Marcel & Chone...no, not a new sitcom: 2008 offense + defense projections
With the offseason in full swing, I thought it was time for an update of my article from last year, combining offensive projections based on the Marcel system developed by Tango Tiger with the defensive projections of Chone Smith, aka AROM. The full methodology can be found in the previous article, but here's a quick recap of what each of the columns represent:
rcaa = The projected Runs Created Above Average* per 150 games (actually, 631 PAs) for each player in 2008, based on a weighted, regressed, age-adjusted three-year average. The numbers are park-adjusted and include SB/CS.
pos = Positional adjustment, also based on a three-year weighted average of the MLB mean at each position. Each player is projected at the position where they played the most games in 2007. At Tango Tiger's suggestion, I've also applied a "DH penalty" this year: the average DH is usually about +5 RCAA per 150 games, but that clearly doesn't reflect the offensive level of the average player a team should be able to find without taking defense into consideration at all, as it's worse than the average first baseman or corner outfielder. Also, the DH usually has a further negative impact by forcing the team to play an inferior defensive player, who could otherwise take the DH slot were their current DH able to play the field. I'm not sure there's a right answer to how to adjust for all this, but after playing with the numbers a little, I settled on 19 runs/150 games as my estimate of the overall DH impact.
def = AROM's projected defensive runs above/below average. Note that I don't have projections available for catchers, so all of them are given a defensive rating of 0.
p150 = The sum of the first three columns, representing a player's overall projection compared to average per 150 games.
PAs / dur = Durability is virtually impossible to predict, but I didn't want to ignore it entirely: for instance, catchers and older, injury-prone players (see Barry Bonds, even pre-indictment) really shouldn't be projected to play the same number of games as others. So I gave each player a projected number of plate appearances, based on a weighted, age-adjusted three-year average, and adjusted their per-150 game projection against that number. (For top-of-the-order hitters like Sizemore or Reyes, their defensive projection isn't prorated to the same degree as their offensive numbers, as, even though they'll have more PAs than other players with the same number of games played, they won't have any more defensive innings.) This negatively impacts players who've spent time in the minors the last few seasons, but, since their projections are based on a smaller sample of PAs, those projections are therefore less reliable, and the playing time adjustment acts as something of an extra level of regression.
Non-SB baserunning is not included, but, especially with regression, that likely wouldn't change any player's projection by more than a run or two. Also, no adjustment has been made for any difference in quality between the two leagues.
And now, the numbers:
* Now that Baseball-Reference includes Linear Weights, it's reasonable to ask why I stuck with RCAA. In large part, it's just because my spreadsheets already included RCAA, and the difference should be quite small. But, also, while Linear Weights conceptually should be more accurate than RCAA, I'm not sure the ones listed on BB-Ref necessarily are: they don't include SB/CS, which is a pretty major issue, and I suspect that the way the park adjustments are applied ends up overrating players in hitters' parks.
rcaa = The projected Runs Created Above Average* per 150 games (actually, 631 PAs) for each player in 2008, based on a weighted, regressed, age-adjusted three-year average. The numbers are park-adjusted and include SB/CS.
pos = Positional adjustment, also based on a three-year weighted average of the MLB mean at each position. Each player is projected at the position where they played the most games in 2007. At Tango Tiger's suggestion, I've also applied a "DH penalty" this year: the average DH is usually about +5 RCAA per 150 games, but that clearly doesn't reflect the offensive level of the average player a team should be able to find without taking defense into consideration at all, as it's worse than the average first baseman or corner outfielder. Also, the DH usually has a further negative impact by forcing the team to play an inferior defensive player, who could otherwise take the DH slot were their current DH able to play the field. I'm not sure there's a right answer to how to adjust for all this, but after playing with the numbers a little, I settled on 19 runs/150 games as my estimate of the overall DH impact.
def = AROM's projected defensive runs above/below average. Note that I don't have projections available for catchers, so all of them are given a defensive rating of 0.
p150 = The sum of the first three columns, representing a player's overall projection compared to average per 150 games.
PAs / dur = Durability is virtually impossible to predict, but I didn't want to ignore it entirely: for instance, catchers and older, injury-prone players (see Barry Bonds, even pre-indictment) really shouldn't be projected to play the same number of games as others. So I gave each player a projected number of plate appearances, based on a weighted, age-adjusted three-year average, and adjusted their per-150 game projection against that number. (For top-of-the-order hitters like Sizemore or Reyes, their defensive projection isn't prorated to the same degree as their offensive numbers, as, even though they'll have more PAs than other players with the same number of games played, they won't have any more defensive innings.) This negatively impacts players who've spent time in the minors the last few seasons, but, since their projections are based on a smaller sample of PAs, those projections are therefore less reliable, and the playing time adjustment acts as something of an extra level of regression.
Non-SB baserunning is not included, but, especially with regression, that likely wouldn't change any player's projection by more than a run or two. Also, no adjustment has been made for any difference in quality between the two leagues.
And now, the numbers:
name rcaa pos def p150 PAs dur
Albert Pujols 58 -12 9 55 673 58
Chase Utley 30 6 14 50 657 52
Alex Rodriguez 49 -2 -5 42 690 46
David Wright 39 -2 2 39 693 43
Chipper Jones 49 -2 5 52 506 42
Grady Sizemore 21 4 10 35 752 40
Matt Holliday 34 -6 10 38 655 40
Miguel Cabrera 47 -2 -10 35 696 39
Victor Martinez 21 13 - 34 640 34
Carlos Beltran 21 4 9 34 629 34
Curtis Granderson 15 4 19 38 558 33
Jorge Posada 25 13 - 38 550 33
David Ortiz 49 -19 - 30 677 32
Joe Mauer 24 13 - 37 550 32
Vladimir Guerrero 40 -6 -5 29 639 29
Miguel Tejada 19 9 0 28 643 29
Ichiro Suzuki 19 4 1 24 729 28
Magglio Ordonez 33 -6 1 28 575 26
Carl Crawford 19 -6 11 24 657 25
Jose Reyes 7 9 6 22 754 25
Jimmy Rollins 10 9 2 21 758 25
Mark Teixeira 32 -12 3 23 668 24
Robinson Cano 16 6 3 25 596 24
Brian Roberts 14 6 2 22 664 24
Ryan Howard 39 -12 -3 24 592 22
Placido Polanco 10 6 9 25 563 22
Mark Ellis 6 6 13 25 552 22
Lance Berkman 36 -12 -3 21 629 21
Derek Jeter 24 9 -15 18 713 21
Carlos Guillen 21 9 -8 22 553 19
Brian Giles 13 -6 12 19 622 19
Brian McCann 13 13 - 26 458 19
Hanley Ramirez 30 9 -17 22 541 19
Alfonso Soriano 18 -6 6 18 664 19
Todd Helton 22 -12 7 17 645 18
Travis Hafner 37 -19 - 18 603 17
Aramis Ramirez 22 -2 -2 18 577 17
Aaron Hill -1 6 13 18 588 17
Derrek Lee 34 -12 -1 21 505 17
Torii Hunter 13 4 1 18 572 16
Jeff Kent 17 6 -4 19 533 16
Edgar Renteria 10 9 -2 17 616 16
Johnny Damon 9 4 3 16 636 16
Nick Swisher 13 4 -2 15 633 15
Carlos Pena 39 -12 -1 26 340 14
Barry Bonds 39 -6 -9 24 359 13
Orlando Hudson 0 6 8 14 589 13
Ryan Zimmerman 9 -2 8 15 560 13
Vernon Wells 3 4 6 13 661 13
Mike Cameron 7 4 3 14 558 13
Russell Martin 5 13 - 18 424 12
Jason Bay 18 -6 0 12 660 12
Josh Bard 12 13 - 25 302 12
Jason Bartlett -4 9 13 18 425 12
Milton Bradley 22 -6 8 24 314 12
Michael Young 15 9 -14 10 714 12
Troy Tulowitzki 0 9 14 23 330 12
Khalil Greene -3 9 7 13 547 12
Andruw Jones 6 4 1 11 662 11
Aaron Rowand 5 4 2 11 590 11
Moises Alou 29 -6 -7 16 383 10
Kenji Johjima 3 13 - 16 391 10
Adrian Beltre 3 -2 8 9 656 9
Scott Rolen 3 -2 13 14 432 9
Ramon Hernandez 0 13 - 13 451 9
Adam Everett -27 9 31 13 433 9
Hunter Pence 27 4 -3 28 207 9
Manny Ramirez 33 -6 -17 10 573 9
Bobby Abreu 15 -6 -1 8 689 9
Gary Matthews 1 4 4 9 594 9
Jason Varitek -2 13 - 11 479 9
Alexis Rios 11 -6 4 9 599 8
Morgan Ensberg 10 -2 4 12 451 8
Adrian Gonzalez 19 -12 2 9 561 8
David DeJesus -2 4 6 8 608 8
Matt Diaz 16 -6 7 17 291 8
Mark DeRosa 1 6 4 11 466 8
B.J. Upton 17 4 -5 16 300 8
Mark Grudzielanek -4 6 7 9 524 8
Jermaine Dye 17 -6 -3 8 573 7
Luke Scott 20 -6 2 16 281 7
Rafael Furcal -4 9 1 6 681 7
Bengie Molina -4 13 - 9 473 7
Michael Barrett -2 13 - 11 408 7
Mike Lowell 4 -2 5 7 613 7
Coco Crisp -6 4 9 7 561 7
Freddy Sanchez 8 6 -7 7 602 6
Paul Lo Duca -5 13 - 8 500 6
Ivan Rodriguez -6 13 - 7 526 6
Prince Fielder 25 -12 -6 7 531 6
Ian Kinsler 6 6 -2 10 401 6
Jim Thome 27 -19 - 8 474 6
Garrett Atkins 14 -2 -6 6 660 6
Gregg Zaun -4 13 - 9 394 6
Brandon Phillips -1 6 2 7 496 6
Ryan Braun 35 -2 -17 16 210 5
Carlos Delgado 20 -12 -2 6 600 5
Hideki Matsui 17 -6 -4 7 499 5
Corey Hart 10 -6 5 9 343 5
David Eckstein -6 9 3 6 557 5
Randy Winn 4 -6 7 5 645 5
Mike Napoli 1 13 - 14 221 5
Eric Byrnes -1 -6 12 5 601 5
Justin Morneau 18 -12 -1 5 642 5
Mike Redmond 0 13 - 13 222 5
Kelly Johnson 5 6 -3 8 343 4
Troy Glaus 12 -2 -5 5 555 4
J.D. Drew 10 -6 1 5 500 4
Howie Kendrick 2 6 3 11 247 4
Jack Wilson -11 9 7 5 577 4
Jose Valentin -7 6 10 9 258 4
Ronny Paulino -7 13 - 6 372 4
Jason Giambi 24 -19 - 5 445 4
Dave Roberts 1 4 0 5 482 4
Paul Konerko 18 -12 -3 3 640 4
Ryan Church 13 -6 -1 6 372 4
Orlando Cabrera -5 9 -1 3 654 4
Kenny Lofton 5 4 -5 4 490 3
Emil Brown -3 -6 13 4 510 3
Nick Markakis 11 -6 -1 4 488 3
Brendan Harris 6 9 -8 7 260 3
Eric Chavez 2 -2 4 4 520 3
A.J. Pierzynski -9 13 - 4 513 3
Ronnie Belliard -1 6 -2 3 569 3
Dustin Pedroia 1 6 -1 6 281 3
Chad Tracy 5 -2 0 3 470 2
Shane Victorino -2 -6 12 4 373 2
Jack Cust 26 -19 - 7 212 2
Tadahito Iguchi -3 6 0 3 568 2
Rocco Baldelli 3 4 0 7 194 2
Geoff Jenkins 5 -6 3 2 525 2
James Loney 20 -12 -2 6 199 2
Dan Uggla 2 6 -6 2 534 2
Alex Gonzalez -10 9 4 3 439 2
Omar Vizquel -17 9 10 2 600 2
Endy Chavez -6 -6 16 4 231 2
Nook Logan -14 4 13 3 268 1
Carlos Ruiz -9 13 - 4 205 1
Jhonny Peralta 0 9 -8 1 634 1
Tony Graffanino -6 6 2 2 375 1
Jim Edmonds 4 4 -6 2 437 1
Luis Castillo -2 6 -3 1 597 1
Frank Thomas 20 -19 - 1 462 1
Rod Barajas -11 13 - 2 293 1
Chris Duncan 15 -6 -7 2 291 1
Joe Crede -8 -2 11 1 386 1
J.J. Hardy -7 9 -1 1 426 1
Matt Murton 5 -6 3 2 322 1
Chris Duffy -9 4 7 2 264 1
Mike Lieberthal -11 13 - 2 217 1
Kazuo Matsui -11 6 6 1 347 1
Corey Patterson -14 4 11 1 496 0
Dave Ross -12 13 - 1 276 0
Adam Dunn 16 -6 -10 0 659 0
Adam LaRoche 9 -12 3 0 575 0
Austin Kearns 1 -6 5 0 606 0
Brad Hawpe 12 -6 -6 0 532 0
Bobby Crosby -15 9 6 0 384 0
Raul Ibanez 15 -6 -9 0 656 0
Jeremy Hermida 7 -6 -1 0 339 0
Melvin Mora 0 -2 2 0 608 0
Jeff Cirillo -2 -2 4 0 235 0
Kevin Kouzmanoff 5 -2 -3 0 246 0
Ryan Theriot -10 9 1 0 305 0
Juan Rivera 12 -6 -6 0 276 0
Matt Stairs 11 -12 1 0 403 0
Jamey Carroll -19 6 12 -1 373 0
Damian Miller -14 13 - -1 309 0
Akinori Iwamura 5 -2 -4 -1 233 0
Chris Snyder -14 13 - -1 326 -1
Reed Johnson -1 6 6 -1 406 -1
Johnny Estrada -14 13 - -1 433 -1
Marlon Anderson 3 -6 0 -3 210 -1
Marlon Byrd 0 4 -6 -2 328 -1
Tony Pena -21 9 10 -2 242 -1
Jacque Jones -3 4 -2 -1 538 -1
Daryle Ward 7 -12 2 -3 216 -1
Carlos Lee 19 -6 -14 -1 688 -1
Gerald Laird -16 13 - -3 284 -1
Chris Burke -13 6 5 -2 381 -1
Mark Teahen 1 -6 3 -2 529 -1
Marcus Thames 1 -6 2 -3 276 -1
Scott Spiezio -1 -2 -1 -4 222 -1
Pat Burrell 16 -6 -11 -1 600 -1
Andre Ethier 2 -6 1 -3 364 -1
Wilson Betemit -2 -2 1 -3 328 -2
Dioner Navarro -16 13 - -3 341 -2
Casey Kotchman 2 -12 6 -4 283 -2
Reggie Sanders 1 -6 0 -5 228 -2
Michael Cuddyer 11 -6 -7 -2 589 -2
Josh Willingham 11 -6 -8 -3 450 -2
John Buck -16 13 - -3 413 -2
Omar Infante -16 6 5 -5 268 -2
Chris Young -10 4 2 -4 293 -2
Dmitri Young 14 -12 -5 -3 393 -2
Brian Schneider -16 13 - -3 448 -2
Reggie Willits -6 -6 5 -7 238 -2
Gary Sheffield 16 -19 - -3 456 -2
Jason Kubel 0 -6 0 -6 277 -3
Juan Pierre -13 4 7 -2 729 -3
Tony Clark 6 -12 -1 -7 244 -3
Lyle Overbay 6 -12 3 -3 564 -3
Adam Kennedy -15 6 4 -5 406 -3
Chone Figgins 4 -2 -5 -3 615 -3
David Dellucci 5 -6 -5 -6 307 -3
Neifi Perez -27 9 11 -7 282 -3
Wes Helms 2 -2 -7 -7 266 -3
Ray Durham -3 6 -7 -4 532 -3
Jason LaRue -21 13 - -8 259 -3
Shannon Stewart 0 -6 2 -4 468 -3
Toby Hall -21 13 - -8 261 -3
Marco Scutaro -7 9 -7 -5 400 -3
Pedro Feliz -17 -2 16 -3 607 -3
Yorvit Torrealba -19 13 - -6 320 -3
Alex Gordon -7 -2 1 -8 258 -3
Yuniesky Betancourt -8 9 -5 -4 493 -3
Brandon Inge -10 -2 8 -4 611 -3
Alfredo Amezaga -18 4 7 -7 313 -4
Maicer Izturis -2 -2 -3 -7 343 -4
Jose Cruz -4 -6 -3 -7 317 -4
Ryan Garko 9 -12 -5 -8 299 -4
Kevin Youkilis 5 -12 2 -5 511 -4
Clint Barmes -28 9 11 -8 289 -4
Jason Michaels -8 -6 8 -6 388 -4
Doug Mientkiewicz -5 -12 7 -10 274 -4
Cliff Floyd 4 -6 -5 -7 407 -4
Willy Taveras -12 4 3 -5 530 -4
Julio Lugo -11 9 -3 -5 590 -5
Miguel Olivo -20 13 - -7 415 -5
Jose Guillen 6 -6 -6 -6 512 -5
Ryan Klesko 1 -12 1 -10 296 -5
Juan Encarnacion 0 -6 0 -6 464 -5
Frank Catalanotto 5 -6 -6 -7 436 -5
Greg Norton 4 -19 - -15 207 -5
Jason Kendall -18 13 - -5 583 -5
Ty Wigginton 5 -2 -10 -7 454 -5
Jeff DaVanon -10 4 -10 -16 193 -5
Stephen Drew -12 9 -6 -9 341 -5
Geoff Blum -16 6 0 -10 335 -5
Ross Gload -2 -12 -2 -16 209 -5
Ryan Langerhans -16 -6 11 -11 320 -5
Craig Wilson -6 -12 2 -16 218 -5
Jose Lopez -16 6 3 -7 515 -5
Bill Hall 4 4 -14 -6 549 -5
Jeremy Reed -19 -6 9 -16 222 -6
Garret Anderson 2 -6 -3 -7 523 -6
Joey Gathright -19 -6 14 -11 315 -6
So Taguchi -10 4 -4 -10 357 -6
John McDonald -27 9 5 -13 284 -6
Rondell White -11 -6 3 -14 262 -6
Chris Gomez -4 -12 -1 -17 206 -6
Mike Jacobs 4 -12 -1 -9 395 -6
Melky Cabrera -7 4 -5 -8 447 -6
Ben Broussard 4 -12 -1 -9 388 -6
Darin Erstad -16 4 1 -11 339 -6
Mark Loretta -8 9 -8 -7 549 -6
Casey Blake 0 -2 -5 -7 563 -6
Hank Blalock -2 -2 -4 -8 491 -6
Xavier Nady 5 -6 -7 -8 454 -6
Delmon Young 0 -6 -5 -11 339 -6
Marcus Giles -9 6 -4 -7 569 -6
Alex Cora -24 6 2 -16 250 -6
Todd Walker -1 -12 -1 -14 293 -6
Kevin Mench -6 -6 3 -9 441 -6
Lew Ford -14 -6 5 -15 284 -7
Bobby Kielty -7 -6 -4 -17 247 -7
Ryan Freel -12 4 -3 -11 405 -7
Yadier Molina -23 13 - -10 432 -7
Scott Hatteberg -2 -12 0 -10 470 -7
Juan Uribe -24 9 7 -8 535 -7
Royce Clayton -23 9 2 -12 390 -7
Rickie Weeks 0 6 -16 -10 460 -7
Jeff Francouer -1 -6 -1 -8 605 -8
Jay Gibbons -2 -6 -5 -13 374 -8
Nomar Garciaparra -1 -12 1 -12 423 -8
Chris Woodward -24 -2 1 -25 193 -8
Mike Piazza 6 -19 - -13 381 -8
Eric Hinske -4 -12 0 -16 327 -8
Craig Biggio -13 6 -2 -9 571 -8
Mike Sweeney 3 -19 - -16 327 -8
Brady Clark -8 -6 0 -14 374 -8
Brad Ausmus -25 13 - -12 432 -8
Cory Sullivan -15 4 -6 -17 317 -8
Rich Aurilia -4 -12 3 -13 416 -9
Conor Jackson 1 -12 -2 -13 416 -9
Cesar Izturis -27 9 2 -16 331 -9
Ronny Cedeno -29 9 -1 -21 252 -9
Dan Johnson 0 -12 -1 -13 425 -9
Aaron Miles -19 6 0 -13 427 -9
Scott Podsednik -17 -6 10 -13 433 -9
Luis Gonzalez 0 -6 -4 -10 588 -9
Shawn Green 3 -6 -7 -10 552 -9
Robert Fick -15 -12 -1 -28 201 -9
Alex Cintron -17 -2 -2 -21 269 -9
Jay Payton -11 -6 5 -12 490 -9
Josh Barfield -16 6 -5 -15 384 -9
Edwin Encarnacion 1 -2 -12 -13 455 -9
Trot Nixon -7 -6 -2 -15 410 -9
Sean Casey -3 -12 2 -13 493 -10
Rob Mackowiak -6 -6 -5 -17 358 -10
Kevin Millar 1 -12 -2 -13 519 -10
Juan Castro -27 -2 -5 -34 198 -11
Ken Griffey 10 -6 -17 -13 539 -11
Sammy Sosa -5 -19 - -24 285 -11
Mark Kotsay -12 4 -8 -16 432 -11
Jonny Gomes 2 -19 - -17 422 -11
Craig Counsell -20 -2 6 -16 433 -11
Richie Sexson 7 -12 -7 -12 581 -11
Jorge Cantu -6 -12 -2 -20 369 -12
Russ Adams -18 -2 -9 -29 260 -12
Preston Wilson -9 -6 -7 -22 346 -12
Brad Wilkerson -5 -12 0 -17 446 -12
Jose Vidro 3 -19 - -16 510 -13
Jose Castillo -20 -2 1 -21 388 -13
Steve Finley -21 4 -10 -27 300 -13
Abraham Nunez -26 -2 5 -23 356 -13
Aaron Boone -9 -12 -2 -23 360 -13
Felipe Lopez -9 9 -13 -13 684 -14
Jeff Conine -8 -12 -3 -23 382 -14
Miguel Cairo -23 -12 -1 -36 250 -14
Craig Monroe -12 -6 0 -18 525 -15
Jose Bautista -8 -2 -13 -23 422 -15
Jason Lane -13 4 -22 -31 333 -16
Nick Punto -22 -2 4 -20 505 -16
Angel Berroa -26 9 -14 -31 335 -17
Aubrey Huff -1 -19 - -20 577 -18
Shea Hillenbrand -9 -19 - -28 460 -21
* Now that Baseball-Reference includes Linear Weights, it's reasonable to ask why I stuck with RCAA. In large part, it's just because my spreadsheets already included RCAA, and the difference should be quite small. But, also, while Linear Weights conceptually should be more accurate than RCAA, I'm not sure the ones listed on BB-Ref necessarily are: they don't include SB/CS, which is a pretty major issue, and I suspect that the way the park adjustments are applied ends up overrating players in hitters' parks.
posted by Danny Wind @ 11:29 PM
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