2009 MLB projections
Here, at last, are my 2009 MLB projections, based, as usual, on (slightly tweaked) Marcel offensive projections and CHONE defensive projections. (The methodology is described here and here.) All numbers are projected runs above average per 150 games. The only notable difference between these and my previous projections (aside from adding in catcher defense this year) is that I'm no longer including a projected playing time adjustment. While adjustments like that do have value (the top of the list may appear overloaded with catchers, but most of the catchers here aren't likely to catch anything like 150 games), playing time is just too much of a crapshoot to project for most players, and doing things this way at least has the effect of filling the middle of the list with truly average players, rather than really good or bad players who aren't expected to play much.
*Used exclusively as a PH in 2008.
name rcaa pos def tot
Albert Pujols 66 -13 12 65
Chipper Jones 56 -3 7 60
Joe Mauer 29 11 9 49
Chase Utley 31 3 14 48
Matt Holliday 40 -7 8 41
Alex Rodriguez 45 -3 -2 40
Carlos Beltran 27 2 9 38
David Wright 38 -3 2 37
Grady Sizemore 24 2 9 35
Jorge Posada 26 11 -2 35
Curtis Granderson 18 2 13 33
Hanley Ramirez 36 8 -11 33
Lance Berkman 40 -13 4 31
Brian McCann 21 11 -2 30
Mark Teixeira 35 -13 6 28
Geovany Soto 15 11 1 27
Ryan Braun 31 -7 2 26
Victor Martinez 13 11 2 26
David Ortiz 39 -15 - 24
Jimmy Rollins 12 8 3 23
Miguel Cabrera 37 -13 -1 23
Dustin Pedroia 15 3 4 22
Russell Martin 8 11 3 22
Manny Ramirez 43 -7 -15 21
Josh Hamilton 25 2 -6 21
Magglio Ordonez 32 -8 -4 20
Milton Bradley 35 -15 - 20
Yunel Escobar 6 8 6 20
Ryan Doumit 14 11 -5 20
Placido Polanco 7 3 9 19
Mike Napoli 12 11 -4 19
Ryan Ludwick 26 -8 1 19
Vladimir Guerrero 33 -8 -6 19
Denard Span 14 -8 13 19
Carlos Pena 31 -13 1 19
Jose Reyes 16 8 -5 19
Evan Longoria 14 -3 7 18
Mike Redmond -2 11 9 18
Ian Kinsler 17 3 -3 17
Ichiro Suzuki 18 -8 7 17
Kelly Shoppach 7 11 -1 17
Torii Hunter 14 2 1 17
Brian Roberts 12 3 2 17
Mark Ellis -2 3 15 16
Adrian Gonzalez 27 -13 2 16
Adrian Beltre 8 -3 11 16
Brian Giles 16 -8 8 16
Aramis Ramirez 21 -3 -3 15
Carlos Guillen 18 -3 0 15
Scott Rolen 5 -3 13 15
Kurt Suzuki -3 11 7 15
Ryan Howard 31 -13 -3 15
Rafael Furcal 5 8 2 15
Troy Tulowitzki -4 8 11 15
Aaron Hill -1 3 13 15
Carl Crawford 12 -7 9 14
B.J. Upton 12 2 0 14
J.J. Hardy 4 8 1 13
Miguel Tejada 5 8 0 13
Justin Morneau 27 -13 -1 13
Derek Jeter 18 8 -13 13
Alexis Rios 16 -8 5 13
Nick Markakis 20 -8 1 13
Ryan Zimmerman 6 -3 10 13
Jason Bartlett -5 8 9 12
Shane Victorino 4 2 6 12
Mike Cameron 7 2 3 12
Chris Iannetta 3 11 -2 12
Kenji Johjima -6 11 7 12
Jim Thome 26 -15 - 11
Alfonso Soriano 20 -7 -2 11
Orlando Hudson 5 3 3 11
Johnny Damon 12 -7 6 11
Ivan Rodriguez -6 11 5 10
Mike Lowell 8 -3 5 10
Marlon Byrd 9 2 -1 10
Mark DeRosa 7 3 0 10
Chris Snyder -5 11 4 10
Cristian Guzman 9 8 -7 10
Cody Ross 11 2 -3 10
Robinson Cano 7 3 0 10
Luke Scott 15 -7 2 10
Yadier Molina -12 11 11 10
Todd Helton 14 -13 8 9
Howie Kendrick 3 3 3 9
Maicer Izturis -2 8 2 8
Kevin Youkilis 18 -13 3 8
Edgar Renteria 6 8 -6 8
Vernon Wells 8 2 -2 8
Brandon Phillips -2 3 7 8
Dan Uggla 9 3 -5 7
Andre Ethier 15 -8 0 7
David DeJesus 5 -7 9 7
Moises Alou 23 -7 -9 7
Troy Glaus 14 -3 -4 7
Jack Wilson -8 8 7 7
Nate McLouth 13 2 -9 6
Kelly Johnson 8 3 -5 6
Mark Grudzielanek 0 3 3 6
J.D. Drew 14 -8 0 6
Ryan Church 9 -8 5 6
Josh Bard 4 11 -9 6
Aaron Rowand 4 2 0 6
Jermaine Dye 20 -8 -6 6
Benjie Molina -4 11 -1 6
Jeff Kent 9 3 -6 6
Jacoby Ellsbury 2 2 1 5
Franklin Gutierrez -9 -8 22 5
Rick Ankiel 11 2 -8 5
Endy Chavez -7 -8 20 5
Matt Kemp 13 2 -10 5
Dave Ross -10 11 4 5
Hunter Pence 11 -8 2 5
Prince Fielder 26 -13 -8 5
Michael Young 6 8 -9 5
Jason Bay 17 -7 -6 4
Rod Barajas -12 11 5 4
Dioner Navarro -10 11 3 4
Carlos Quentin 16 -7 -5 4
Orlando Cabrera -5 8 1 4
Gerald Laird -12 11 5 4
Joe Inglett 4 3 -4 3
Asdrubal Cabrera -6 3 6 3
Travis Hafner 18 -15 - 3
Gregg Zaun -4 11 -4 3
Adam LaRoche 15 -13 1 3
Jack Cust 21 -7 -11 3
Derrek Lee 15 -13 1 3
Matt Diaz 8 -7 2 3
Skip Schumaker 5 2 -4 3
Marco Scutaro -7 8 1 2
Khalil Greene -11 8 5 2
Kazuo Matsui -2 3 1 2
Alexei Ramirez 2 3 -3 2
Joey Votto 17 -13 -2 2
Ramon Hernandez -6 11 -3 2
Akinori Iwamura -1 3 0 2
Ronny Paulino -10 11 1 2
Randy Winn 3 -8 7 2
Willie Harris -5 -7 14 2
Xavier Nady 15 -8 -5 2
Adam Everett -26 8 19 1
Garrett Atkins 11 -3 -7 1
Erick Aybar -15 8 8 1
Paul Lo Duca -8 11 -2 1
James Loney 13 -13 1 1
Blake DeWitt -2 -3 6 1
Nomar Garciaparra 1 8 -8 1
Joe Crede -6 -3 10 1
Eric Chavez 0 -3 4 1
Carlos Lee 27 -7 -19 1
Rajai Davis -9 2 7 0
Carlos Gomez -14 2 12 0
Jose Lopez -5 3 2 0
Corey Hart 6 -8 2 0
Aubrey Huff 15 -15 - 0
Jason Varitek -13 11 2 0
Frank Thomas 14 -15 - -1
Jhonny Peralta -1 8 -8 -1
A.J. Pierzynski -8 11 -4 -1
Adam Jones -10 2 7 -1
David Murphy 7 -8 0 -1
Eric Byrnes -3 -7 9 -1
Raul Ibanez 19 -7 -13 -1
Fred Lewis 5 -7 1 -1
Ty Wigginton 10 -3 -8 -1
Conor Jackson 7 -7 -1 -1
Jamey Carroll -12 3 7 -2
Nick Punto -13 8 3 -2
David Eckstein -8 8 -2 -2
Hideki Matsui 13 -15 - -2
Reed Johnson 1 2 -5 -2
Mark Teahen 1 -8 4 -3
Freddy Sanchez 1 3 -7 -3
Carlos Delgado 13 -13 -3 -3
Ryan Sweeney -4 -8 9 -3
Carlos Ruiz -17 11 3 -3
Josh Willingham 12 -7 -8 -3
Miguel Olivo -14 11 0 -3
Brian Schneider -16 11 2 -3
Bobby Abreu 16 -8 -11 -3
Omar Vizquel -22 8 11 -3
Matt Murton -3 -7 7 -3
Lyle Overbay 4 -13 5 -4
Jim Edmonds 0 2 -6 -4
Adam Dunn 16 -7 -13 -4
Jason Giambi 17 -13 -8 -4
Chone Figgins -1 -3 0 -4
Stephen Drew -3 8 -9 -4
Kevin Kouzmanoff 3 -3 4 -4
Jesus Flores -12 11 -3 -4
Ryan Theriot -6 8 -7 -5
Johnny Estrada -15 11 -1 -5
Brad Hawpe 18 -8 -15 -5
Kosuke Fukudome -6 -8 9 -5
Casey Blake 6 -3 -8 -5
Brandon Inge -14 11 -2 -5
Melvin Mora 1 -3 -3 -5
Doug Mientkiewicz 1 -13 7 -5
Clint Barmes -15 3 7 -5
Nick Swisher 8 -13 0 -5
Paul Konerko 10 -13 -3 -6
Pat Burrell 15 -7 -14 -6
Brendan Harris 2 8 -16 -6
Yorvit Torrealba -19 11 -2 -6
Andruw Jones -9 2 1 -6
Matt Treanor -15 11 -2 -6
Austin Kearns -5 -8 7 -6
Michael Cuddyer 10 -8 -8 -6
Rickie Weeks 0 3 -9 -6
Adam Kennedy -15 3 6 -6
Tadahito Iguchi -9 3 -1 -7
Jeremy Hermida 1 -8 0 -7
Gabe Gross -2 -8 3 -7
Casey Kotchman -1 -13 7 -7
Ryan Langerhans -14 -7 14 -7
Yuniesky Betancourt -7 8 -8 -7
Gary Matthews -3 -8 4 -7
Garret Anderson 3 -7 -3 -7
John Buck -15 11 -3 -7
Jason Kendall -18 11 0 -7
Chris Duncan 8 -7 -9 -8
Dave Roberts -5 -7 4 -8
Jose Molina -26 11 7 -8
Ray Durham 0 3 -11 -8
Cesar Izturis -23 8 7 -8
Alfredo Amezaga -15 2 5 -8
Scott Hatteberg 4 -13 0 -9
Jason Kubel 6 -15 - -9
Dmitri Young 13 -13 -9 -9
Willy Taveras -14 2 3 -9
Pedro Feliz -17 -3 11 -9
Ronnie Belliard 3 -13 1 -9
Michael Barrett -9 11 -11 -9
Matt Stairs 6 -15 - -9
Chris Young -10 2 -1 -9
Ben Francisco 0 -7 -2 -9
Bobby Crosby -20 8 3 -9
Corey Patterson -18 2 7 -9
Juan Rivera 5 -7 -7 -9
Juan Pierre -11 -7 9 -9
Jack Hannahan -11 -3 5 -9
Coco Crisp -8 2 -3 -9
Mark Loretta -8 3 -5 -10
Alex Cora -16 8 -2 -10
Luis Castillo -5 3 -8 -10
Bill Hall -6 -3 -1 -10
Marcus Thames 2 -7 -5 -10
Aaron Miles -9 3 -5 -11
Shannon Stewart -2 -7 -2 -11
Alexi Casilla -10 3 -4 -11
Delmon Young 2 -7 -6 -11
Alex Gordon 1 -3 -9 -11
Rocco Baldelli 4 -15 - -11
Brad Ausmus -28 11 5 -12
Melky Cabrera -11 2 -3 -12
Frank Catalanotto 2 -13 -1 -12
Jason LaRue -26 11 3 -12
Morgan Ensberg -6 -3 -3 -12
Jeff Keppinger -7 8 -13 -12
Gary Sheffield 3 -15 - -12
Daric Barton -3 -13 4 -12
Jacque Jones -10 -7 5 -12
Adam Lind -3 -7 -2 -12
Omar Infante -5 -7 9 -12
Mark Reynolds -2 -3 -8 -13
Hank Blalock 5 -13 -5 -13
John McDonald -29 8 8 -13
Reggie Willits -10 -7 4 -13
Joey Gathright -19 2 4 -13
Biily Butler 2 -15 - -13
Julio Lugo -15 8 -6 -13
Emil Brown -10 -7 4 -13
Justin Upton -5 -8 0 -13
Lastings Milledge -6 2 -10 -14
Ryan Garko 5 -13 -6 -14
Edwin Encarnacion 3 -3 -14 -14
Chris Burke -15 -2 3 -14
Felipe Lopez -11 3 -7 -15
Jeremy Reed -15 2 -2 -15
Craig Counsell -22 -3 10 -15
Sean Casey -2 -13 0 -15
Cliff Floyd 0 -15 - -15
Darin Erstad -19 -7 11 -15
Wes Helms -7 -3 -5 -15
Greg Norton 6 -7 -14 -15
Jeff Mathis -27 11 0 -16
Rich Aurilia -5 -13 2 -16
Dan Johnson -2 -13 -1 -16
Scott Podsednik -18 2 0 -16
Ramon Vazquez -6 -3 -7 -16
Toby Hall -22 11 -5 -16
Gregor Blanco -12 -7 3 -16
Geoff Blum -15 -3 2 -16
Ryan Freel -12 2 -6 -16
Jason Michaels -14 -8 5 -17
Jose Bautista -7 -3 -7 -17
Geoff Jenkins -6 -8 -3 -17
Jose Guillen 2 -8 -11 -17
Wilson Betemit -4 -13 0 -17
Michael Bourn -20 2 1 -17
Jorge Cantu -1 -3 -14 -18
Chris Gomez -7 -3 -8 -18
Jay Payton -15 -7 4 -18
Rob Mackowiak -9 -7 -2 -18
Kevin Millar -4 -13 -2 -19
Josh Barfield -17 3 -5 -19
Trot Nixon -11 -7 -1 -19
Brian N. Anderson -19 2 -2 -19
Ben Broussard -3 -13 -3 -19
So Taguchi -12 -7 0 -19
Mike Jacobs 2 -13 -8 -19
Mark Kotsay -11 2 -10 -19
Eric Hinske 0 -8 -11 -19
Jose Vidro -4 -15 - -19
Ross Gload -5 -13 -1 -19
Mike Sweeney -5 -15 - -20
Jeff Francoeur -11 -8 -1 -20
Luis Gonzalez -2 -7 -11 -20
Ronny Cedeno -24 3 1 -20
Cory Sullivan -12 -3 -5 -20
Chad Tracy -5 -13 -2 -20
Juan Uribe -22 -3 -5 -20
Kevin Mench -9 -7 -4 -20
Tony Pena -32 8 3 -21
Jose Cruz -13 -7 -1 -21
Tony Clark -7 -13 -1 -21
Ken Griffey 1 -8 -15 -22
Marlon Anderson -6 -7 -9 -22
Jonny Gomes -7 -15 - -22
Paul Bako -31 11 -2 -22
Brad Wilkerson -13 -8 -2 -23
Juan Castro -31 8 0 -23
Alex Cintron -16 8 -16 -24
David Dellucci -6 -7 -11 -24
Aaron Boone -10 -13 -2 -25
Richie Sexson -4 -13 -10 -27
Abraham Nunez -27 * - -27
Angel Berroa -27 8 -9 -28
Miguel Cairo -17 -13 1 -29
Jose Castillo -22 -3 -5 -30
Craig Monroe -17 -15 - -32
*Used exclusively as a PH in 2008.
posted by Danny Wind @ 11:05 AM
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