lot more playing time than the latter two. So, while this may not be sabermetrically sanctioned, I included one further adjustment next to the per-150 projections: a durability adjustment, based on a weighted, age-adjusted average of a player's PAs the last three years. Durability is nearly impossible to predict, of course--Miguel Tejada might blow out his ACL on opening day--but I think it's safe to assume that Barry Bonds, for example, won't be playing 160 games. This durability adjustment might also be unfair to players who haven't been in the majors for all of the last three seasons, but for these players, as well as ones who've suffered from injuries, the adjustment sort of acts as an extra level of regression, since their projections are based on a smaller sample. I think it's even more useful for players at the bottom of the chart: there are lots of awful players who have never been given much of a chance, but at the bottom of the table you'll see the worst players who have been allowed to suck up a lot of playing time the last few years.

One further caveat about the defensive numbers--there are three groups of players who don't have defensive projections listed:

1) Designated hitters. While DHs are adjusted here against the average hitter at their position, there's no further "DH penalty" added. (This would be the other reason that Hafner's not considered the best player in the AL.) Since there's no agreement on how big this penalty ought to be, I decided it was best to just present the raw data and allow people to make their own adjustments.

2) Catchers. Chone doesn't list defensive projections for them. Keep that in mind when you see Victor Martinez's projection.

3) Each player is projected at the position where they played the most games in 2006. Some players haven't played enough games at those positions to show up on Chone's chart.

Finally, the numbers. I think these shed a little light on some of the free agent signings this offseason:

name               rcaa   pos  def  p150 PAs   dur

Albert Pujols         65  -13    1   53  679   58
Travis Hafner         57   -4    -   53  569   48
David Ortiz           43   -4    -   39  685   43
Vladimir Guerrero     45   -5   -3   37  641   38
Miguel Cabrera        45   -3   -8   34  702   38
Miguel Tejada         25   10   -2   33  707   38
Derek Jeter           25   10   -3   32  720   37
Alex Rodriguez        39   -3   -5   31  687   34
Victor Martinez       21   12    -   33  627   33
Carlos Beltran        23    4    5   32  649   33
Chase Utley           20    7    8   35  589   33
Carlos Guillen        28   10    0   38  521   32
Joe Mauer             26   12    -   38  483   30
Barry Bonds           61   -7   -5   49  361   28
Jason Bay             31   -7    3   27  641   28
Grady Sizemore        23    4    2   29  602   28
Jim Edmonds           26    4    4   34  500   27
Lance Berkman         44  -13   -5   26  625   26
Michael Young         15   10   -3   22  736   26
Chipper Jones         32   -3    2   31  476   24
Adrian Beltre         14   -3   10   21  669   22
Jorge Posada          14   12    -   26  534   22
Manny Ramirez         44   -7  -14   23  604   22
Brian Roberts          9    7    5   21  657   22
Brian Giles           18   -5    6   19  686   21
Scott Rolen           22   -3    8   27  466   21
J.D. Drew             28   -5    1   24  508   20
Jeff Kent             19    7   -4   22  544   19
Ichiro Suzuki         21   -5    0   16  739   19
Carl Crawford         14   -7   10   17  681   18
David Wright          30   -3   -8   19  579   18
Jason Giambi          27   -4    -   23  493   18
Bobby Abreu           25   -5   -4   16  695   18
Ryan Howard           43  -13   -4   26  422   17
Brian McCann          26   12    -   38  283   17
Johnny Damon          15    4   -3   16  674   17
Jim Thome             26   -4    -   22  478   17
Jermaine Dye          22   -5    1   18  588   17
Ivan Rodriguez         7   12    -   19  549   17
Todd Helton           28  -13    1   16  640   17
Mark Teixeira         24  -13    3   14  711   16
Vernon Wells          10    4    1   15  656   16
Ramon Hernandez        9   12    -   21  469   16
Robinson Cano         17    7    0   24  405   16
Mike Cameron          10    4    5   19  511   15
Derrek Lee            34  -13   -1   20  483   15
Jimmy Rollins          4   10   -1   13  741   15
Michael Barrett        8   12    -   20  457   15
Placido Polanco        1    7   10   18  524   15
Ray Durham            13    7   -3   17  542   15
Torii Hunter           6    4    7   17  531   15
Carlos Delgado        29  -13   -1   15  590   14
Andruw Jones          16    4   -7   13  662   14
Mike Piazza            7   12    -   19  448   14
Aramis Ramirez        25   -3   -7   15  595   14
Jose Reyes             4   10    0   14  612   14
Jason Varitek          5   12    -   17  478   13
Matt Holliday         20   -7    1   14  570   13
Bill Hall              7   10   -3   14  542   12
Julio Lugo             1   10    2   13  591   12
Moises Alou           25   -5   -5   15  471   11
Morgan Ensberg        14   -3    3   14  523   11
Jhonny Peralta         4   10    1   15  471   11
Paul Lo Duca           1   12    -   13  534   11
Mark Ellis             1    7   11   19  369   11
Nick Johnson          26  -13    0   13  518   11
Rafael Furcal          4   10   -4   10  692   11
Raul Ibanez           15   -7    2   10  641   11
Frank Thomas          23   -4    -   19  341   11
Garrett Atkins        17   -3   -1   13  492   10
Omar Vizquel          -7   10    7   10  633   10
Khalil Greene         -1   10    3   12  492   10
Eric Chavez            7   -3    6   10  614    9
Aaron Hill            -7    7   14   14  397    9
Luis Castillo         -2    7    4    9  603    9
Gary Matthews          6    4    0   10  536    9
Melvin Mora           12   -3   -1    8  662    8
Freddy Sanchez         8   -3    7   12  431    8
Mark Loretta           2    7   -1    8  611    8
Alfonso Soriano       13   -7    1    7  691    8
Mark Grudzielanek     -7    7   10   10  489    8
Bengie Molina         -1   12    -   11  426    8
Gary Sheffield        23   -5   -8   10  451    7
Aaron Rowand          -1    4    5    8  531    7
Edgar Renteria        -2   10   -2    6  666    7
Paul Konerko          24  -13   -5    6  646    6
Kenji Johjima          5   12    -   17  224    6
Bobby Crosby         -11   10    9    8  451    6
Hanley Ramirez        15   10  -12   13  301    6
Jose Valentin         -8    7   11   10  357    6
Milton Bradley        10   -5    4    9  423    6
Hideki Matsui         24   -7   -9    8  482    6
Tadahito Iguchi       -1    7    2    8  449    6
Marcus Giles           2    7   -3    6  587    6
Jason Kendall         -7   12    -    5  643    5
Johnny Estrada        -5   12    -    7  439    5
Eric Byrnes           -4    4    6    6  559    5
Mike Sweeney          12   -4    -    8  401    5
Jason Bartlett        -6   10    9   13  244    5
Gregg Zaun            -4   12    -    8  401    5
Curtis Granderson     -2    4    7    9  354    5
Juan Rivera           15   -7    1    7  438    5
Dan Uggla              6    7   -3   10  288    5
Pat Burrell           13   -7   -1    5  589    5
Rocco Baldelli         9    4   -4    9  308    5
Justin Morneau        16  -13    2    5  544    4
Geoff Jenkins         10   -5    0    5  600    4
Ryan Zimmerman        11   -3    0    8  316    4
Brandon Inge          -3   -3   10    4  594    4
Adam Kennedy          -4    7    2    5  493    4
A.J. Pierzynski       -7   12    -    5  516    4
Orlando Hudson        -4    7    1    4  574    4
Mike Lieberthal       -5   12    -    7  369    4
Matt LeCroy           -1   12    -   11  220    4
Russell Martin         0   12    -   12  201    4
Ronny Paulino         -1   12    -   11  206    4
Adam Dunn             18    7   -8    3  683    4
Marlon Anderson       -3    7    4    8  281    4
Mike Napoli            3   12    -   15  138    3
Lyle Overbay          17   -3   -1    3  639    3
Tony Graffanino       -3    7    1    5  382    3
Todd Walker            1    7   -4    4  453    3
Corey Koskie           1   -3    7    5  371    3
Mike Lowell            2   -3    4    3  609    3
Kenny Lofton           4    4   -3    5  417    3
Mike Redmond          -3   12    -    9  196    3
Emil Brown             5   -7    6    4  448    3
David Eckstein       -10   10    3    3  621    3
Dave Roberts           5   -7    5    3  480    3
Ronnie Belliard       -1    7   -3    3  602    3
Juan Uribe           -16   10    9    3  528    3
Chris Duffy           -4    4    8    8  193    3
Jason LaRue           -8   12    -    4  344    2
Carlos Lee            15   -7   -6    2  679    2
Jack Wilson          -13   10    5    2  632    2
Craig Biggio          -4    7   -1    2  620    2
Josh Barfield         -2    7    0    5  247    2
Jose Guillen           5   -5    3    3  468    2
Casey Blake            6   -5    1    2  543    2
David Ross            -6   12    -    6  216    2
Orlando Cabrera       -8   10    0    2  637    2
Damian Miller         -9   12    -    3  400    2
Matt Lawton           -1    4    -    3  369    2
Michael Cuddyer        7   -5    0    2  520    2
Magglio Ordonez        9   -5   -1    3  434    2
Corey Patterson      -12    4   10    2  543    2
Chris Burke           -9    7    6    4  300    2
Randy Winn             4   -5    3    2  660    2
Ian Kinsler            1    7   -3    5  202    2
Eliezer Alfonzo       -5   12    -    7  130    1
Darin Erstad          -7    4    5    2  396    1
Matt Murton            7   -7    2    2  270    1
Nick Markakis          5   -5    3    3  233    1
Adam Everett         -24   10   15    1  541    1
Jamey Carroll        -11    7    5    1  401    1
Chad Tracy             5   -3   -1    1  600    1
Rich Aurilia           0   -3    4    1  459    1
Troy Glaus            13   -3   -9    1  533    1
Ryan Freel            -3    4    0    1  507    1
Chris Shelton         10  -13    4    1  333    1
Brady Clark           -4    4    1    1  522    1
Jose Vidro             3    7   -9    1  440    1
Alexis Rios           -1   -5    7    1  504    0
Marcus Thames          6   -7    2    1  247    0
Adrian Gonzalez       12  -13    1    0  336    0
Brandon Phillips     -10    7    3    0  258    0
Jay Gibbons            4   -4    -    0  424    0
Brian Schneider      -12   12    -    0  445    0
J.J. Hardy           -12   10    1   -1  205    0
Wes Helms             12  -13    -   -1  253    0
Austin Kearns          0   -5    5    0  479    0
Cliff Floyd            7   -7    0    0  471    0
Jeff DaVanon          -3    4   -2   -1  277    0
Josh Willingham       12   -7   -6   -1  257    0
David DeJesus          3   -7    3   -1  511   -1
D'Angelo Jimenez      -7    7   -1   -1  239   -1
Andre Ethier           7   -7   -2   -2  188   -1
Sean Casey             9  -13    3   -1  531   -1
Alex Gonzalez        -17   10    6   -1  486   -1
Richie Sexson         18  -13   -6   -1  515   -1
David Dellucci         9   -7   -3   -1  389   -1
Bill Mueller           4   -3   -2   -1  357   -1
Nomar Garciaparra     11  -13    1   -1  383   -1
Nook Logan           -11    4    5   -2  199   -1
Dmitri Young           2   -4    -   -2  349   -1
Jeff Cirillo           0   -3    0   -3  208   -1
Juan Pierre           -6    4    1   -1  737   -1
Reggie Sanders        -1   -5    4   -2  368   -1
Rod Barajas          -14   12    -   -2  398   -1
Javy Lopez             2   -4    -   -2  441   -1
Jose Lopez           -11    7    2   -2  407   -1
Oscar Robles         -12    7    -   -5  148   -1
Jeremy Hermida        -4   -5    4   -5  166   -1
Robert Fick          -16   12    -   -4  206   -1
Xavier Nady            2   -5    0   -3  353   -2
Marco Scutaro        -10   10   -2   -2  433   -2
Miguel Olivo         -15   12    -   -3  364   -2
Chone Figgins         -1    4   -5   -2  684   -2
Alex Cora            -18   10    5   -3  319   -2
Jonny Gomes            1   -4    -   -3  335   -2
Reed Johnson           2   -7    3   -2  504   -2
Ken Griffey           11    4  -17   -2  456   -2
Yorvit Torrealba     -17   12    -   -5  224   -2
Dustan Mohr          -10    4    -   -6  195   -2
Wilson Betemit        -2   -3    1   -4  281   -2
Mike Jacobs           10  -13    2   -5  257   -2
Matt Stairs            1   -4    -   -3  430   -2
Felipe Lopez          -2   10  -10   -2  594   -2
Joe Randa             -2   -3    2   -3  421   -2
Aubrey Huff            5   -3   -4   -2  591   -2
David Newhan         -10    4    -   -6  242   -2
Chris Snyder         -18  -12    -   -6  245   -2
Coco Crisp             2    4   -9   -3  545   -2
Juan Encarnacion      -3   -5    5   -3  566   -2
Ryan Langerhans       -7   -7    8   -6  281   -2
Tony Clark             8  -13   -1   -6  258   -3
Phil Nevin             1   -4    -   -3  471   -3
Toby Hall            -16   12    -   -4  384   -3
Reggie Abercrombie   -23    4    3  -16  118   -3
Adam LaRoche          10  -13   -1   -4  384   -3
Kendry Morales       -12  -13    3  -22   92   -3
Geoff Blum           -22  -10    6   -6  329   -3
Tony Womack          -14    7    0   -7  294   -3
Kazuo Matsui         -13    7    0   -6  333   -3
Miguel Cairo         -17    7    3   -7  322   -3
Jeremy Reed          -15    4    4   -7  299   -3
Sean Burroughs        -9   -3    4   -8  260   -3
J.T. Snow              5  -13   -1   -9  255   -4
John Buck            -18   12    -   -6  383   -4
Shawn Green            3   -5   -2   -4  620   -4
Joe Crede             -5   -3    4   -4  537   -4
Henry Blanco         -21   12    -   -9  251   -4
Mark Bellhorn        -12   -3    9   -6  389   -4
Mark Kotsay           -2    4   -6   -4  605   -4
Omar Infante         -12    7   -1   -6  393   -4
Yuniesky Betancourt  -10   10   -7   -7  327   -4
Rondell White         -2   -4    -   -6  398   -4
Craig Counsell       -17   10    2   -5  520   -4
Jason Phillips       -22   12    -  -10  267   -4
Gary Bennett         -26   12    -  -14  205   -4
Scott Spiezio         -6   -3   -2  -11  250   -5
Daryle Ward           -1   -9    0  -10  291   -5
Brad Hawpe             4   -5   -6   -7  388   -5
Terrence Long         -8   -5    1  -12  256   -5
John McDonald        -26   10    1  -15  203   -5
Ben Broussard          9  -13   -2   -6  480   -5
Laynce Nix           -21    4    2  -15  212   -5
Ramon Martinez       -17    7   -6  -16  194   -5
Mike Matheny         -22   12    -  -10  332   -5
Jacque Jones          -1   -5    1   -5  582   -5
Edwin Encarnacion     -2   -3   -7  -12  279   -5
Chris Woodward       -21    7    -  -14  226   -5
Carlos Pena            4  -13   -4  -13  254   -5
Melky Cabrera         -2   -7   -6  -15  233   -5
Mark DeRosa           -5   -5    1   -9  376   -5
Maicer Izturis        -4   -3   -6  -13  270   -5
Trot Nixon            -2   -5   -6   -9  383   -5
Bobby Kielty          -5   -7    2  -10  336   -6
Rickie Weeks          -3    7  -15  -11  318   -6
Brian N. Anderson    -24    4    1  -19  185   -6
Jose Cruz             -2   -7    -   -9  389   -6
Nick Punto           -13   -3    7   -9  413   -6
Larry Bigbie         -10   -7    2  -15  245   -6
Frank Catalanotto      4   -7   -6   -9  430   -6
Chad Moeller         -31   12    -  -19  201   -6
Prince Fielder         5  -13   -5  -13  301   -6
Nick Swisher           7  -13   -2   -8  477   -6
Alex (S.) Gonzalez   -16   -2    0  -18  216   -6
Endy Chavez           -7   -5    -  -12  343   -6
Craig Monroe           1   -7   -1   -7  570   -6
Pedro Feliz          -14   -3   10   -7  601   -7
Chris Gomez           -5  -13    -  -18  233   -7
Todd Hollandsworth   -12   -5    -  -17  246   -7
Jose Hernandez        -7  -13    -  -20  208   -7
Craig Wilson           4  -13   -2  -11  402   -7
Eric Young           -12   -7   -1  -20  214   -7
Cory Sullivan        -15    4   -2  -13  328   -7
Michael Tucker       -10   -7    -  -17  264   -7
Kevin Youkilis         2  -13   -1  -12  379   -7
Lew Ford              -6   -7    3  -10  465   -7
Conor Jackson         -3  -13   -1  -17  271   -7
Jason Michaels        -5   -7    1  -11  427   -7
Rob Mackowiak         -6    4   -9  -11  428   -7
Brad Wilkerson         0   -7   -2   -9  543   -7
Luis A. Gonzalez     -15    7   -7  -15  302   -8
Juan Castro          -22   10   -5  -17  281   -8
Nick Green           -20    7   -6  -19  250   -8
Ty Wigginton           1  -13    -  -12  395   -8
So Taguchi            -9   -7    2  -14  334   -8
Luis Gonzalez          3   -7   -4   -8  595   -8
Ronny Cedeno         -29   10    1  -18  276   -8
Dan Johnson           -4  -13    0  -17  284   -8
Damon Hollins        -15   -5    2  -18  273   -8
Mark Teahen            1   -3  -12  -14  353   -8
Alex Cintron         -17   10   -5  -12  396   -8
Steve Finley         -11    4   -3  -10  503   -8
Jeff Francoeur        -4   -5   -4  -13  391   -8
Marlon Byrd          -20    4   -3  -19  275   -8
Eric Hinske           -6   -5    -  -11  466   -8
Garret Anderson        1   -7   -3   -9  555   -8
Russ Adams           -17    7   -7  -17  322   -9
Shannon Stewart       -3   -7   -4  -14  382   -9
Willy Taveras        -16    4    0  -12  465   -9
Kevin Millar           5  -13   -3  -11  518   -9
Joey Gathright       -23    4   -2  -21  277   -9
Yadier Molina        -28   12    -  -16  379  -10
Vinny Castilla       -13   -3    2  -14  451  -10
Aaron Boone          -14   -3   -1  -18  346  -10
Jorge Cantu           -3    7  -18  -14  454  -10
Jeromy Burnitz        -6   -5   -2  -13  504  -10
John Mabry           -14  -13    1  -26  253  -11
Clint Barmes         -28   10    0  -18  370  -11
Luis Matos           -16   -7    -  -23  296  -11
Travis Lee           -11  -13    2  -22  311  -11
Edgardo Alfonzo      -15   -3   -4  -22  313  -11
Brad Ausmus          -27   12    -  -15  459  -11
Doug Mientkiewicz    -11  -13    5  -19  362  -11
Aaron Miles          -22    7   -1  -16  451  -12
Carl Everett         -14   -4    -  -18  394  -12
Kevin Mench           -2   -5   -7  -14  526  -12
Neifi Perez          -27    7    3  -17  433  -12
Jeff Conine           -2  -13    0  -15  479  -12
David Bell           -11   -3    1  -13  582  -12
Jason Lane            -4   -5  -11  -20  368  -12
Bernie Williams       -4   -5   -7  -16  521  -13
Jay Payton            -5   -7   -4  -16  508  -13
Scott Hatteberg       -4  -13    1  -16  543  -14
Shea Hillenbrand       2  -13   -3  -14  596  -14
Hank Blalock          -6   -3   -4  -13  691  -14
Cesar Izturis        -19   -3    -  -22  433  -15
Abraham Nunez        -25   -3   -1  -29  356  -16
Royce Clayton        -22   10   -7  -19  550  -17
Scott Podsednik      -15   -7    3  -19  610  -18
Jose Castillo        -18    7  -13  -24  479  -18
Preston Wilson        -9   -7  -10  -26  466  -19
Angel Berroa         -24   10   -8  -22  565  -20

name = number of steroids taken by a player the last three years. Dah, I mean, their names

rcaa = Marcel projection for Runs Created Above Average per 150 games (623 PAs)

pos = positional adjustment, based on the projected RCAA for an average hitter at the position per 150 games

def = Chone Smith's defensive projections

p150 = total projected runs above average per 150 games

PAs = projected PAs for 2007

dur = total runs above average per projected PAs