Marcel & Chone...no, not a new sitcom: 2008 offense + defense projections

With the offseason in full swing, I thought it was time for an update of my article from last year, combining offensive projections based on the Marcel system developed by Tango Tiger with the defensive projections of Chone Smith, aka AROM. The full methodology can be found in the previous article, but here's a quick recap of what each of the columns represent:

rcaa = The projected Runs Created Above Average* per 150 games (actually, 631 PAs) for each player in 2008, based on a weighted, regressed, age-adjusted three-year average. The numbers are park-adjusted and include SB/CS.

pos = Positional adjustment, also based on a three-year weighted average of the MLB mean at each position. Each player is projected at the position where they played the most games in 2007. At Tango Tiger's suggestion, I've also applied a "DH penalty" this year: the average DH is usually about +5 RCAA per 150 games, but that clearly doesn't reflect the offensive level of the average player a team should be able to find without taking defense into consideration at all, as it's worse than the average first baseman or corner outfielder. Also, the DH usually has a further negative impact by forcing the team to play an inferior defensive player, who could otherwise take the DH slot were their current DH able to play the field. I'm not sure there's a right answer to how to adjust for all this, but after playing with the numbers a little, I settled on 19 runs/150 games as my estimate of the overall DH impact.

def = AROM's projected defensive runs above/below average. Note that I don't have projections available for catchers, so all of them are given a defensive rating of 0.

p150 = The sum of the first three columns, representing a player's overall projection compared to average per 150 games.

PAs / dur = Durability is virtually impossible to predict, but I didn't want to ignore it entirely: for instance, catchers and older, injury-prone players (see Barry Bonds, even pre-indictment) really shouldn't be projected to play the same number of games as others. So I gave each player a projected number of plate appearances, based on a weighted, age-adjusted three-year average, and adjusted their per-150 game projection against that number. (For top-of-the-order hitters like Sizemore or Reyes, their defensive projection isn't prorated to the same degree as their offensive numbers, as, even though they'll have more PAs than other players with the same number of games played, they won't have any more defensive innings.) This negatively impacts players who've spent time in the minors the last few seasons, but, since their projections are based on a smaller sample of PAs, those projections are therefore less reliable, and the playing time adjustment acts as something of an extra level of regression.

Non-SB baserunning is not included, but, especially with regression, that likely wouldn't change any player's projection by more than a run or two. Also, no adjustment has been made for any difference in quality between the two leagues.

And now, the numbers:

name              rcaa  pos  def  p150 PAs  dur

Albert Pujols       58  -12    9   55  673   58
Chase Utley         30    6   14   50  657   52
Alex Rodriguez      49   -2   -5   42  690   46
David Wright        39   -2    2   39  693   43
Chipper Jones       49   -2    5   52  506   42
Grady Sizemore      21    4   10   35  752   40
Matt Holliday       34   -6   10   38  655   40
Miguel Cabrera      47   -2  -10   35  696   39
Victor Martinez     21   13    -   34  640   34
Carlos Beltran      21    4    9   34  629   34
Curtis Granderson   15    4   19   38  558   33
Jorge Posada        25   13    -   38  550   33
David Ortiz         49  -19    -   30  677   32
Joe Mauer           24   13    -   37  550   32
Vladimir Guerrero   40   -6   -5   29  639   29
Miguel Tejada       19    9    0   28  643   29
Ichiro Suzuki       19    4    1   24  729   28
Magglio Ordonez     33   -6    1   28  575   26
Carl Crawford       19   -6   11   24  657   25
Jose Reyes           7    9    6   22  754   25
Jimmy Rollins       10    9    2   21  758   25
Mark Teixeira       32  -12    3   23  668   24
Robinson Cano       16    6    3   25  596   24
Brian Roberts       14    6    2   22  664   24
Ryan Howard         39  -12   -3   24  592   22
Placido Polanco     10    6    9   25  563   22
Mark Ellis           6    6   13   25  552   22
Lance Berkman       36  -12   -3   21  629   21
Derek Jeter         24    9  -15   18  713   21
Carlos Guillen      21    9   -8   22  553   19
Brian Giles         13   -6   12   19  622   19
Brian McCann        13   13    -   26  458   19
Hanley Ramirez      30    9  -17   22  541   19
Alfonso Soriano     18   -6    6   18  664   19
Todd Helton         22  -12    7   17  645   18
Travis Hafner       37  -19    -   18  603   17
Aramis Ramirez      22   -2   -2   18  577   17
Aaron Hill          -1    6   13   18  588   17
Derrek Lee          34  -12   -1   21  505   17
Torii Hunter        13    4    1   18  572   16
Jeff Kent           17    6   -4   19  533   16
Edgar Renteria      10    9   -2   17  616   16
Johnny Damon         9    4    3   16  636   16
Nick Swisher        13    4   -2   15  633   15
Carlos Pena         39  -12   -1   26  340   14
Barry Bonds         39   -6   -9   24  359   13
Orlando Hudson       0    6    8   14  589   13
Ryan Zimmerman       9   -2    8   15  560   13
Vernon Wells         3    4    6   13  661   13
Mike Cameron         7    4    3   14  558   13
Russell Martin       5   13    -   18  424   12
Jason Bay           18   -6    0   12  660   12
Josh Bard           12   13    -   25  302   12
Jason Bartlett      -4    9   13   18  425   12
Milton Bradley      22   -6    8   24  314   12
Michael Young       15    9  -14   10  714   12
Troy Tulowitzki      0    9   14   23  330   12
Khalil Greene       -3    9    7   13  547   12
Andruw Jones         6    4    1   11  662   11
Aaron Rowand         5    4    2   11  590   11
Moises Alou         29   -6   -7   16  383   10
Kenji Johjima        3   13    -   16  391   10
Adrian Beltre        3   -2    8    9  656    9
Scott Rolen          3   -2   13   14  432    9
Ramon Hernandez      0   13    -   13  451    9
Adam Everett       -27    9   31   13  433    9
Hunter Pence        27    4   -3   28  207    9
Manny Ramirez       33   -6  -17   10  573    9
Bobby Abreu         15   -6   -1    8  689    9
Gary Matthews        1    4    4    9  594    9
Jason Varitek       -2   13    -   11  479    9
Alexis Rios         11   -6    4    9  599    8
Morgan Ensberg      10   -2    4   12  451    8
Adrian Gonzalez     19  -12    2    9  561    8
David DeJesus       -2    4    6    8  608    8
Matt Diaz           16   -6    7   17  291    8
Mark DeRosa          1    6    4   11  466    8
B.J. Upton          17    4   -5   16  300    8
Mark Grudzielanek   -4    6    7    9  524    8
Jermaine Dye        17   -6   -3    8  573    7
Luke Scott          20   -6    2   16  281    7
Rafael Furcal       -4    9    1    6  681    7
Bengie Molina       -4   13    -    9  473    7
Michael Barrett     -2   13    -   11  408    7
Mike Lowell          4   -2    5    7  613    7
Coco Crisp          -6    4    9    7  561    7
Freddy Sanchez       8    6   -7    7  602    6
Paul Lo Duca        -5   13    -    8  500    6
Ivan Rodriguez      -6   13    -    7  526    6
Prince Fielder      25  -12   -6    7  531    6
Ian Kinsler          6    6   -2   10  401    6
Jim Thome           27  -19    -    8  474    6
Garrett Atkins      14   -2   -6    6  660    6
Gregg Zaun          -4   13    -    9  394    6
Brandon Phillips    -1    6    2    7  496    6
Ryan Braun          35   -2  -17   16  210    5
Carlos Delgado      20  -12   -2    6  600    5
Hideki Matsui       17   -6   -4    7  499    5
Corey Hart          10   -6    5    9  343    5
David Eckstein      -6    9    3    6  557    5
Randy Winn           4   -6    7    5  645    5
Mike Napoli          1   13    -   14  221    5
Eric Byrnes         -1   -6   12    5  601    5
Justin Morneau      18  -12   -1    5  642    5
Mike Redmond         0   13    -   13  222    5
Kelly Johnson        5    6   -3    8  343    4
Troy Glaus          12   -2   -5    5  555    4
J.D. Drew           10   -6    1    5  500    4
Howie Kendrick       2    6    3   11  247    4
Jack Wilson        -11    9    7    5  577    4
Jose Valentin       -7    6   10    9  258    4
Ronny Paulino       -7   13    -    6  372    4
Jason Giambi        24  -19    -    5  445    4
Dave Roberts         1    4    0    5  482    4
Paul Konerko        18  -12   -3    3  640    4
Ryan Church         13   -6   -1    6  372    4
Orlando Cabrera     -5    9   -1    3  654    4
Kenny Lofton         5    4   -5    4  490    3
Emil Brown          -3   -6   13    4  510    3
Nick Markakis       11   -6   -1    4  488    3
Brendan Harris       6    9   -8    7  260    3
Eric Chavez          2   -2    4    4  520    3
A.J. Pierzynski     -9   13    -    4  513    3
Ronnie Belliard     -1    6   -2    3  569    3
Dustin Pedroia       1    6   -1    6  281    3
Chad Tracy           5   -2    0    3  470    2
Shane Victorino     -2   -6   12    4  373    2
Jack Cust           26  -19    -    7  212    2
Tadahito Iguchi     -3    6    0    3  568    2
Rocco Baldelli       3    4    0    7  194    2
Geoff Jenkins        5   -6    3    2  525    2
James Loney         20  -12   -2    6  199    2
Dan Uggla            2    6   -6    2  534    2
Alex Gonzalez      -10    9    4    3  439    2
Omar Vizquel       -17    9   10    2  600    2
Endy Chavez         -6   -6   16    4  231    2
Nook Logan         -14    4   13    3  268    1
Carlos Ruiz         -9   13    -    4  205    1
Jhonny Peralta       0    9   -8    1  634    1
Tony Graffanino     -6    6    2    2  375    1
Jim Edmonds          4    4   -6    2  437    1
Luis Castillo       -2    6   -3    1  597    1
Frank Thomas        20  -19    -    1  462    1
Rod Barajas        -11   13    -    2  293    1
Chris Duncan        15   -6   -7    2  291    1
Joe Crede           -8   -2   11    1  386    1
J.J. Hardy          -7    9   -1    1  426    1
Matt Murton          5   -6    3    2  322    1
Chris Duffy         -9    4    7    2  264    1
Mike Lieberthal    -11   13    -    2  217    1
Kazuo Matsui       -11    6    6    1  347    1
Corey Patterson    -14    4   11    1  496    0
Dave Ross          -12   13    -    1  276    0
Adam Dunn           16   -6  -10    0  659    0
Adam LaRoche         9  -12    3    0  575    0
Austin Kearns        1   -6    5    0  606    0
Brad Hawpe          12   -6   -6    0  532    0
Bobby Crosby       -15    9    6    0  384    0
Raul Ibanez         15   -6   -9    0  656    0
Jeremy Hermida       7   -6   -1    0  339    0
Melvin Mora          0   -2    2    0  608    0
Jeff Cirillo        -2   -2    4    0  235    0
Kevin Kouzmanoff     5   -2   -3    0  246    0
Ryan Theriot       -10    9    1    0  305    0
Juan Rivera         12   -6   -6    0  276    0
Matt Stairs         11  -12    1    0  403    0
Jamey Carroll      -19    6   12   -1  373    0
Damian Miller      -14   13    -   -1  309    0
Akinori Iwamura      5   -2   -4   -1  233    0
Chris Snyder       -14   13    -   -1  326   -1
Reed Johnson        -1    6    6   -1  406   -1
Johnny Estrada     -14   13    -   -1  433   -1
Marlon Anderson      3   -6    0   -3  210   -1
Marlon Byrd          0    4   -6   -2  328   -1
Tony Pena          -21    9   10   -2  242   -1
Jacque Jones        -3    4   -2   -1  538   -1
Daryle Ward          7  -12    2   -3  216   -1
Carlos Lee          19   -6  -14   -1  688   -1
Gerald Laird       -16   13    -   -3  284   -1
Chris Burke        -13    6    5   -2  381   -1
Mark Teahen          1   -6    3   -2  529   -1
Marcus Thames        1   -6    2   -3  276   -1
Scott Spiezio       -1   -2   -1   -4  222   -1
Pat Burrell         16   -6  -11   -1  600   -1
Andre Ethier         2   -6    1   -3  364   -1
Wilson Betemit      -2   -2    1   -3  328   -2
Dioner Navarro     -16   13    -   -3  341   -2
Casey Kotchman       2  -12    6   -4  283   -2
Reggie Sanders       1   -6    0   -5  228   -2
Michael Cuddyer     11   -6   -7   -2  589   -2
Josh Willingham     11   -6   -8   -3  450   -2
John Buck          -16   13    -   -3  413   -2
Omar Infante       -16    6    5   -5  268   -2
Chris Young        -10    4    2   -4  293   -2
Dmitri Young        14  -12   -5   -3  393   -2
Brian Schneider    -16   13    -   -3  448   -2
Reggie Willits      -6   -6    5   -7  238   -2
Gary Sheffield      16  -19    -   -3  456   -2
Jason Kubel          0   -6    0   -6  277   -3
Juan Pierre        -13    4    7   -2  729   -3
Tony Clark           6  -12   -1   -7  244   -3
Lyle Overbay         6  -12    3   -3  564   -3
Adam Kennedy       -15    6    4   -5  406   -3
Chone Figgins        4   -2   -5   -3  615   -3
David Dellucci       5   -6   -5   -6  307   -3
Neifi Perez        -27    9   11   -7  282   -3
Wes Helms            2   -2   -7   -7  266   -3
Ray Durham          -3    6   -7   -4  532   -3
Jason LaRue        -21   13    -   -8  259   -3
Shannon Stewart      0   -6    2   -4  468   -3
Toby Hall          -21   13    -   -8  261   -3
Marco Scutaro       -7    9   -7   -5  400   -3
Pedro Feliz        -17   -2   16   -3  607   -3
Yorvit Torrealba   -19   13    -   -6  320   -3
Alex Gordon         -7   -2    1   -8  258   -3
Yuniesky Betancourt -8    9   -5   -4  493   -3
Brandon Inge       -10   -2    8   -4  611   -3
Alfredo Amezaga    -18    4    7   -7  313   -4
Maicer Izturis      -2   -2   -3   -7  343   -4
Jose Cruz           -4   -6   -3   -7  317   -4
Ryan Garko           9  -12   -5   -8  299   -4
Kevin Youkilis       5  -12    2   -5  511   -4
Clint Barmes       -28    9   11   -8  289   -4
Jason Michaels      -8   -6    8   -6  388   -4
Doug Mientkiewicz   -5  -12    7  -10  274   -4
Cliff Floyd          4   -6   -5   -7  407   -4
Willy Taveras      -12    4    3   -5  530   -4
Julio Lugo         -11    9   -3   -5  590   -5
Miguel Olivo       -20   13    -   -7  415   -5
Jose Guillen         6   -6   -6   -6  512   -5
Ryan Klesko          1  -12    1  -10  296   -5
Juan Encarnacion     0   -6    0   -6  464   -5
Frank Catalanotto    5   -6   -6   -7  436   -5
Greg Norton          4  -19    -  -15  207   -5
Jason Kendall      -18   13    -   -5  583   -5
Ty Wigginton         5   -2  -10   -7  454   -5
Jeff DaVanon       -10    4  -10  -16  193   -5
Stephen Drew       -12    9   -6   -9  341   -5
Geoff Blum         -16    6    0  -10  335   -5
Ross Gload          -2  -12   -2  -16  209   -5
Ryan Langerhans    -16   -6   11  -11  320   -5
Craig Wilson        -6  -12    2  -16  218   -5
Jose Lopez         -16    6    3   -7  515   -5
Bill Hall            4    4  -14   -6  549   -5
Jeremy Reed        -19   -6    9  -16  222   -6
Garret Anderson      2   -6   -3   -7  523   -6
Joey Gathright     -19   -6   14  -11  315   -6
So Taguchi         -10    4   -4  -10  357   -6
John McDonald      -27    9    5  -13  284   -6
Rondell White      -11   -6    3  -14  262   -6
Chris Gomez         -4  -12   -1  -17  206   -6
Mike Jacobs          4  -12   -1   -9  395   -6
Melky Cabrera       -7    4   -5   -8  447   -6
Ben Broussard        4  -12   -1   -9  388   -6
Darin Erstad       -16    4    1  -11  339   -6
Mark Loretta        -8    9   -8   -7  549   -6
Casey Blake          0   -2   -5   -7  563   -6
Hank Blalock        -2   -2   -4   -8  491   -6
Xavier Nady          5   -6   -7   -8  454   -6
Delmon Young         0   -6   -5  -11  339   -6
Marcus Giles        -9    6   -4   -7  569   -6
Alex Cora          -24    6    2  -16  250   -6
Todd Walker         -1  -12   -1  -14  293   -6
Kevin Mench         -6   -6    3   -9  441   -6
Lew Ford           -14   -6    5  -15  284   -7
Bobby Kielty        -7   -6   -4  -17  247   -7
Ryan Freel         -12    4   -3  -11  405   -7
Yadier Molina      -23   13    -  -10  432   -7
Scott Hatteberg     -2  -12    0  -10  470   -7
Juan Uribe         -24    9    7   -8  535   -7
Royce Clayton      -23    9    2  -12  390   -7
Rickie Weeks         0    6  -16  -10  460   -7
Jeff Francouer      -1   -6   -1   -8  605   -8
Jay Gibbons         -2   -6   -5  -13  374   -8
Nomar Garciaparra   -1  -12    1  -12  423   -8
Chris Woodward     -24   -2    1  -25  193   -8
Mike Piazza          6  -19    -  -13  381   -8
Eric Hinske         -4  -12    0  -16  327   -8
Craig Biggio       -13    6   -2   -9  571   -8
Mike Sweeney         3  -19    -  -16  327   -8
Brady Clark         -8   -6    0  -14  374   -8
Brad Ausmus        -25   13    -  -12  432   -8
Cory Sullivan      -15    4   -6  -17  317   -8
Rich Aurilia        -4  -12    3  -13  416   -9
Conor Jackson        1  -12   -2  -13  416   -9
Cesar Izturis      -27    9    2  -16  331   -9
Ronny Cedeno       -29    9   -1  -21  252   -9
Dan Johnson          0  -12   -1  -13  425   -9
Aaron Miles        -19    6    0  -13  427   -9
Scott Podsednik    -17   -6   10  -13  433   -9
Luis Gonzalez        0   -6   -4  -10  588   -9
Shawn Green          3   -6   -7  -10  552   -9
Robert Fick        -15  -12   -1  -28  201   -9
Alex Cintron       -17   -2   -2  -21  269   -9
Jay Payton         -11   -6    5  -12  490   -9
Josh Barfield      -16    6   -5  -15  384   -9
Edwin Encarnacion    1   -2  -12  -13  455   -9
Trot Nixon          -7   -6   -2  -15  410   -9
Sean Casey          -3  -12    2  -13  493  -10
Rob Mackowiak       -6   -6   -5  -17  358  -10
Kevin Millar         1  -12   -2  -13  519  -10
Juan Castro        -27   -2   -5  -34  198  -11
Ken Griffey         10   -6  -17  -13  539  -11
Sammy Sosa          -5  -19    -  -24  285  -11
Mark Kotsay        -12    4   -8  -16  432  -11
Jonny Gomes          2  -19    -  -17  422  -11
Craig Counsell     -20   -2    6  -16  433  -11
Richie Sexson        7  -12   -7  -12  581  -11
Jorge Cantu         -6  -12   -2  -20  369  -12
Russ Adams         -18   -2   -9  -29  260  -12
Preston Wilson      -9   -6   -7  -22  346  -12
Brad Wilkerson      -5  -12    0  -17  446  -12
Jose Vidro           3  -19    -  -16  510  -13
Jose Castillo      -20   -2    1  -21  388  -13
Steve Finley       -21    4  -10  -27  300  -13
Abraham Nunez      -26   -2    5  -23  356  -13
Aaron Boone         -9  -12   -2  -23  360  -13
Felipe Lopez        -9    9  -13  -13  684  -14
Jeff Conine         -8  -12   -3  -23  382  -14
Miguel Cairo       -23  -12   -1  -36  250  -14
Craig Monroe       -12   -6    0  -18  525  -15
Jose Bautista       -8   -2  -13  -23  422  -15
Jason Lane         -13    4  -22  -31  333  -16
Nick Punto         -22   -2    4  -20  505  -16
Angel Berroa       -26    9  -14  -31  335  -17
Aubrey Huff         -1  -19    -  -20  577  -18
Shea Hillenbrand    -9  -19    -  -28  460  -21

* Now that Baseball-Reference includes Linear Weights, it's reasonable to ask why I stuck with RCAA. In large part, it's just because my spreadsheets already included RCAA, and the difference should be quite small. But, also, while Linear Weights conceptually should be more accurate than RCAA, I'm not sure the ones listed on BB-Ref necessarily are: they don't include SB/CS, which is a pretty major issue, and I suspect that the way the park adjustments are applied ends up overrating players in hitters' parks.